Their biggest oversight is that they assume this is just business as usual, even though this administration vowed radical changes and is basically trying to purge a third of the country from having any political influence or hope of regaining influence.
Correct answer is probably "All of the above." Some will get pulled back, some will go up, some will get turned off and back on; all of this nonsense will go on for as long as he is in office.
TBH, my guess is that who gets affected and for how much depends more than anything on who is the last person to talk to him at Mar-A-Lago on any given night and if they upgraded to a suite.
on the bright side, this basically guarantees we won't even get any of the upside of protectionist trade policy cause none of these people are gonna invest in us factories
I think tariffs will be reduced in a willy nilly hodge podge way. Unpredictably and Inexplicably probably due to poorly managed quid pro quo negotiations. People trying to conduct actual business will be flummoxed and frustrated. But you can’t make a frittata without breaking any eggs amirite
This reminds me of when my Mag 7 employer emailed us after sending everyone home during the early days of the pandemic and said "We'll probably be back to the office in a month or two."
I remember talking to c-suite clients about how to rapidly transition to work-from-home in late March 2020 and everyone was working on the assumption the pandemic would last about two weeks, tops.
When I suggested planning for 3+ months of impact everyone thought I was a crazy person.
I literally made the personal call to work from home two weeks before the company sent us home and our manager was like “do you guys think the company is responsive enough?” And I just yelled “no it’s a fucking global pandemic” during one of our team calls 🤣
I mean this doesn’t sound unreasonable. After the dust settles, I think it’s almost guaranteed that some tariffs will be reduced in the coming months. It’s more a question of the extent of that reduction.
Tarriffs will continue until *CONGRESS* acts, either to overturn the tarriffs or impeach the mf, otherwise the best you get is a rolling 1 month postponement
"Will congressional Republicans become more scared of the tanking economy than they are of Trump and if so, when?"
The bankers think this will work like COVID, where Congress decided pretty quickly to save its own portfolios. I honestly hope they're right, but I don't think they are.
"He only said he was going to do all these terrible things! We never thought he'd actually do it!" From the "I like that he tells it how it is" crowd. Not even internally consistent logic in their broken minds.
As someone who thought he would do tariffs, I’m still at B. He’s quick to back down from a fight and other countries recognize this. He’ll call it a win and back off
Him doing something stupid when he get's little pushback is different from him backing down from something stupid when he get's a lot of pushback. And republicans don't seem all that enthusiastic about it now that shit get's real.
I flip-flop between "He isn't going to back down this time" and "Fox News is already making up stories about countries 'begging' to negotiate as cover for when he inevitably backs down."
Yeah, my view is the countries have all been hit so it’s going to take the EU or some other large group threatening a nuclear option and he’s going to back down while claiming a win.
I'm betting on he doesn't back down cause he's totally checked out and just wants to golf and arrange the Liza Minnelli honors, let the teen groypers do all the work
You don't just pop back from a massive heart attack. The US is now "The Dispensible Nation." How and if it can recover some of it's position in the world is an open question. China is the ascendent superpower, like it or not.
This is quantified by time but not by level of reduction. A more meaningful survey would be: 6 months from now, total tariffs are at: 0-25% of new Trump levels? 25-50%? 50-75%? 75-100%? 100-125%? More?
I think they’ll be reduced a lot. It would be nice—though temporarily terrible—if Trump pushed through a massive recession. It would probably ve the end of Maga. But I think Trump is too smart for this. He’ll extort every CEO and world leader with these tariffs, lowering in exchange for loyalty.
I’m saying he can reduce most tariffs by 50-100%, depending on which countries and corporate leaders be d the knee to him.
Then the economic damage won’t be that severe. Bad but not major. And his credible demonstration of harm will convince powerful persons to continue to roll over for him.
I don’t think Trump is too smart to make major preventable errors. He has good media instincts, but he’s completely surrounded by ppl who constantly tell him how amazing and brilliant he is. No restraints whatsoever like the first time
Prices aren’t going down after they’re raised. The gambit only works if the negotiations happen fast fast fast. And that’s assuming he’s not serious about forcing manufacturers to move back to the US, which I’m not sure about. Yes, he wants to extort, but he also wants to radically change trade
Lizardman’s constant for the 3% who are just living their best life and would like you to stop asking them questions about tariffs, despite their stock portfolio plummeting in value
Admin and SCOTUS is setting up a whole whackadoodle legal theory that President can fire anyone. SCOTUS knows entire economy would be effed if Fed independence is questioned so are trying to say the Fed is different Bc Reasons but it's really strained.
He's counting on all of this to make demands and to pocket bribes. Though much if the bribery may be quiet and from companies and a myriad of wealthy figures. And crashing the US economy allows the rich to get richer while strengthening maga's authoritarian hold.
G: Chaos. Tariffs added/removed on a whim because when you have a lever that can make the stock market go up and down, it's just a "fun" way to make money *and* piss off people you don't like.
Actually, I also believe some tariffs will come down soon. Just watch VN case. It has never been about tariff revenue, it has never been about bringing back manufacturing jobs back to the US. It's always just been about deal making for ....
It's possible that they're so bad that Republicans in congress rescind the national emergency that enables him to do the tariffs, thus voiding them without his input, but that's pretty optimistic and isn't really trump pulling the tariffs so much as the tariffs getting pulled despite trump
Financial analysts blindly bank on return to normal despite being wrong for years. It's trained into the models. They have no idea how to predict WWIII
at the risk of seeing ol Donny Trump wriggle out of this one, it does feel like fucking up the money this bad will have consequences even he can’t ignore
You could elect the reincarnation of MLK Jr tomorrow and I still don't think I'd ever visit your country again. 70M+ people voted for this. They weren't duped into voting for him. 99% of the things he's doing, he said he was going to do
I'm just not going to go to a country with 70M insane people
If we can find just 10 years of stability in governance we could turn things around. And also get rid of rupert murdoch's media influence. His damage can't be overstated.
So 33% think a billion factories will show up, be fully staffed and producing in 3 months? Of course, I know we can't even produce all we need in the states, this is just hilarious.
But regardless, why is it ok in their minds for a president to be this insane? They didn’t take THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES seriously? Listen to yourselves ffs. That sentence is disqualifying
My biggest fear is that today's mass protests will be infiltrated and turned violent at his behest. Luckily my fears look unfounded so far (and I hope they stay that way because I'm heading out now to my own local one!)
There are some other questions that must be asked: if tariffs are lifted, why? How much will GDP drop/unemployment rise/inflation rise when they are lifted? How long will it take to recover to pre-inauguration levels? Trump is too stupid to fix what he breaks.
Comments
It's not delusional, it's sweet revenge of the King
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/here-are-stay-home-orders-across-country-n1168736
I don’t think this is a terrible spread of outcome guesses.
Tricky because I think F but it’s not exclusive with the others.
When I suggested planning for 3+ months of impact everyone thought I was a crazy person.
Ok it might but it won’t be that bad
Ok he’s going to, but again, it will be nothing
That’s a lot, dang. It can’t be long though
It can’t last more than a few months…
The bankers think this will work like COVID, where Congress decided pretty quickly to save its own portfolios. I honestly hope they're right, but I don't think they are.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RJK6oJ_fp_c
But that means I have to plan for “I just took a 30% pay cut”
Fuck you very much, Donald Trump.
Then the economic damage won’t be that severe. Bad but not major. And his credible demonstration of harm will convince powerful persons to continue to roll over for him.
https://bsky.app/profile/subpoenis.bsky.social/post/3llx5wyogvc2w
https://bsky.app/profile/nathan.iharig.com/post/3llzgj6fsxc23
https://bsky.app/profile/sky.skymarchini.net/post/3lm4d3zrksc26
G: Chaos. Tariffs added/removed on a whim because when you have a lever that can make the stock market go up and down, it's just a "fun" way to make money *and* piss off people you don't like.
If tariffs went away tomorrow, I don't know that people would stop removing the US from their plans.
They're not giving "stable, reliable, & trustworthy partner" right now and the risk is too high.
The problem is it’s not easily fixable. If we reverse course who wants to do business with a partner that could change everything tomorrow?
Getting rid of Trump doesn’t solve this either. The American electorate itself isn’t trusted now.
I'm just not going to go to a country with 70M insane people
People tend to wait until the horror is right in their face so they have no choice.
Or worse, create one to justify complete authoritarian control, a la Hitler’s Reichstag Fire…
https://encyclopedia.ushmm.org/content/en/article/the-reichstag-fire