ethanbdm.bsky.social
Studying accountability, national security, electoral accountability, political economy, tech & society, applied game theory @HarrisPolicy
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Just here to say that Crossing to Safety was written in your lifetime.
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Ruth Reichl's turkey and white bean chili with tomatillos is out of this word.
Obviously, cook your own beans (ideally, Mayocoba), do not use canned white beans.
In all other ways, the recipe is unassailable.
cooking.nytimes.com/recipes/1026...
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There is nothing anyone can say that will convince me that Automatic for the People doesn't mark the scholcky, melodramatic, overwrought end of a once great jangle pop band.
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I'd like to believe that they wouldn't have lost their relevance if they hadn't sold out with Automatic for the People.
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Note: "prices" could be replaced by "people" and the centrality for policy analysis would be unchanged.
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Considering packaging this line and calling it a policy degree:
"prices are wily and mostly not under your control, and will often make a mockery of your neat welfare objective"
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She is now a psychiatrist specializing in the treatment of eating disorders.
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Following publication of one of the early caloric restriction papers, my college roommate starved my goldfish (which she was 'taking care of' for the summer) to death in an over-zealous attempt to make it immortal.
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I feel certain my paper does not justify that policy proposal without further assumptions.
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I agree.
I was referring to my earlier point about voters caring about campaign promises.
I can imagine reasonable voters who think that vote-relevant, even if they agree it has nothing to do with fire response. (Can also imagine reasonable voters who think it an unimportant triviality.)
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I 100% agree that in your role as a voter it is for you to decide.
Just not in your role as a social scientist.
Anyway, I think we agree on the conceptual matter.
I hope you and yours are safe.
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Also, a key point is that, even if info is unbiased there's a systematic correlation between info revelation (e.g., a disaster) and incumbent electoral fortunes.
That is, even if on average information is average, it has an effect on average.
The result doesn't depend on most info being bad.
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I leave it to voters to determine that.
For instance, I don't think it is for you or me to tell voters that they should or shouldn't care whether the mayor broke a campaign promise. That's up to them.
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I'm certainly not taking a position on whether the mayor is doing a good job, or on LA/CA politics.
I'm open to the possibility the fires are revealing that the leaders of LA and CA did a good job, I don't know.
Our point is about political science and the current disaster is illustrative.
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Tangential to the fires. But info about incumbent voters didn't know absent fires.
Our point is the effects of information (good or bad) revealed due to disasters is included in estimates from regressions of electoral fortunes on disasters and shouldn't be expected to average to zero.
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People who disagree with Achen and Bartels' conclusions from shark attacks ?
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One kind of information revealed is about fire prep.
But other information is revealed too. For instance, many voters wouldn't know the mayor broke her travel-related campaign promises w/o the fires.
This may be relevant to voter evaluation independent of whether it mattered for fires.
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Just speculating, but linking health insurance to employment seems like it reduces labor mobility and thus wages. Once an employer has born the fixed costs of setting up a health insurance system, it seems like they now benefit from this lock-in.
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I can imagine an incomplete contracts justification.
Some actions might violate the law, but be agreed not to violate the spirit of the law in hard to specify ways.
The legal system might have no alternative but to convict, but in egregious cases an individual exercising judgment could pardon.
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Good lord.
I didn't know about this and just watched the trailer.
Turning Dylan into sentimental, melodramatic treacle; how could that not be a good idea?
At least I'll take comfort in the fact that he'll be laughing all the way to the bank.
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Going home, I take it?
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Not to go all university administrator on this thought experiment, but in this imagined world, do we still use classrooms to teaches classes on a regular schedule?
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Would there be in-app purchases of lousy beer for $30?
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If I had done something this legendary, I definitely would not hide it.
There is a name attached. But I fear the story may be apocryphal.
I did not see it with my own two eyes.
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There's a famous political scientist who often says all results of formal models are obvious (which I take to be a cousin of this claim).
There's a story of a junior theorist setting up the model in a talk, stopping, and saying, "This would be the moment to tell me the results, if they're obvious."
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could be worse, could be peaches
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Pears are only to be eaten at home for breakfast or dessert.
Apples are for the work day.
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Is that true, empirically?
Putting definitions aside, do we have data on how often limited military operations are followed by a full war vs stay limited?
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I took undergrad economics from Bob Lucas; I feel like he would have approved.
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Not sure.
But I have always enjoyed Steve Earle's take.
Both because Townes is amazing and because it is consistent with the key empirical regularity: whatever answer someone gives, they know person they have to defend it against the alternative of Bob Dylan.
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Is this one of those "wrong takes only" posts?
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Not being able to see the original post is a bit of a disadvantage here...
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The thread whose theme is that you've grown accustomed to having a dean with impeccable judgment?
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Look, Kieran, without a credible research design, can we really say anything based on past experience?
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I understand. It is a fraught moment.