It's a stock grab, or an attempt to exert private favors and favorable public promises from other countries. Just a "bargaining" tool for the embezzler in chief.
Nobody believes it but everyone has also kind of tacitly accepted that he’ll do it if he wants to and we’ll deal with it then. Is what it is. More tedious than anything.
They don't believe he will do it! I think he'll monetize the requests. You wanna keep ur illegal workers? That'll be $100 per.... dude
You wanna lift tariffs? A million per country
It’s incredible… not only does the SnP never go down for even 45 minutes, futures can’t even go down for 1 hour without fully rebounding 30 minutes later. Absolutely astonishing.
I work at a major bank and the message we rec'd is that the regulatory "burden" will be less, M&A's will go thru, interest rates for CC will not be capped at 10% (just Trump campaigning to respond to Bernie Sanders), and Trump will not do punitive tariffs. They still think they control the monster
Meanwhile I remember all too well last time he was prez and I got caught flat footed with an empty larder when the lockdown hit. This time I’m stocking up before the inauguration even happens. Costco here I come!
“Trump will never do the thing he did his first term” seems like a faulty appraisal of risk, esp since Trump insists he’s going to do it in a bigger way
A close friend of mine (Rockefeller Republican) doesn't think he'll do any of it - "it's all just a negotiating gambit." I didn't ask her how she could be so sure of that.
Seems likely he’ll keep threatening it until he gets some inconsequential bauble in return for dropping it, which he’ll then treat like the crown jewel of dealmaking
But if it affects even a large minority of small businesses who can’t afford the bribes (or figure out how to deliver them) it’ll still cause a recession leading to consumers not being able to buy their products and services!
Think some of them still believe that this is primarily economic policy, rather than being Trump's way of punishing the countries that he believes weren't sufficiently subservient to him in his first term.
Would love if someone could get some random trump person on the record answering whether these tariffs will apply to natural gas…it’s like 6% of our daily supply…
Shouldn’t it worry us all a bit, though, that he’s running around making empty threats and imagining fake problems, when a real crisis that requires his full attention might be right around the corner?
I have to imagine there’s an expected value calculation going on with most investors where the primary variables are “X% he won’t do it” and “Y value at risk before we can get out of the trade”
And a lot of investors probably feel overconfident that they’ll get out faster than the other folks
Because they think they can coax a fellow patrician that the idea is akin to shooting yourself in the dick, but he’s a damn near eighty sundowning mad king.
I think they're betting on being able to bully and cajole him because he's weak and easily bored, and if he gets close to actually implementing one of these things equities will tank and he'll freak out
it makes sense enough, but it's a real big bet with very high stakes
he physically does not know how to, for example, write executive orders or even manage the people writing executive orders, leading to someone swiping the tariff papers off his desk Gary Cohn style
And it's not some complicated scheme. The policy dials and powers clearly exist already. His sec of treasury thinks if it jacks prices up it means everyone will be poorer so no inflation.
The question you should be asking is how ‘unpopular’ a dead end administration can get in furtherance of an ideological policy. How many millions of well paid, well armed right wing cops in this country will go along with whatever this is? I guess we’ll find out.
I think the assumption is less he won't do it and more that there will be some superficial way he declares victory and calls it off like last time. But this time he's declaring war on everyone
The funny thing is those are the types of people he has in his bubble, so he'll continue to be oblivious to how deeply unpopular his tariffs will actually be, and will be more likely to go ahead with it
I hope he does it. I want as many of the under-informed folk who voterd for him because they thought he would magically lower prices to realize he’s a fraud. Short term losses in the economy for a long term win for democracy.
hi, this is unrelated but you should update your handle to be https://chrishayes.org since that site is famously yours and you definitely verify yourself by doing that
also add a HTTPS certificate to it because visiting the site throws the insecure connection error now
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and if he doesn't end up doing them they weren't priced in
You wanna lift tariffs? A million per country
Also, they know they can control him since he wants to be liked so bad. 🤷♂️
Also, Americans are already up 15 points on the economy since the election. 🤷♂️
Trump will hold off on tariffs if markets react badly, markets holding off on reacting badly because they think Trump will hold off on actual tariffs.
Who blinks?
And a lot of investors probably feel overconfident that they’ll get out faster than the other folks
it makes sense enough, but it's a real big bet with very high stakes
Also they know he's a liar, they voted for a liar, just not one that will hurt them.
I think we need a new metaphor, the leopards one is getting old
will it work? I mean, maybe not, but it's not crazy to think it could work.
and most outlets will report on the success of the Trump Tariffs
also add a HTTPS certificate to it because visiting the site throws the insecure connection error now
The talk of them being priced in makes no sense.
Anymore than when I posted charts of the NQ futures selling off immediately after the tweet.
But the bigger picture of the charts tells a more compelling story.