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frogjumpsin.bsky.social
Geo/political risk analyst of Japan, East Asia⎮Public policy Ph.D.⎮ 🇮🇪🇯🇵🇺🇸
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My sense is many thinking it, few or none saying it. The question is when that changes.

NEW!!! You asked, we listened: Trump's Trade War Timeline 2.0: An Up-to-Date Guide Bookmark it! www.piie.com/blogs/realti...

Love this! 👇🚂

I’m not a fed but living in DC means I’m surrounded by feds. What this author describes has been an underreported part of the story. It’s not just the reckless firings. The psychological toll that this admin’s policies have on those still in the federal workforce is also cruel and destabilizing.

The price may as well be $∞, because I haven't seen a DMV supermarket with eggs in stock for weeks.

“Countries such as Britain and Japan that have not yet been singled out for tariffs might breathe a sigh of relief. But.. [i]f Trump decides that his first tariff war has worked, he will certainly look for new targets.” www.ft.com/content/ba1c...

I hope, a year from now, this reads as wildly overwrought and hysterical in tone. danieldrezner.substack.com/p/the-econom...

Just checked out some Japanese YouTube comments responding to news about US Secretary of Defense Hegseth signaling that the US wants Ukraine to surrender part of its territory to Russian invaders. It doesn't look like he's inspiring confidence in US pledges to protect Japan.

Tamaki Yuichiro of the opposition Democratic Party for the People has tweeted out a defense of USAID, stating that he once worked with them on an irrigation project in Jordan that was "highly meaningful." He called on people to stop spreading misinformation about USAID.

Were the Trump 1.0 tariffs worth it? According to Brookings, "studies suggest American consumers paid about $817,000 in higher prices attributable to the tariffs for every job created in the washing machine industry and $900,000 in the steel industry." www.brookings.edu/articles/did...

Imagine seeing a bill like this in the Duma.

As the US radically shifts its trade policy philosophy away from WTO principles, will Japan emerge as one of Donald Trump's most favored nations? Some of my thoughts in this CNBC article on how Asian economies are responding to Trump. www.cnbc.com/2025/02/11/a...

"which is presently underway"

The 2018 steel tariffs just called to remind you that steel is produced by a tiny sliver of the economy, but used as an input by a much broader swathe of manufacturers. https://buff.ly/42ReSrr

US-Japan joint statement. Skimming through it, it checks all the usual boxes...oddly normal in these deeply abnormal times. www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-st...

President Trump praised Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba and said that Abe Shinzo "thought the world of him." This must have come as a shock to a lot of right-wing pundits and media outlets in Japan, who had speculated for months that Trump would dislike Ishiba because he was a political enemy of Abe.

“Washington is no longer a values partner, and the damage it is doing today will echo for years, perhaps generations. The sooner allies—such as Korea—understand this and calculate accordingly, the sooner they can adapt to surviving in a new world of predation.” www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/opinion/...

I thought it was only Japan that was held back by gerontocracy?

Asian markets getting hammered on the first day of trading after the Trump tariffs were announced: South Korea's KOSPI and Japan's Nikkei both down about 2.5% in early trading...

This is what happens when you ask me to help sanewash the Trump tariffs.

As someone trained as a trade economist, it is my duty to share the 1929-1933 Kindleberger Spiral, showing the month-month decline in global trade due to the combined factors of the (global) Great Depression and retaliatory tariffs. Smooth Hawley is implemented mid-June 1930.

“US trade policy since 1995: from WTO to WTF?”

Yeesh. Japan is mulling investing big money in an Alaskan LNG project that's been languishing for years NOT because they think it will be successful, but because they want to avoid tariffs. Market inefficiencies. How do they work? www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

Japan's government will ensure that voluntary contributions no longer fund a U.N. committee dedicated to battling discrimination against women in protest at the panel's recommendation to revise the male-only imperial succession law, MOFA said on Jan. 29: www.asahi.com/ajw/articles...

First Trump-Ishiba summit looks set to be held next Friday (7 February) here in DC, Asahi are reporting www.asahi.com/articles/AST...

BOJ's median policy position will likely become a bit more hawkish following this appointment. Junko Koeda appears more openly supportive of rate hikes, whereas Seiji Adachi was seen as a (pragmatic) dove.

And they’ll have to do it without coffee.

Similarly, a new Kyodo poll also puts the DPP at around 14-15%, behind the LDP and ahead of the CDP. A possible structural shift emerging in opposition support among voters.

Remarkably, the Democratic Party for the People placed second (15%) behind the LDP (32%) in this new Nikkei poll of party voting intentions for this summer's Upper House election. And among those aged 30-40, the DPP placed first. www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZ...

BREAKING: South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol has been formally indicted. Yoon is the first sitting South Korean president to be indicted and criminally investigated. This is a breaking story that will be updated. www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/0...

Useful discussion here

Trump talking like this about KJU on Day 1 is not great news for South Korea or Japan, who would surely prefer to see Trump preoccupy himself with matters other than the Peninsula.

"Sources close to the matter" indicate a rate hike to 0.5% at the BOJ meeting ending Friday. Ueda himself has been chronically unable to communicate intentions clearly with the markets, but the leakers always seem to get it right. english.kyodonews.net/news/2025/01...

For its coverage of South Korean President Yoon's arrest, Japan's TBS news had its arts & crafts team create a model of Yoon's jail cell. www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Xzn...

This is a beautiful tribute.

America should run on Mister Donut.

United States Supreme Court rules 5-4 that South Korean authorities cannot arrest President Yoon

Significant development—Kim Seong-hoon’s detention implies the security dam around Yoon has been breached. en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN2025...