And there's evidence to the contrary! Trump did surprisingly well with young men but he did not win those who said things like "I worry I can't afford a house or kids" -- he won those who said things like "trans men aren't really men"
I'd guess that the 30+ cohort has learned that this isn't actually the case, for better or worse. (Or, at least, if they believe people's reputations can be ruined by speaking their minds, they don't think it's gendered anymore. I'm inclined to think it just doesn't happen much.)
The crosstabs in your survey look really suspect. You’re telling me that there’s only an 11% difference between Trump and Biden voters who both like and trust Elon Musk? A 40% difference would have seemed small to me, but this figure I simply find impossible.
Don't conflate what people on Twitter/Bluesky know about Musk with the general sentiment. Until very recently, he was still seen by way too many people as some sort of apolitical genius, largely thanks to the corporate media reporting. That has only very recently started to change.
Do we know how the apathetic voters that stayed home this round felt? Wouldn't be surprised if the majority of young people with housing anxiety didn't vote instead of vote republican for a variety of reasons. Least being the difficulty in voting or political engagement when housing insecure
this is a subject of active research but i think your intuition is correct: i think many are over-indexing on "what do we do about young men moving right" and under-indexing on "what do we do about young men who are broadly dissatisfied, some of whom the right captures, many neither side does"
Young males will have the longest lasting mental health effects from COVID isolation. They didn’t have support mechanisms. They turned to podcasters like Joe Rogan for confirmation. It will take years to correct.
masculine status anxiety is such a huge element of all of this, but people find it harder to see than other kinds of status anxiety because it's still thought of as just the normal state of being for men
I think understanding that when people say "masculinity" they usually mean "male status" rather than "maleness" is key to understanding like a double digit percentage of anything that happens anywhere
like, "emasculation" makes no sense on the face of it but if you think of it not as a guy being "less male" cause he's got a female boss but as feeling like he's lost status among men it falls into place
It wasn’t just white young men that turned towards Trump and bigotry. Young men of all races got involved in the manosphere and its brotherhood of men of all races against women and LGBTQ people.
This data has produced quite a reaction - how exciting! We have additional research in the pipeline and if this subject interests you I ask that you subscribe at https://youngmenresearchinitiative.substack.com/ to get updates when we have them!
Adding Ns here because a few people have asked. You actually cannot wave away the amount of sexism and transphobia in young men as a small share of the population. It is not.
Very cool data. But do you think geography could explain some of this? If I'm a young man living in a coastal metro area, then a) I am right to be worried about housing affordability, and b) I am more likely to vote Dem anyway, right?
I'd like to see the "Agree Society Looks Down on Men who are Masculine" broken out by Hispanic/Black etc. I feel like a lot of those men just couldn't vote for a woman.
Do the numbers of responses self-reporting economic insecurity roughly line up with what's expected for this demo? If they're significantly less than expected and inversely correlated with the MRA axis this would suggest a different story.
This is exactly why Dems countermessaging by taking these complaints at face value and going "but the economy is good!"
Is such an ineffective waste of money. Their "data wonks" have no framework to glean the complaint behind the complaint, that is a political talent no trove of data can replace.
The difference between all young men and young male registered voters is very telling. Dems could end up reacting to a cultural phenomenon that exists largely among people who don’t vote at all or would vote Republican regardless. Defining the party as opposition to those people could still be best.
Also, the survey was done in July 2024. I would imagine there wasn't much movement from July to November 2024, but I would love to see these questions laid on top of data of actual voters in the election.
We could not sample to an election that had not happened yet but as the table above clearly demonstrates we included 2024 vote intention, that is the point of the post
If your bio is correct you’ve certainly got a better chance than we have. But try Pelosi: she seems to be in charge right now. Biden ain’t doing much of anything.
Interesting data, but it looks like the survey was fielded from July 9-23, which means it was largely conducted before Biden dropped out on July 21. So did the survey team change the Biden label to Harris?
I'd like to see us reach at least some of these young men - not by appealing to their misogyny or transphobia, but ideally with a hopeful vision and genuine empathy for their struggles.
“Gen Z moved right compared to previous elections” doesn’t mean that a bunch of anti-Trump college kids who voted for the first time (and for Dems) from 2018-2022 suddenly turned Conservative in ‘24.
"Back" only in the sense that if they voted MAGA in 2024, I'd like to win them back to "Team Rational" in future elections. I agree with your PoV; I think a lot of the GenZ movement towards MAGA was motivated by factors other than ideological conviction.
It almost suggests Will Stancil is completely wrong about like everything. Conservativism is all about transphobia and racism even though they claim it's the economy.
I feel like his talking points are also made annoyingly with a sea of charts which still have a few holes in them. Particularly how housing, medical, and education costs rise faster than inflation in the US yet he continues to ignore such.
Hardly. The Democratic platform is a nightmare for the uber rich, which is why the vast majority of them jumped ship to Trump as soon as support for him became socially acceptable in their circles. The remaining uber rich Democrats are ideologically committed.
Maybe distilled down further to maintaining feelings of power? The power of the era always manifesting through some form of racism where Dwight Mann is at the top ($$) and the power of the moment where the majority of their tribe shuns anyone not performing sexuality “correctly” (groupthink).
Someone asked how we win these people back. We don't. They're a minority. We stop pretending that it was about the economy. We work on getting our mojo and "glue" back because there are more than enough of us.
Maybe for some low ed white men? A leap in homelessness, economic anxieties esp for minority groups during/post covid, rising rents, weak safety nets, an unprecedented supply chain disruption meant folks were open to Trump’s America first mssg, esp low engagement folks.
It's all status anxiety, which in the very money/job driven us psyche, is in a way economic. Black men with college degrees have made more than white men w/o for a while and now (white) women w/ college degrees are making more. They aren't top dog, or even second and so they will burn it all down
Comments
https://youngmenresearchinitiative.substack.com/p/new-survey-young-mens-trust-in-musk?utm_source=post-banner&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=posts-open-in-app&triedRedirect=true
I’m not sure most biological males are real men… whole lotta man-childs out there (myself probably included, regrettably).
destroyed for speaking their minds these days" by way more than 20%.
Also, I guarantee that men who think this would have their reputations ruined if they spoke their minds. The crap in their minds… eew.
https://bsky.app/profile/jlray.bsky.social/post/3lf3xlouuyk2b
Is such an ineffective waste of money. Their "data wonks" have no framework to glean the complaint behind the complaint, that is a political talent no trove of data can replace.
Is this data representing a subset of voters, or have I been fooled by a narrative?
Attract and keep people aligned with left of centre values instead of further alienating them.
Don't shift right hoping to catch voters who won't vote Dem. whatever right wing carrots you dangle.
“Gen Z moved right compared to previous elections” doesn’t mean that a bunch of anti-Trump college kids who voted for the first time (and for Dems) from 2018-2022 suddenly turned Conservative in ‘24.
"Back" only in the sense that if they voted MAGA in 2024, I'd like to win them back to "Team Rational" in future elections. I agree with your PoV; I think a lot of the GenZ movement towards MAGA was motivated by factors other than ideological conviction.
https://www.liberalcurrents.com/a-disease-of-affluence/
Back in summer 2024, Trump's advantage among young men was indeed among those who had never had a serious relationship!
Yes, I'm mansplaining again. Hard to break the habit. Just call me Captain Obvious.
Hmm.
Dems addressed none of this.
https://www.liberalcurrents.com/a-disease-of-affluence/