"We believe the tariffs will be short lived" is fancy wall street words for "he is flying the economy into a cliff, and that would not be economically rational"
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But backing down would involve Trump losing face and admitting he was wrong. Knowing what we know about Trump, is that likely, or is it more likely that he will lash out in an even more extreme and destructive fashion in order to secure his "win"?
All this analysis of strategic goals and rationality seems to me to be missing the point. Trump in 2025 appears to be an idiot entirely motivated by:
1) Self-aggrandisement
2) The need to win, and to be seen to win
3) revenge on his enemies, especially those who he believes have beaten him before.
This isn't supposition, of course - he's explained all this in detail, many times: that every deal has a winner and a loser (and he expectst o be the winner), the importance of "getting even" in every instance, etc. What's new is his mental decline (and his coterie of motivated fellow psychopaths).
In this frame, Canada (the defecit, but also Trudeau and the handshake thing), Greenland (Denmark made him a figure of fun last time he tried to buy Greenland) and Panama (investigating him, ripped his name off his hotel) all make the clearest sense. It's one big id-driven tantrum.
Not to say that no one is motivated by e.g. minerals in Greenland - I'm sure some of his circle are - but all they need to do is press the right buttons to wind him up and keep him in a state of rage (plus the prize of being the great conquering emperor) and off he goes. It's so very very dangerous.
Dovetail that with tech oligarchs like Theil who appear to be in an economic death cult - desiring the destruction of Democracy to rebuilt under the banner "competition is for losers"... instead under the rule of oligarchs like himself.
Well, I guess if you count personal gratification as a strategic goal... yes, we can aanlyse on that basis. If you mean the the various 4-D political chess theories that are flying around, involving some kind of coherent philosophy, on the other hand...
He also hates the IRS after being under audit for years and wants to eliminate income taxes. Somehow thinks tariffs and national sales tax will accomplish that.
Considering we’re talking about the same man who doubled down on his covid idiocy even after it almost killed him — yeah, he’s flying us straight into the cliff, screaming praises at himself the entire way.
There are some courses of action the government could take here that make it irrelevant whether Trump wants to save face. Let’s see if it gets to that point
"Surely no political leader would fling the national economy into the abyss just to score a few political points!" - People with no awareness of the UK over the last nine years.
theres a whole lot of this 'oh we didnt think this bill would actually succeed past a vote' bullshit flying around and all i can think of is every supergenius sitting in the ER at 11pm on the 4th of july, missing most of one hand, because the smell at the end of the day is the same
Everyone needs to remember the last set of economic numbers from the Biden Administration because Trump will be screaming that he inherited the smoking ruin he’s going to turn it into.
No the real Questions is WHY our closest friends are hit much harder and faster and slandered like shit much more than CCP China which was supposedly the main enemy ?
I kind of get the feeling Canada may not unwind all the bans and tariffs even if Trump blinks.
A permanent blockade on Bourbon isn't beyond imagination.
Doesn't really work if the replacement is like for like. If you tot up the £billions wasted, lost and siphoned off to friends and donors - in unlawful deals for non-existent or substandard goods - during Sunak's time as Chancellor and PM, Truss' catastrophic time in government is par for the course.
I understand what you mean. However, we had 14 years of Tory "leadership" and they were all bad faith actors, self-serving bullshitters and gaslighters, driven by the same big money, media men and willfully ignorant maniacs at the ERG.
But none of them were Trump (or Musk). You have my sympathy.
But he doesn’t really care. He could not care less. In fact, he enjoys people suffering. Previous administration he had some people with some conscience, now he surrounded with a different class of monster.
This is that scene in the Dark Knight where the Joker burns his half of the money and the mobsters finally realize he wasn’t just one of them with a silly gimmick lol
they will not realize it right up until they are handed a cardboard box, because it drives them insane that the cringe winemoms saying "orange man is bad and will fly economy into cliff" were 100% right, and the conference rooms of 60 year olds wearing rolexes and expensive suits were 100% wrong.
Thanks to 30 years of government action protecting c-suites from the negative impact of their decisions, they think Trump will protect them and bail them out. And Trump might.
But will Elon? Elon is much more of a sadist than trump.
His chaos is unpredictable. It could be as extreme as:
a) he literally plans to invade Canada and is creating pretext
b) he wants a nice PR release that does nothing a la Colombia and tariffs will be cancelled on Monday
No doubt, though, insiders know and will make boat on SPX options trades.
I recall this from the first term. He would tweet something ridiculous and then a few days later come up with a lie that he talked to Xi Jinping and they worked things out. Market would head back up and ignore the reporting that he never called Xi at all. It's necessary to be defensive.
It's only rational if their goal is to tank the economy, then buy things for cheap and run it like the Balaji tech city with the rest of us as second class citizens.
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But backing down would involve Trump losing face and admitting he was wrong. Knowing what we know about Trump, is that likely, or is it more likely that he will lash out in an even more extreme and destructive fashion in order to secure his "win"?
1) Self-aggrandisement
2) The need to win, and to be seen to win
3) revenge on his enemies, especially those who he believes have beaten him before.
He's easily manipulated, and they like it. His inner circle is happy to goad him into giving them what they want.
Rationality is almost never in question, clarity of the objective often is?
End of the week: uuuuuh guys the 20s are back
Not this one or the last one, but the next one probably. If not that maybe the one after.
A permanent blockade on Bourbon isn't beyond imagination.
But none of them were Trump (or Musk). You have my sympathy.
which would make sense if he wanted to break the country and seize power
but that would be alarmist and going a bit too far, according to the leading experts
He does what he thinks will hurt people who made him feel small. The collateral economic damage doesn't enter the calculation at all.
They can't get their heads around that.
Can't wait for the Dow Slaughter tomorrow. 😵💫
But will Elon? Elon is much more of a sadist than trump.
PRESCIENT.
🫶🏼
https://youtu.be/5RpPTRcz1no?feature=shared
a) he literally plans to invade Canada and is creating pretext
b) he wants a nice PR release that does nothing a la Colombia and tariffs will be cancelled on Monday
No doubt, though, insiders know and will make boat on SPX options trades.
Odds on politicians listening to it low
Gonna be interesting innit?
Ah! Well. Nevertheless,