Any story or analysis on consumer inflation expectations or consumer sentiment needs to grapple with this striking partisan divide - ThreadSky

davidmwessel.bsky.social • 72 days ago

Any story or analysis on consumer inflation expectations or consumer sentiment needs to grapple with this striking partisan divide

Reposted from Carl Quintanilla

JPMORGAN: “.. those UMich inflation expectations have a significant split by political affiliation, with Dems expecting 1-Year forward inflation to be 5.1% and Republicans expecting inflation to be zero.” 🤦🏻‍♂️

Comments

skullberg.bsky.social•72 days ago

I'd be curious to know if they're actually saying zero or if that's just as low as the chart goes and they really expect/want *deflation*.

mreddie8976.bsky.social•72 days ago

Well, someone is living in fantasyland...

Which ones do you think?

brianclymer.bsky.social•72 days ago

Simple reason: GOP is not a reality-based party.

abbie4science.bsky.social•72 days ago

is fanduel picking up on these bets?

studuncan.bsky.social•72 days ago

It’s a divide between reality and fantasy.

Which happens to line up along partisan lines.

lightspeedsara.bsky.social•72 days ago

When have Republicans economic predictions ever been true. Remember “trickle down econommics”?

animzovich.bsky.social•72 days ago

Due to their source of news?

erichluepke.bsky.social•72 days ago

Party of rational inflationary expectations vs. party of irrational hallucinations

donnaenn.bsky.social•72 days ago

Here is an idea #jpmorgan . Use the billion dollar brain trust you pay salaries to and figure out what will happen with inflation based on horrendous Trump strategy

stevensays.bsky.social•72 days ago

Notice: Dems expected inflation even under Biden. Dems (mostly) don’t answer questions based on who is in power. The uptick in expectations can be explained by Trump’s tariffs - an inflationary policy.

Republicans on the other hand base their opinions not on reality but if their guy is in charge

mwilbert.bsky.social•72 days ago

This is consistent with recent observations, which is Republicans have roughly twice the partisan skew of Democrats when polled on economic conditions. In this case Democrats something like 1.5% too high, Republicans something like 3% too low.

derpyforcongress.bsky.social•72 days ago

Do you have a link to something about this?

mwilbert.bsky.social•72 days ago

https://www.briefingbook.info/p/asymmetric-amplification-and-the

derpyforcongress.bsky.social•72 days ago

Thanks!

shatterlo.bsky.social•72 days ago

"Republicans expect inflation to be zero." I laughed so hard I snorted.

texastwinkie.bsky.social•72 days ago

Eggs went from $3/doz in N TX in early Jan to $6/doz last week. I'm thinking zero inflation is the wrong answer.

tequila0341.bsky.social•72 days ago

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-consumer-sentiment-drops-inflation-expectations-surge-2025-02-07/

bengalsgaffer.bsky.social•72 days ago

Yes. One party sees inflationary economic actions and thinks “this might cause inflation” while the other buries their head in the sand and says “our chosen one will kill ALL inflation”. A tale of two Americas, to be sure.

knerrm.bsky.social•72 days ago

‘partisan divide’ makes it sound like a two sided problem. Most of the ‘divide’ is created by one side parroting Trump. It’s an ‘irrationalist divide’ - why do we invite people living outside reality to weigh in?

knerrm.bsky.social•72 days ago

Maybe we should stop polling republicans since their replies assume Trump is always right

sciencelizard.bsky.social•72 days ago

I wonder if asking people about their expectations for specific goods (eggs, milk, oil, housing, cars) could remove the signaling?

lenday.bsky.social•72 days ago

O inflation only if MAGAts fudge the numbers. What are those odds?

blacksnakemo.bsky.social•72 days ago

“Striking partisan divide” is an interesting way to phrase “one of these groups is completely detached from reality and historical precedent.”

smlrun.bsky.social•72 days ago

lol maga lives in their own world. even if they r paying more they will deny it. saying trump doing great job while paying more idiots

andlackthereof.bsky.social•72 days ago

Is this bothsidering? GOP expect ZERO inflation. It begs credulity.

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