Interesting chart. This drop could be like the covid one: steep but quickly over if the tariffs are reversed. Or the market could find the bottom the old fashioned way.
we are definitely at the approaching enthusiasm point, where we have all the rationalizations about how this isnt going to end up with us in the shitter.
I think we had disbelief last week, but watching the outflows this week feel like panic might not be the normal panic. I am not about to rationalize an indicator though :)
Funny the labels match the press narratives even:
Returning confidence: trump elected, 0 change of recession headlines
BTD: DeepSeek dip
Enthusiasm: market hits ATH
Subtle and Overt Warnings: read the news people
I vote Subtle. Yesterday was low volume iirc and so the ups could be attributed to that as opposed to the btfd crowd. I think Elon is too much of the focus rather than on the 🤡 giving him cred
Possible delusional dip buying. Market can keep chugging along until CPI and unemployment data force it to reckon with the reality of what the Tariff's are going to do. Right now Tariff's are just news, not implemented policy.
Tell me spirit of downturn's past - Are these the shadows of the things that will be, or are they shadows of things that may be only? I know I can change.
Comments
https://bsky.app/profile/samro.bsky.social have bloomberg terminals which has all the data and they do a good job of sharing.
https://bsky.app/profile/bobeunlimited.bsky.social
you should also follow hashtag econ for a pretty good list
Either
I) below overt disbelief or
II) the little chop fest below overt disbelief before the plunge to panic
or if I’m wrong
Iii) before returning confidence
Returning confidence: trump elected, 0 change of recession headlines
BTD: DeepSeek dip
Enthusiasm: market hits ATH
Subtle and Overt Warnings: read the news people
Disbelief should have occurred earlier, but we're slow, as always.
We're still in the grip of reason.
Tell me spirit of downturn's past - Are these the shadows of the things that will be, or are they shadows of things that may be only? I know I can change.
And I'm pretty sure I'm the only person having any fun in the market right now that isn't an elected official.