I’m a full on tariff accelerationist now. The American people DEMAND higher consumer prices, and Dems should not stand in Trump’s way on that issue. Ideally get them in place well before the midterm elections
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A GOP controlled legislature is probably smart enough at the margins to not do this, so why not peel off a few Dems to support Trumps tariff agenda? He had such a huge mandate after all…
(I cannot gauge how much irony I am posting this with)
Republicans should prepare to lecture Americans with fancy graphs about how actually they are better off because of all the low value textile jobs that are popping up because of higher consumer prices. Have fun!
education polarization is so bad I think it's an open question whether a Trump CEA can recruit people with knowledge necessary to, like, access the US census trade API
I think American compass, even in their trade-related publications, basically never uses actual detailed trade data for this reason
yes that's the basic jist of it, they pretty blatantly picked a curve that would make the COVID outlook look good based on ~0 underlying theory or evidence
this is unironically the best strategy. everyone is running around screaming "how do we appeal to young men," but you know what is easier than making left wing ben shapiro? letting trump ruin their lives and swooping in 4 years later to magnanimously lower consumer prices
Democrats should publicly state they think it's a bad idea but are willing to do whatever they can to support it for the sake of "unity". Get the benefit of optics but also lets republicans eat shit when it immediately blows up.
Not just tariffs, accelerationism everywhere, in everything, all at once. Surest way to get bored of something is when you have too much of it.
Also, if you accelerate you reduce the duration.
Full steam ahead I say, no resistance from anti-Trump coalition, just documenting
I've been thinking about this for a while. iPhones would be obvious, but machine tools could be useful, especially on the spicier end. If you get a lot of job shops dependant on you, you can get parts made for all sorts of nefarious things
"Oh, you want a smaller federal government? We want a bigger state government. Abolish the federal income tax. It's what you've said you wanted for years, let's do it."
People have it all wrong. Americans love inflation; it makes the numbers big! They were pissed at Biden for halting it. The people demand inflation and we must give them inflation porn!
It’s not that I want people to experience pain, but I think it’s gonna be the only way some of these folk wake up from their fever dream/learn a lesson. Shame the rest of us also have to suffer, but if you can piss off enough people to not vote Repub fine
Trumpflation. The moment it starts every Democrat should be on every platform repeating it over and over, 24/7/365. Trumpflation. Trumpflation. Trumpflation. Can't afford groceries? Trumpflation. Mortgage rates are now 20%? Trumpflation. If it doesn't work we can workshop until something sticks
If we want to really go scorched earth, we should bait him into getting into conflict with the fed at the same time. You'd want to put it back together immediately once back into power, but that's the big red button, and he really wants to push it
No gauze. The first term didn’t hurt enough because we were there with the gauze and burn cream, and all it got us was 71 million people that are convinced the stove isn’t actually *that* hot, it’s all lib fear mongering.
Aren't tariffs something that Democrats don't need to get their hands dirty with because Trump can impose them by Executive Order? He could make himself a lame duck on Day 1.
That’s more or less where I’m falling. If the American people refuse to heed warnings from top economists and POTUS, VP and top dems, let them learn trial by fire 🤷🏼♀️
His victory wasn’t a MANDATE, but the average american wanted this. Let em have it.
By my reckoning there was about a 6-12 month lag in negative effects in 2018-19 concentrated in the Midwest. The initial effect on production of vehicles was 6 months, but it took almost a year for retaliatory tariffs to hit agriculture.
Fuck yeah! Let's build that fucking wall too! I want all funding from every social welfare program diverted towards building a wall so high it will French kiss God in Heaven, whose with me patriots?!?!?!?!?!
The mass deportations will really hurt some people, but with the tariffs there's really no reason not to let him cook. There has to be some element of finding out.
Do we think that in the long term this could function to boost American manufacturing (not saying it’s a good idea, just looking to see if there are ANY silver linings)?
No. The existing tariffs cost about 10x the manufacturing jobs they “protect” (let alone other knock on effects) bc US manufacturing is complex, high-value-added. They need lots of foreign components and material.
Normally i was of the mind that he wasn't that dumb and just use them to blackmail other nations into bribing him, but with his current cabinet picks i'm putting that now at 70% chance of happening
Although I do not endorse Donald Trump, he is motivating me to get a new phone before tariffs go in, so it's impossible to say whether that's good or not
They are a tax that has specific context where they can be reasonable (eg as part of an integrated industrial policy strategy) but they are more or less the worst of the taxes in a vacuum
Well, I'm glad you made something of a jump! We need more smart ppl who are willing to pushback against the echo chamber parts of this place -- even when you mostly agree with their overall worldview! (Goes for you and @alonlevy.bsky.social as well)
I'm with you in theory, but my gut tells me it's got to get pretty bad to break Americans' default view that the Republicans are always good for the economy. Powell should raise rates just to be safe.
I find it hard to think of a way to better educate the American people. I worry that all that will happen when tariffs are introduced is they will just think Trump pushed the "Raise prices" button
National debt is about to be $5 trillion by mid 2026 after they cut taxes, fail to make a meaningful dent in spending, and shrink our tax base by deporting 20 million taxpayers.
Midterms are gonna bit lit.
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This would be more of a form of protest.
(I cannot gauge how much irony I am posting this with)
BACK AGAIN
It doesn't matter if the prices go up bcuz the right wing media will spin it as the fault of the Dems.
Then the traditional media will play along in their never-ending fight to seem fair an balance. Ppl will blame the Dems
I think American compass, even in their trade-related publications, basically never uses actual detailed trade data for this reason
stonewall everything else
Also, if you accelerate you reduce the duration.
Full steam ahead I say, no resistance from anti-Trump coalition, just documenting
And dems can have some gauze ready
His victory wasn’t a MANDATE, but the average american wanted this. Let em have it.
So, it is time learn our lesson:
They, from what I've read, did not think Kamala would change things. But couple a dinner-table Dem with rage over out of control tarrif inflation...
Midterms are gonna bit lit.