Agreed. But the main reasons this hot report has me worried are political: it increases the likelihood that Trump will (a) politicize monetary policy, bc the Fed isn't delivering the rate cuts he wants (b) start corrupting the BLS. And after the past 3 weeks, are these implausible? - ThreadSky

pkrugman.bsky.social • 11 days ago

Agreed. But the main reasons this hot report has me worried are political: it increases the likelihood that Trump will (a) politicize monetary policy, bc the Fed isn't delivering the rate cuts he wants (b) start corrupting the BLS. And after the past 3 weeks, are these implausible?

Reposted from Kimberly Clausing

I'll point out that even threatened tariffs can cause price increases as firms accelerate orders/demand in the face of constant supply.

Comments

salomon7.bsky.social•10 days ago

The credibility of US financial institutions will decline and so will the stock market. E.g., companies will begin to scam investors and investors will lose confidence in US stocks. That's just one important area in which US credibility will decline.

ggard4.bsky.social•11 days ago

No. He’s definitely going to try to fire Powell.

hyphenated-4-good.bsky.social•7 days ago

And after the past 3 weeks, these probable?

edwardericsonjr.bsky.social•11 days ago

You're behind the ball, Paul. He's doing these things already.

misterrora.bsky.social•11 days ago

100% chance they rig the BLS numbers.

Trump and his economic buddies have been claiming that the BLS numbers are rigged for years. They will not miss the chance to rig the numbers in their favor.

Anytime they claim fraud, it's an absolute given that they will commit that fraud.

colorado-al.bsky.social•11 days ago

At least we got the Gulf of Mexico renamed...
https://www.denverpost.com/2025/02/12/consumer-pricesjanuary-2025-inflation/

fellat.bsky.social•11 days ago

Trump can try to cover numbers but he'll success only partly.

Even russia has problem with covering reports.

You just need to follow price tags and you will have some educated guess.

richardhserlin.bsky.social•11 days ago

It is stunning that Trump wants to cut interest rates in response to accelerating inflation. It looks like he is just really confident that he will be able to make the BLS lie about inflation.

Absolutely astonishing what has come of our country.

bastillesam.bsky.social•10 days ago

That's what happens when the POTUS, through the SCOTUS, makes people believe that he is the king and the Congress is either complicit or too timid to do something.

freik4all.bsky.social•11 days ago

“Increase the likelihood”? How do you increase from 100% absolute certainty?

cbshere.bsky.social•11 days ago

the words: SUPPLY CHAIN make a massive comeback

ebenshetler.bsky.social•11 days ago

The BEA website is already warning about data going away. I saw this while looking up details on recent GDP components for today's Econ class. (Those data are still there... for now.)

katiecannon.bsky.social•11 days ago

The main problem is that Fascists now own our 💵 printing machine

And you rely on government printed dollars to shop, pay your bank back & net save a 💵

You’ve made tons of government printed dollars

Not everyone has a store of dollars to rely upon

paulj2.bsky.social•11 days ago

No they are not implausible.

rodgilbert.bsky.social•11 days ago

Absolutely. Once Muskovites access the system the data will no longer be able to be taken seriously.
Dems need to highlight this NOW not after it happens or it will just look petty

christosilvia.bsky.social•11 days ago

Trump BLS in a month

jerseypatrick.bsky.social•11 days ago

as we’ve learned, truly good economic data has little to no effect on peoples’ vibes (see for example, Biden). It’s funny the trumpists think fake good numbers would have any rage diluting effect at all.

ronaldjoosten.bsky.social•11 days ago

The book #Trumpenomics will be printed on recycled toilet paper

mtnthc.bsky.social•11 days ago

Did you read @dacemoglumit.bsky.social piece in FT. Seems like a plausible future. But maybe it will happen faster.

hamdangus.bsky.social•11 days ago

Nothing is implausible anymore

blueskyed.bsky.social•10 days ago

Speaking of BLS corruption, the joke in the USSR was that the only real data in the statistics published by Central Statistical Agency was the date of publication.

antonomase.bsky.social•11 days ago

I Was SCARED To Say This To NASA... (But I said it anyway) - Smarter Every Day 293 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OoJsPvmFixU

antonomase.bsky.social•11 days ago

Comprehensive analysis of SpaceX:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cDYt-phUAxY&list=PL-eVf9RWeoWEfSK9mjKe4E67IK1-1vZxB

antonomase.bsky.social•11 days ago

NASA Kathryn Lueder's unique role in approving a extension of a failed SpaceX contract, then being hired by SpaceX:
https://youtu.be/j0uFO6BjWSs?t=1162

juanfoxx.bsky.social•7 days ago

This was a really good way to show how full of shit he is! He’s using the US tax payers money like it’s his own bank account and hasn’t delivered on anything! Not a flight into orbit or a self driving car for more than 10 mins! He’s a worse scammer than Trump!

antonomase.bsky.social•11 days ago

Musk's Objective:
-Run/govern USA via Tesla xAI with Trump XOs
-Use Twitter & Dogecoin as USA payment system
(making payment to IRS would mean Dogecoin=currency)

antonomase.bsky.social•11 days ago

Musk plan:
-Download entire US data infrastructure (Treasury DoD NOAA etc.) to Tesla xAI in Memphis
-Train Large Language Models on the entire US data infrastructure at Tesla xAI (possibly with Palantir)

quadling.bsky.social•11 days ago

Based on Trump's rhetoric about the media, his crackpot economic ideas and his abiding dishonesty, I've assumed all along that the BLS would be one the first places he corrupted. Indeed, it is and will be nearly impossible to trust any federal data for at least the next four years.

jharsin.bsky.social•11 days ago

Even threatened tariffs cause a problem--the steel industry in France, ArcelorMittal, is talking about moving everything to India because of Trump's possible tariffs--also as an excuse not to obey EU air quality concerns, of course.

spacely.bsky.social•11 days ago

First time in my life I have thought maybe the bulk of my savings should be in gold ... 😱

brandogarcia.bsky.social•11 days ago

Not just plausible but likely. How much can Powell stand up to him? Shades of 1971.

eligit.bsky.social•11 days ago

After the justice department let Adams off?
There are no rules now.
Trump can force interest rates lower if he wants.
Guardrails are nonexistent.

retiredandlovingit.bsky.social•11 days ago

Can Trump really force interest rates lower? The short term rates perhaps but, just like the Fed, I don't see how he has much control over long term rates.

eligit.bsky.social•11 days ago

I don’t think we’ve realized how deep musk has his fingers into everything.
Words like “can’t” start to lose meaning.
They’re not just changing rules.
They are replacing the parts of the machine.

stymied.bsky.social•11 days ago

...not even musk can force the bond markets to capitulate to his whims.

sarahb1111.bsky.social•11 days ago

They are going to offer Powell a golden parachute and install the final peice of the puzzle.

cdm.expert•11 days ago

Politicizing the Fed and cooking the books at BLS are both quite feasible now, though the Fed seems to have a bit more asbestos. Meanwhile, us cranks *AND* real economists are pushing hard on the maths used to create the numbers at BLS, for instance CPI.

PS) Regards tariffs: Costs are already up.

snabbkassa.bsky.social•8 days ago

All very bad, but half of Democrats are on board with having the economy and corporations completely shaft poor Americans as punishment for supporting him. After all, the coastal liberal millionaires who are now the backbone of Dem support can just move to Europe for a while.

we-are-toast.bsky.social•11 days ago

Yep. I already figure we've had the last unemployment and inflation numbers that can be trusted. The question is, how ridiculous will they be? If he fires Powel and gets someone to lower interest rates, inflation is going to go through the roof. Stores will be locking up eggs in display cases.

jerseypatrick.bsky.social•11 days ago

Either way the masses will be pissed. i already talked to one immigrant tech worker who was unexpectedly laid off this week. Artificially inflated “great news” won’t mean squat to such folks.

steverodgers1.bsky.social•11 days ago

The economic data will be disappeared once it turns bad.

prisoner37.bsky.social•11 days ago

I know the government is irreplaceable but before the year is done we are going to have to develop and do the best we can with privately produced statistics. And Trump will force fed short-term rates lower adding to the inflation caused by tariffs, threats of tariffs, and general chaos

swiftian.bsky.social•11 days ago

They were convinced BLS was manipulated before Trump (remember Jack Welch famously accused Obama of fixing the stats ahead of 2012 election) so it would not be a stretch to see this admin actually fix the stats.

amicusopus.bsky.social•11 days ago

pov: It bothers me because every Dem official, small to tall, who has read-up on the nature of the political threat we face should be out there talking about how Biden was bringing inflation down through the Inflation Reduction Act and doing it without losing any jobs and how MAGA can't be trusted

amicusopus.bsky.social•11 days ago

to fix current problems they created. A choice.

joshuafaile.bsky.social•11 days ago

Many of us have been sounding the alarm for weeks regarding the danger of illegal and unethical manipulation of economic data (not just through BLS reporting) by Trump, Musk, et al, and how it would destroy the full faith and credit of the United States government and, with it, the US economy.

maumagnificat.bsky.social•10 days ago

Trump already manipulated (inflated- like the persistent hand gestures) BLS data the first term apparently. Recall major revision downwards..like 20%? By then, it's too late he scores the propaganda coup, everything else down the memory hole. Will they have indep.? https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/half-million-fewer-jobs-revisions-hit-trump-economy-n1046156

earforfilm.bsky.social•10 days ago

I'm worried he's going to replace the entire monetary supply with Trump meme coins. We will be worthless in no time.

jimca.bsky.social•11 days ago

CPI using rapidly as noted in today's report. The current administration is slowly going to discover that certain laws are not possible to lie your way out of and ignore.....Law of Economics and Law of Unintended Consequences. Deny, Delay, Defund just won't work. We all are the victims.

trodeljunco.bsky.social•11 days ago

it worked so well for Erdoğan though

https://carnegieendowment.org/middle-east/diwan/2021/12/why-is-turkeys-president-cutting-interest-rates-spurring-inflation-and-lowering-the-value-of-the-lira?lang=en

equinas.bsky.social•11 days ago

I expect them to definitely tamper with BLS computers. When stock analysts can no longer depend on economic reports I expect a wholesale exit from the stock market. They are playing with fire.

theorem1.bsky.social•11 days ago

Exactly. Are there any independent groups that keep track of this information?

scurve.bsky.social•11 days ago

That is like asking if there are there any independent groups that can take the place of the entire U.S. military.

jedca.bsky.social•11 days ago

Hoping that Trump won't politicize monetary policy is delusional. But news of spiking inflation, if the media would carry it, would help degrade his "mandate."

https://bsky.app/profile/jedca.bsky.social/post/3lhydyugedc2d

burkeburnett.bsky.social•19 hours ago

Dr. Krugman @pkrugman.bsky.social , I'm very interested in your thoughts about what sorts of shenanigans Bessent etc. are up to with the Ft. Knox gold audit, the new sovereign wealth fund, etc. Are they planning something very dumb, like trying to put us back on the gold standard?

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