Adding on to this, state migration flows indicate this isn’t just rural-urban migration patterns, it’s a blue state exodus to lower-cost Sunbelt states:
And people often respond to the social environments around them. Moving to a more conservative place and getting to know more conservative people can influence less ideological people.
I think that’s especially true for Florida and Arizona, where there’s limited domestic industry; it’s probably a lot of continued retirement-age migration that likely skews conservative, so it’s a net EC/House loss for Democrats.
Yeah, even before the election, it was clear that Arizona had gained more retirees since 2020 than Biden’s 2020 margin of victory. That the state swung so far to Trump didn't shock me.
I'm from Illinois and from what I've read most people who leave here do so for work or because they've retired (snowbirds I assume). We're actually below national average cost of living, and as a union member downstate I do pretty good fwiw
Right. But where are newcomers driving said growth coming from? Republican states or areas? Or swing voters who are veering Republican on the strength of one or two issues (Gaza, immigration, whatever)?
Looking at growth in red cities isn't really telling us anything. Are enough blue voters moving in to shift the partisan divide? Or are red voters trying to live next to each other?
Big shifts in electorate could be achieved by building apartment complexes in the right districts.
Can only speak for Provo-Orem-Levi, the place on the list in which I live, but the people who are moving here are generally rightwards-leaning tech industry people seeking near-0 tax rates for their startups.
This is a percentage growth. In actual numbers of people (randomly selected) Sacramento metro area grew more than most of that list in the same period. There are entire new suburban developments in California larger than these numbers.
The issues with homeowner insurance in FL and their effect on home sales/pricing might radically change the trend lines there. Or maybe the very competent Trump and DeSantis govts will fix those problems...
They added 3 in the 2020 census, and it's doubtful to be much more than that. They can grow by 7%, but if the rest of the US is growing by 3%, their overall percentage of US population doesn't change very much.
Between this and the structure of the Senate, we need to confront the fact that America is engineered for minority rule and there will never be a Democratic government again.
When/if they get back in power post-Trump they need to outlaw the hell out of gerrymandering and push universal registration/easy absentee voting for all it's worth
The Texas metro areas have been turning bluer for the past few election cycles. Unfortunately for Dems, this past election showed a stronger than expected Latino turnout for Trump; midterms, though, given Trump's sinking popularity, might set things aright in several Texas congressional districts.
Arkansas doesn't have a lot of people, and I do sometimes wonder just how many Democrats moving to Fayetteville and Little Rock it would take to make the state competitive again.
Back in 2021 I made a spreadsheet that took the vote margins from the past few elections, weighted by recency, and made this chart that took a portion of marginal voters from each D state to cancel out the margins in R states. I should update it with 2024 numbers!
But no lie, the northwest corner of Arkansans becoming its corporate center with Amazon, fedex and facilities assim makes it the cornerstone to ever flip Arkansas hahah
Kind of like NC, you'd have to balance getting insane turnout in urban areas like that while also ensuring your turnout in majority-minority Delta counties remains strong.
yeah my red as hell state, Idaho and its capital Boise, is apparently projected to gain more electoral votes which sucks, especially because we never go blue unless the country is actively in crisis (last time was 1964)
iirc the growth in idaho is mostly conservatives moving here from blue states
It was a mistake in 2010 not to apply the Apportionment Clause of the 14th Amendment and reduce representation in states that were systematically disenfranchising certain populations.
NC GOP is going to be disenfranchising even more voters by compounding a license renewal backlog the GOP created. Can’t renew your license? No problem. Just don’t! Except you must have a current license with current address to vote. https://unionrayo.com/en/driver-license-extension-usa/
I think it’s naive to even worry about the electoral math of a 2032 election when all of this shit *waves arms around* is happening. I mean GOD WILLING 2032 will be a year when Trump is no longer alive and that alone causes god knows what chaos in the GOP assuming there still is a GOP.
If this is based off the ACS, I am really hesitant to believe it considering how off some of the ACS stuff was last decade as compared to actual census results.
What I meant was that the overall estimates in terms of population growth through 2020 as compared to reality led to some sig. different numbers, and while estimates can be barometers can still be very off.
Trying to remember discussiom of where I read this...
Thinking the GOP will have a durable advantage because of projected changes at least 5 years out is just the flip side of the Carville “permanent dem majority” thesis from the late 2000s. The current party system is very unstable
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Look at where Trump made gains: youth, minority men, white women, etc. NOT retirees!
As someone who lived in fl
People are moving tf away bc of hurricane damage and shit pay
Remains to be seen how much lasting damage the immigration crackdown does to Republican support among Latinos in the peninsula.
Really hard to predict 2030 with so much volatility.
Big shifts in electorate could be achieved by building apartment complexes in the right districts.
https://www.realtor.com/news/trends/homebuilder-price-cut-florida-housing-market/
the House will be trickier.
Still angry and bitter from lack of turnout in 2010
A lot (most?) Of these places are Democratic strongholds.
iirc the growth in idaho is mostly conservatives moving here from blue states
What I meant was that the overall estimates in terms of population growth through 2020 as compared to reality led to some sig. different numbers, and while estimates can be barometers can still be very off.
Trying to remember discussiom of where I read this...