Still wondering what happens to the overall US economy when just about the entire federal workforce, plus direct contractors, plus anyone else who is indirectly funded, suddenly cuts back sharply on spending because they don't know they're jobs are at risk (or worse, for those already fired). - ThreadSky

jonathanbernstein.bsky.social • 9 days ago

Still wondering what happens to the overall US economy when just about the entire federal workforce, plus direct contractors, plus anyone else who is indirectly funded, suddenly cuts back sharply on spending because they don't know they're jobs are at risk (or worse, for those already fired).

Comments

joybrk.bsky.social•9 days ago

That's the plan to deal with inflation: unemployment and recession (if we're lucky).

themaltesemama.bsky.social•9 days ago

yes but they will be firing all of the economists and data scientist so we won’t be able to know the impact of their disasterous policies.

jonathanbernstein.bsky.social•9 days ago

And again: despite almost all recent recessions starting with a Republican in the WH, there hasn't been a recession during times of unified GOP government since 1953. And before that, 1929, which you probably know about. The chances that this gang would botch a downturn seem very, very high.

onemontgomery.bsky.social•9 days ago

Nobody ever blames the economy or Recessions on Congress. HW lost in 92 because of the economy and if W had been in his first term in 08, he would have gotten destroyed. Whether the economy tanks this year, next or 27-28, it's all Donny's.

mavill.bsky.social•9 days ago

Massive great recession style unemployment - you'll see 6% or more - state budgets will get hit.

It will be bad.

mavill.bsky.social•9 days ago

My hope is that the feedback loop is short, unemployment ticks up, Trump panics and some courtier used it to knife Musk/Doge, the court cases are ongoing and the bleeding is temporarily stanched as some of the cuts are rescinded - but that's best case

zucko.bsky.social•9 days ago

I'd bet you aren't wondering and in fact can easily predict what will happen tbh

onlyoneplanet.bsky.social•9 days ago

Yep, a recession is coming. And soon.

daveon.bsky.social•9 days ago

It craters.

ejfagan.com•9 days ago

In the same quarter that massive tariffs hit.

monewsdaily.bsky.social•9 days ago

It crashes

hoptimusprime.bsky.social•9 days ago

I believe the technical term for that is “sand into glass level depression”.

secularjen.bsky.social•9 days ago

Plus, count on sharp spending cutbacks by all who are in solidarity against the criminals wrecking our government. ✋️

marontheweb.bsky.social•9 days ago

I'm not, seems pretty obvious

rosemaryd52.bsky.social•9 days ago

I don't know how big the non-profit sector is in the overall economy, but it will be greatly impacted. I'm hearing that they and their funding partners are scurrying around trying to plan for a very uncertain future. And then, there's the impact on those that they serve, often vulnerable people.

rrtrent892.bsky.social•9 days ago

And tons of money is withheld from loads of institutions that employ thousands of people across the country. I'm sure it's fine. Oh and costs go up b/c of tariffs.

doyle.boston•9 days ago

To say nothing of at some point a vital thing will break due to sheer lack of individuals watching the store

daveon.bsky.social•9 days ago

Or the people who did -thing- are all gone and -thing- isn’t done.

Like, say, run Social Security payments.

zenmedication.bsky.social•9 days ago

Yeah as an academic I am already in no-spend mode and will be for the foreseeable future

garyfinkc.bsky.social•9 days ago

But more tariffs, and mass deportations of workers will help offset this, right? /s

thejasonlee.bsky.social•8 days ago

Same! Will spending on immigration roundups offset? But then ag and construction costs will sky rocket.

vivekr.bsky.social•9 days ago

👀 on the DC suburbs especially in MD.

stankloaf.bsky.social•9 days ago

I'm trimming positions in my portfolio.

sixnein.bsky.social•9 days ago

I think their argument is that it drops aggregate demand enough to where the federal reserve can lower interest rates.

They are afraid of those interest rates for sure.

sixnein.bsky.social•9 days ago

But other policies that they are doing like extending tax cuts and tariffs will counter that effect.

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