Listen, I hate it too but the fact that Trump has dramatically lost popularity by doing exactly what he said he would do underscores the importance of vibes over policy agendas in modern elections
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I think it's also an absolutely damning indictment of the media, which seems to have firmly decided it has absolutely no role to play in informing the public.
I agree that far too many people have abdicated their basic responsibilities as citizens. I'm not disagreeing with that.
But *in addition* to that, our media has undergone a shift in the last 20 years of consolidation into monopolies held by our oligarchs, in a way that most people didn't see.
So, the major media outlets, that the public has relied on to keep them informed, have *really* changed in what their core mission is. And much of the public never noticed.
So they *thought* they were before informed, but they were being misled.
Not only that, every time someone would say project 2025 the times and Glenn Kessler at WaPo would jump through the wall like the kool aid man saying “HE HAS DISAVOWED IT - 4 Pinocchios to the democrats!”
💯! I think what’s been made clear is even “experts” - tech and finance CEO’s - were gullible/culpable promoters/consumers of those vibes. It’s not just a “low information voter” issue. It’s been vibes-based media coverage & decision making at the highest levels.
Yeah when the “experts” are being caught off guard it’s really a media problem not covering the policies he very clearly stated repeatedly and also dismissed the people rightly pointing out the problems with them
The last exception to this rule is probably Johnson's victory over Goldwater in 1964. LBJ promised the extension of Kennedy's legacy, and the nation was still traumatized by the assassination. (2/x)
Nixon in '68 and '72? Won by promising to smash up the Vietnam War, punching hippies, and cracking down on drugs and crime (i.e., uppity negroes). Plus, Humphrey and McGovern were milquetoast establishment guys, for the most part. (3/x)
Carter in 76? A Washington outsider who promised to smash up a corrupt D.C. establishment.
Reagan in 80 & 84? Also a Washington outsider with radical ideas about the economy and foreign policy at a time we were weak in both. That'll beat Carter and Mondale every time. (4/x)
GHWB in '88? A closer call, because he's establishment through and through. But ultimately he's the continuation of the Reagan revolution, and Dukakis was a squishy Dem who wasn't capable of smashing anything. (5/x)
Clinton in 92 and 96? A bad boy outsider (with serious personal charisma) who stood for a counterrevolution to a Reagan era that had run out of gas. Ultimate insiders GHWB and Bob Dole aren't going to win those matchups. (6/x)
Curiously if we're saying "vibes" is "watching your retirement account crater" that seems to suggest that the "vibes" critiques of the Biden economy were actually quite concrete and material, and that they shouldn't have been ignored by liberals.
It's not vibes! It's identity (partisan and racial and economic and religious) with a little sociotropic retrospective economic voting thrown in and filtered through the news media. Same as it ever was.
But I completely agree with broader point that elections are not about policy.
Hmmm, I'd say 1964. Mayyybe 1988. Certainly neither of Bush Jr.'s victories was on policy.
And for all of Obama's strengths on policy, he *absolutely* won on "Yes We Can" and his own charm. This isn't a criticism of Obama, either. He rose to the moment electorally. (I have other criticisms of him.)
Ppl accepted his gaslighting. “I’ll end the wars. I’ll make everyone rich. I’ll cut taxes. Etc You’ll get tired of winning.” The entire world is getting schooled on how to spot a con/narcissist/psychopath. He has no power when his gaslighting doesn’t work and he’s held accountable.
Yeah but that may have been a factor of being promised [big sweeping change] then getting subtle incremental changes for decades, including with Trump 1. If we get a directly Trump caused recession, might reverse that dynamic, at least for trade/economic type things
I wish there were a "Make Economy Good immediately" button.
It doesn't seem to exist.
However, there is this "Break Economy" button that Trump found in a back room somewhere.
when I talk to normal family and friends who don't follow politics in detail, they are often shocked at how much of American society is shaped by the whims of the Supreme Court
IDK Obama promised specifically big sweeping change in healthcare policy, delivered on that, and got crushed in the midterms specifically because of it. Americans vote for big change but seem to hate it when it actually comes. But if you change it back, they'll hate that too.
They’re trying to point out the irony of your post because you assume there will be another election (while you critiqued the OP who seems to believe that Trump is losing support).
Not saying I agree with them, just trying to help you understand what they were saying.
Okay, well that's not something I assume, it was my intention in part to raise that question, so I guess we're just all kinds of misunderstanding each other over here
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‘Ok, but if you vote for him everything you know will get appreciably worse in these very obvious ways’
I DON’T CARE, I JUST WANT SOMETHING NEW!!
<3 predicable months later>
OH MY GOD, WHY IS IT SUDDENLY SO MUCH WORSE IN SO MANY OBVIOUS WAYS?!?!?!
They are citizens and they abdicate their basic responsibilities.
Can you put *100%* of the blame there? No. There is plenty of space to assign blame to the media.
But *in addition* to that, our media has undergone a shift in the last 20 years of consolidation into monopolies held by our oligarchs, in a way that most people didn't see.
So they *thought* they were before informed, but they were being misled.
Fox doesn’t brainwash anyone. Its consumers demand to be brainwashed.
It was WaPo, NYT, WSJ, MSNBC, CNN, Fox, ABC, the vast majority of local news stations, etc.
Reagan in 80 & 84? Also a Washington outsider with radical ideas about the economy and foreign policy at a time we were weak in both. That'll beat Carter and Mondale every time. (4/x)
there is a reality principle but also tension we feel as hate, working together and against each other
love with and against revelation / truth and recognition
knowledge both general
Have the voters gotten a chance to vote on policy they want?
19 million loyal Dem voters just stayed home, and yes, a majority of those voters stayed home because of the genocide.
Who knew the one thing we'd all been taught to stop at all costs would bite us in the ass for supporting?
But I completely agree with broader point that elections are not about policy.
The claim was nothing that biden did or could have done as president matters because people just do vibes.
Trump doing things as president is changing his popularity.
"Material conditions" people never claimed that people were reading policy platforms.
Just one, in fact: “Évidemment”.
And for all of Obama's strengths on policy, he *absolutely* won on "Yes We Can" and his own charm. This isn't a criticism of Obama, either. He rose to the moment electorally. (I have other criticisms of him.)
It doesn't seem to exist.
However, there is this "Break Economy" button that Trump found in a back room somewhere.
you one of them, ain't you
Not saying I agree with them, just trying to help you understand what they were saying.