Yeah millennials watched the stock market drop 50% during the financial crisis. They had enough runway left to recover, but felt the pain enough to learn some important lessons.
Maybe the defining political trait of Millennials will be fear of tail risks and their governing partner will be whichever other cohorts are worried about tail risks. Problem is in 2024 the tail risk argument fell short.
In the wake of Covid it would be irrational to worry about tail risks. One of the ultimate tail events led to more money and a historically good job market.
I'm making a descriptive statement of how people who had that experience would feel. But I wasn't clear and you're on edibles, so I don't really blame you for thinking I meant something else.
Reinventing the three-body-problem VR game for future generations so we can stop living through the same damn cycle of "Should I touch the hot stove? Imma touch the hot stove" over and over.
We are discussing with clients a scenario where the Fed/Congress doesn’t step in with “TARP” or balance sheet increase to stave off the worst of the next crisis. Kind of a COVID without the 2.5T infusion.
It’s the timeline vs the likelihood that we are struggling with. Markets shrugging everything off. We are underweight equities vs benchmark for first time in 2 years, want to play more defense. How long can we look dumb before underperformance becomes an issue. Few months no problem. A year…hmm
I really think if we get through this it’ll be about the time millennials take over and they’ll largely be governing to set up new systems that prevent tail risks in politics and finance (Iraq, Great Recession, trump, musk types).
Like the post WWII types we technically grew up during the roaring 20s came of age with recessions (30s), felt political shock (fascism, WWII) hopefully will win and set up new systems to at least hold it back for another 100 years.
Yup, the people we eagerly want to make the world a better place for (and unlike previous generations don’t accept our kids being better off than us as a given).
The elder millennials remember the post-GFC economy and some of us remember reading about the dot com crash (or seeing its impact on older siblings and family).
This is it or at least a massive factor. Covid was a massive tail event and it was handled in a way that led to many people feeling wealthier during it, and a historically good job market after it. Why on Earth would you be worried about tail risk after that?
Can we just say that Obama admin & his economic advisors @jasonfurman.bsky.social gave us a Trump.
And now folks like @jasonfurman.bsky.social are trying to please the Fascists by defending austerity for the masses in order to create chaos & desperation to consolidate power?
That's maybe true for a segment of white-collar, caucasian millennials (aka the base.) But the evidence is that 2020-2024 saw big wage and employment booms for ppl on the lower end of the wage spectrum (who are more diverse) and they went and voted for Trump.
This dovetails with my theory that Dems will not win again until 2036 unless Rs make such a mess that the situation is dire and obvious (GFC, COVID.) If wage growth/UE rate is ok, Dems lose. Given that their base is richer now, rebranding as the party of tax cuts is a way to steal some leverage.
A more concise way to put it is: Dems are a party that is anti-risk appetite in an era that is risk-on: AI, Barstool, DraftKings, crypto, wage gains for the poor. Hoping it ends in tears (and it usually does) is a strategy. But if it continues, then I hope they're excited for an 8-1 SCOTUS!
Comments
Have you ever heard of the broken window fallacy? Because you’re literally making it.
And now folks like @jasonfurman.bsky.social are trying to please the Fascists by defending austerity for the masses in order to create chaos & desperation to consolidate power?
Cost of housing
Cost of childcare
Can’t be a degen with these overhangs.