Spent most of today driving myself insane learning about CoreWeave. This company is a fucking time bomb. They are burdened by $11 billion in debt on $2 billion of revenue - and they lost $800m. This company is a sickly dog with super-Ebola, and it may be the narrative twist that begins the collapse. - ThreadSky | a Reddit-style client for Bluesky

edzitron.com • 5 days ago

Spent most of today driving myself insane learning about CoreWeave. This company is a fucking time bomb. They are burdened by $11 billion in debt on $2 billion of revenue - and they lost $800m. This company is a sickly dog with super-Ebola, and it may be the narrative twist that begins the collapse.

Comments

gordon-gecko.bsky.social•5 days ago

I'm envisioning a huge 2008 style federal bank bailout but it's AI companies which is beyond rage-inducing

freyamcqueer.bsky.social•5 days ago

I don’t mean to be a doomer, but the gubment doesn’t seem to get it or is being willfully obtuse:

“[Energy Secretary] said. “We’re at the start of a new Manhattan Project. With President Trump’s leadership, the United States will win the global AI race…””

https://www.energy.gov/articles/secretary-wright-leads-ai-collaboration-event-oak-ridge-national-lab

gordon-gecko.bsky.social•5 days ago

It's easy to be a whale about something you want to work when it's with other people's money.

earthgrazer.bsky.social•5 days ago

This is all brilliant news, excited to live through a third once-in-a-generation recession as a result

radicalrealism.bsky.social•5 days ago

If Trump heaps tariffs on top of a 245% unemployment increase--thanks to Musk's indiscriminate firings & contract cancelations--& the AI bubble bursts, we'll have very similar circumstances to the Great Depression.

hahtse.bsky.social•5 days ago

Man, I'd really like to live in precedented times.

mockgod.bsky.social•5 days ago

You are. Global recession. Unless you're VERY young

tararoonies.bsky.social•5 days ago

Lol me too....

einrealist.bsky.social•5 days ago

"Once we have AGI, it will find us a way to solvency." (probably a thought of the CEO)

hahtse.bsky.social•5 days ago

One he blatantly copied from Sam Altman

essaywells.bsky.social•5 days ago

I have always been a little baffled by the argument that a pretend robot intelligence is going to spot something easy to do that eight billion genuine human intelligences have somehow missed.

twotimesjohnny.bsky.social•4 days ago

the first message from an agi would be ‘why did you do this?’

mjlahaye.bsky.social•5 days ago

Dan Nathan had a great tiff on this on his pod yesterday. Almost Zitron-esque.

redgingersonja.bsky.social•2 days ago

I applied for a job there and wasn't selected to be interviewed.
Dodged a bullet!!

maliciousminis.bsky.social•5 days ago

oh boy I can’t wait to see the economic fallout resulting from the collapse of the AI industry

real-xero.bsky.social•5 days ago

Will this be tech’s Lehman Brothers?

its-its.bsky.social•5 days ago

After 30 years in the Bay Area, I’m so sick of tech. The ponzi schemes and egos. I’m going to be a luddite when I retire later this year. Early because I can’t take it for much longer. Sad, because I was do passionate about building!

fadedcolour.bsky.social•4 days ago

I feel you. It’ll be such a gift to your health & wellbeing to leave!
If at some point - after you fully unfurl - you want to contribute your skills again, there are many social good-oriented projects (tech or not) that’d welcome your talent & expertise and stoke rather than dampen that passion 💛

edzitron.com•5 days ago

When I eventually write this newsletter I will explain why CoreWeave - the single-largest holder of GPUs outside of the hyperscalers and Elon Musk (250k+, first in line for Blackwell) - is on the path to oblivion. Microsoft is 60% of their revenue and just canceled some contracts. It’s bad.

jamiesharp.bsky.social•5 days ago

Ouch

gamescan.bsky.social•5 days ago

So...cheap gaming cards on eBay soon? 😁

edzitron.com•5 days ago

Nope

nocatsnomasters.bsky.social•5 days ago

Goddamit. This future sucks.

commodorejeepeep.bsky.social•4 hours ago

No, but we might get HBM-cached consumer GPUs coming back into vogue early.

edzitron.com•5 days ago

“Why should I care about CoreWeave? They’re just a company that sells AI compute!” Well, right now the stock market is already a little sensitive. The AI narrative is losing its shine. NVIDIA is spiralling a touch. CoreWeave is the first real AI IPO - and it’s a dog. Can the narrative survive?

jamiesharp.bsky.social•5 days ago

“Move Fast Break Things” AmIRite?

edzitron.com•5 days ago

I realize that a lot of this may seem dense and like it’s a bunch of finance shit. But it’s very simple: CoreWeave, a company that sells data centers for the AI boom, loses hundreds of millions doing so and is burdened with debt it cannot hope to serve. Nobody is making money in AI. Nobody.

r-condon.bsky.social•17 hours ago

@ezraklein.bsky.social

jamiesharp.bsky.social•5 days ago

We all figured that one, the artists are all still starving

ablokeimet.bsky.social•1 day ago

Good.

edzitron.com•5 days ago

When all of this crap eventually collapses, I want everybody - not just people who read business or finance stuff - to understand who was responsible, what caused it to happen, and what the warning signs were. Greedy people become very rich by hiding behind dense financials. They won’t anymore.

einrealist.bsky.social•5 days ago

Trump will be so dumb to bail them out.

pykeredrock.bsky.social•5 days ago

Sam Altman will remind him of his $500 billion AI pledge and that letting the industry implode will make him look like an idiot, so he will.

jamiesharp.bsky.social•5 days ago

Just waiting for the investors to get a clue

edzitron.com•5 days ago

The funny thing is that what will start the collapse will not be an event, but a shift in investor sentiment that has been taking root for months. They never got a compelling answer for DeepSeek. They never got a meaningful growth story. There’s no revenue. CoreWeave is a dog. No story.

edzitron.com•5 days ago

All of this shit is happening as multiple supposed experts go on specious rants about the idea that AGI is just around the corner as the fundamentals of the businesses are so obviously blinking red that the ethical thing would be to ask how ChatGPT exists past the year 2025. It’s a disgrace.

lordcecilsmythe.bsky.social•5 days ago

What about those companies that have moved or are moving to in-house models? Nowhere near as powerful as the frontier models but can still create some internal impact. Is this not a repeat of the https://dot.com bubble that was supposed to finish of this newfangled 'interweb' thing? 🤔

brittanielewis.bsky.social•4 days ago

Tie this in with the assholes trying to buoy Tesla stock by saying "Oh but they're going to be doing AI stuff in the future."

azpenguin.bsky.social•5 days ago

I’ve thought for a while now that this feels like the dot com bubble. All this money being dumped into AI - where’s the ROI going to come from? What’s the “killer app” that people will pay for? It’s not gonna be pretty when the AI bubble pops.

momsapplepie.bsky.social•5 days ago

These guys never tire of ponzi schemes.

imazined.bsky.social•5 days ago

For a company that is to replace a lot of human white collar workers OpenAI is hiring a lot ...

https://openai.com/careers/search/

zestybasilpizza.bsky.social•5 days ago

Dont worry, when rich people do massive multi billion dollar fraud that's just the entrepreneurial spirit of America. And once the dust settles we should do it again.

jimcaris.bsky.social•5 days ago

As you keep saying, nobody wants this. https://www.techradar.com/phones/new-survey-suggests-the-vast-majority-of-iphone-and-samsung-galaxy-users-find-ai-useless-and-to-be-honest-im-not-surprised

jeffterando.bsky.social•4 days ago

I mean, they will, but let’s make it really fucking difficult for them.

pamnashes.bsky.social•5 days ago

📌

gazbeirne.com•5 days ago

mate I’m using AI to pick lottery numbers and I won £5 last month. now that’s nowhere near what I spent on lottery tickets but we’ll get there - we’ll make some money.

gazbeirne.com•3 days ago

Trust the system

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danod.bsky.social•5 days ago

@unroll.skywriter.blue

unroll.skywriter.blue•5 days ago

The thread as a shareable webpage: https://skywriter.blue/pages/did:plc:qc6xzgctorfsm35w6i3vdebx/post/3ljrcgj4nqk2n.

Powered by @skywriter.blue

arhiippa.bsky.social•5 days ago

Nvidia?

kaffikopp.bsky.social•5 days ago

Just underneath this in my timeline:
https://bsky.app/profile/claesdevreese.bsky.social/post/3ljq56he6322w

powerllama.com•5 days ago

coreweave was in the VFX business for a second and left it to sell cloud gpus for AI. And now some days we can’t get a workstation through our grandfathered plan

rockymtnman.bsky.social•5 days ago

Well the hardware companies are making gobs of money, especially Nvidia, although the hardware could be used for other applications, all the hype they utter is "AI"

themidnightoil.bsky.social•5 days ago

Ed I have to assume you feel like Mark Baum in this scene in the Big Short at all times

https://youtu.be/A25EUhZGBws?si=7dUYFflKSzbJtfqO

edzitron.com•5 days ago

There hasn’t been anything as egregious as the CDOs and I doubt that it’ll reach that. But CoreWeave, out in the open, the company that SHOULD be doing very well, is an absolute dog, a complete monstrosity, and will be a public black eye for AI writ large.

pykeredrock.bsky.social•5 days ago

I mean... It feels like CoreWeave folding could have the same effect on asset-backed securities as New Century's folding was the first domino in the GFC.

Completely open to being wrong, but this read was chilling.

nocleverhandle.bsky.social•5 days ago

CoreWeave feels like the only company, other than Nvidia, that should be making bank on this nonsense.

radlein.bsky.social•5 days ago

WHen even the folks making pans and shovels and blue jeans for the gold rush are losing money, you KNOW things are bad

ornamentalmatt.bsky.social•5 days ago

That's wild I would have assumed they would have been like the store owners during the gold rush who made the money fleecing miners

sallyprovan.bsky.social•5 days ago

I remember reading about subprime mortgages in the months before the collapse of 07/08 and this feels weirdly familiar

edzitron.com•5 days ago

It is different, and I believe the bubble popping would be something different. A lot of the market is propped up by the Mag7 and the Mag7 is like 19% NVIDIA, and NVIDIA has been having it rough. CoreWeave is not a small customer, they have priority on GPUs in fact.

merkur.bsky.social•5 days ago

When this bubble pops, will it be less or more devastating to the overall economy than 2008?

stealthisbook.bsky.social•5 days ago

Oh no! We already know that they lease data capacity to Microsoft, a company that has its own cloud services division, so I suspect these guys are the white label provider behind all sorts of services that would also be scrambling to survive come the deluge

notesonthewayout.bsky.social•5 days ago

Whoa

wcfk.bsky.social•5 days ago

The Gold Rush but even the guys selling shovels are losing money somehow

yorpyorpyorp.bsky.social•5 days ago

B-b-but if we can just re-invent slavery with robots it'll all be worth it, right? Right?

lddstyx.bsky.social•5 days ago

So even the shovel sellers aren't profiting from this goldrush...

Where is all that money going?
Who would be left holding the bag and who would get the loot if the bubble were to bursts today?

bingohandjob.bsky.social•5 days ago

$35bn IPO EVALUATION, BABY... 🤪

jamezb.bsky.social•2 days ago

This is wild. I work for a small VFX company that built a cloud based pipeline on Coreweave technology. Then last December they essentially told us they didn't want our business because they were pivoting to AI. So we started the process of migrating over to AWS.

ik-labs.bsky.social•5 days ago

My favourite part is how it’s run by three finance guys with background in fossil fuels and nfi about tech, and how they already pulled out ~$500 million in cash money out of the company without relinquishing control because that’s how they set up the stock structure.

bifuriosa.bsky.social•5 days ago

So... quite sensible people?

ik-labs.bsky.social•5 days ago

Quite.
Sensible.
People.

2/3, at least.

jelanimccoy.bsky.social•4 days ago

I have to give it to them. They’re good at their craft…grifting investors

billstewart.bsky.social•2 days ago

Reminds me somewhat of the years when the undersea telecom cable market was way overbuilt, lost tons of money,
was bought up for pennies on the dollar, and THEN started getting lots of business because it was priced right.

randallagordon.bsky.social•4 days ago

Check out podcast interviews they've done over the past couple years—the more technical the podcast the better. Not because they get deep, but because they're more willing to just…talk. The entanglement with crypto is appalling.

toppleton.com•2 days ago

Originally they were into mining, then the crypto crash happened and they tried to pivot to selling compute for rendering in movies, then they got completely lotto ticket lucky that AI came along and they could actually use all their GPUs.

There’s zero moat, this is Zoom/Peloton in Covid at best.

dngrs.bsky.social•2 days ago

(sadly we're still very much in Covid)

edzitron.com•4 days ago

Do you have any suggestions? Recent ones?

randallagordon.bsky.social•4 days ago

Their CSO has been on Odd Lots a handful of times, but it'll probably overlap with what you've likely already come across. Digging to see if I can find others in my history.

scrumfy.bsky.social•5 days ago

That’s if you can even trust those numbers. Hoo boy this is some amateur shit. And if those numbers come from cooked books, I can’t imagine how bad the real ones are

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annieruby.bsky.social•5 days ago

I look forward to another high decibel Better Offline EP soon then

fnarf.bsky.social•5 days ago

But...the Metaverse is still going to take off, right? Right? And my Bored Apes?

theryusui.bsky.social•5 days ago

your apes aren't just gone, they were never here to begin with

hylen26.bsky.social•5 days ago

I need a shot of slurp juice.

mikkelsknudsen.bsky.social•5 days ago

https://bsky.app/profile/katie0martin.ft.com/post/3ljpcqznhzk2m

hylen26.bsky.social•5 days ago

That about sums it up.

timburks.me•5 days ago

Maybe they'll figure out how to repurpose their GPUs to IDK... pick strawberries?

paulmwatson.com•5 days ago

It’s a genuine worry that they will repurpose the GPUs for the next bubble. Them or someone with cash who buys them at firesale prices.

ask not what your GPUs can do for you--ask what you can do for your GPUs.

lemringtail.bsky.social•5 days ago

We both know that they'll be repurposed into boiling the oceans for cryptocurrency garbage.

paulmwatson.com•5 days ago

USA Crypto Reserve Partners With CoreWeave.

I think they’ll invent a new snakeoil rather than going back to crypto though. DeepSeek jumped fads.

lemringtail.bsky.social•5 days ago

I'm wholly convinced that Trump is going to use the US Social Security trust fund to buy bitcoins or whatever to bail out David Sacks' and/or Marc Andreessen's crypto investments, so I wouldn't immediately dismiss the possibility of a second wave of techbros with ugly monkey avatars

edzitron.com•5 days ago

There isn't anything else

https://www.wheresyoured.at/rotcombubble/

timburks.me•5 days ago

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lemringtail.bsky.social•5 days ago

Shame they can't be used to render graphics, since my 1060's long in the tooth and there's a new Doom coming out soon and I'd totally buy one at firesale prices.

arcvancouver.bsky.social•5 days ago

Perhaps they should just pivot to mining Bitcoin or the 💩 coins going into the new federal crypto reserve? 🤷

gordon-gecko.bsky.social•5 days ago

Our SS funds getting converted into shitcoins will hopefully radicalize enough people to cause mass protests

lemringtail.bsky.social•5 days ago

I wish I had that faith in my fellow Americans, but the only things that have caused sustained mass protests in the time that I've been politically aware was a man being choked to death by a cop and some folks having to suffer the inconvenience of having to wear a mask at Applebee's or whatever.

lemringtail.bsky.social•5 days ago

lmao, you beat me to it
https://bsky.app/profile/lemringtail.bsky.social/post/3ljreu4fhrc2q

mrnagrom.bsky.social•5 days ago

they’ll pivot to ai generated hentai. rebrand as “WeebMachine”

radioecoshock.bsky.social•5 days ago

Then there's this: Anthropologist Steven Gonzalez Monserrate published his paper “The Cloud Is Material: On the Environmental Impacts of Computation and Data Storage,” (2022). Interview here: https://www.ecoshock.org/2025/03/data-centers-dark-footprint-of-the-cloud.html

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seven3.design•2 days ago

Since it’s clearly the shorter answer… is there anything happening in America that’s not a grift?

mrnagrom.bsky.social•5 days ago

so clearly softbank is revved up and going to invest soon.

randstranger.bsky.social•5 days ago

I'm wondering why they want to do this IPO right now while Trump is frightening the market with his tariff clownshow.

I assume they either think AI valuations will only get worse from here and/or they need cash and existing investors don't want to provide it.

linuxrebel.org•5 days ago

Sir if you put this in a blog or a book or anything else please let us know. You definitely peaked my interest.

edzitron.com•5 days ago

I will be writing it up sometime in the next week. Maybe over the weekend, I dunno. I should have some time off. I have to fly to LA for a big interview for the show, a big surprise for everybody. I have so much on. But there’s so much to cover

mosphotos.bsky.social•5 days ago

Burt Reynolds?

inquirycat.bsky.social•5 days ago

Hope you can get it written before they collapse. Then you can be the man who saw it coming, like Will Smith.

linuxrebel.org•5 days ago

Take the time you need to get it right. I just said this because I'm hoping you won't think nobody will read it.

edzitron.com•5 days ago

So that is generally not how it works for me. I am not writing this thinking about how many people will see it, I am writing it because if I do not write it out and make sense of it in some way it will drive me insane. Despite all this I am actually mentally doing very well

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strayarc.bsky.social•5 days ago

We can tell when the muse is upon you.

danielbayley.dev•5 days ago

Also, glad somebody is keeping detailed receipts, because hopefully one day, there will be some kind of consequences to these fucking grifters.

toastr.bsky.social•5 days ago

Piqued. Not trying to be an ass just giving you a heads up on the right spelling

edzitron.com•5 days ago

go outside oh my god

toastr.bsky.social•5 days ago

Can’t now, too busy going down Sam Altman’s latest rabbit hole.

https://world.org/blog/announcements/introducing-world-chat-connect-send-money-real-humans-world-network?ref=producthunt

linuxrebel.org•5 days ago

No peaked my interest is actually what I meant to say. Sorry come from a different part of the country. But thank you though

toastr.bsky.social•5 days ago

Uh … huh

linuxrebel.org•5 days ago

So I didn't misspell it. I spelled what I intended to say. However, it does appear that I use the vernacular rather than standard speech. I sometimes do fall into that tendency.

soapachu.bsky.social•5 days ago

It's not vernacular to wilfully misuse a word. What you intended was 'piqued' but you wrote 'peaked' which has an entirely different meaning.

thefedexman.bsky.social•5 days ago

so your interest is at the highest point it could possibly be?

footyhead.bsky.social•5 days ago

How do I short a stock?

teufelwolf666.bsky.social•4 hours ago

As it as is an IPO there may be limitations on shorting for the first few weeks.
Shorting is very risky, I would recommend buy PUT options