jeremycliffe.bsky.social
Editorial Director and Senior Policy Fellow, European Council on Foreign Relations (@ecfr.eu)
https://ecfr.eu/profile/jeremy-cliffe/
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Merz, Scholz, Weidel et al are on ZDF’s “Berliner Runde”, a first encounter between major parties. Merz is asked about Kenya coalition. Doesn’t address the question but rules out deal with AfD. Weidel talks of a “Pyrrhic victory” and accuses Merz of stealing AfD policies.
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Significant! BSW has just hit 5.0% on the latest projection. Would rule out two-part coalition and make only options Kenya coalition (CDU/CDU-SPD-Green) or minority government.
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Reports that Left may be close to (narrowly) sweeping central Berlin districts.
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51% of first-time voters for Left + Greens + SPD! Not 54%. Sorry.
bsky.app/profile/did:...
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Notable: the two "people's parties" (Volksparteien), CDU/CSU and SPD, on 24% together among under-30s. Same as Left party alone.
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Left party’s lead extends beyond first-time voters. Ahead on 24% among all voters under 30 according to ZDF/Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll.
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Gregor Gysi, one of Left’s “silver haired” trio of viable constituency candidates (who helped make it plausible - as parties that win 3 constituencies override 5% hurdle), attributes party success to its new-found unity. Subtext: Wagenknecht’s breakaway made Left stronger.
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Quick recap:
- Latest projections suggest a five-fraction Bundestag. If so, a CDU/CSU-SPD coalition under a (rather humbled) Merz looks likely.
- FDP and BSW both close to 5%. If *either* of them hits that bar, a bipartite coalition becomes impossible and everything gets messier.
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BSW’s Katja Wolf beams in from Erfurt. She’s asked whether the party focused too much on the personality of Sahra Wagenknecht. Doesn’t exactly say no.
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German public TV just published this poll of first-time voters. A massive lead for socialist Left party on 27%.
Left + SPD + Greens on 54% among first-time-voters. Those voters were also slightly less likely to vote AfD than national average.
So much for the “far-right youth”.
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FDP’s Lindner, who as finance minister frustrated much of the traffic-light coalition’s modernising agenda and ultimately brought it down in November, seems shattered. He thanks party colleagues for their resilience.
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CSU’s Söder says that if FDP makes it into Bundestag, he would be for “Germany coalition” (CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP) rather than “Kenya coalition” (CDU/CSU + SPD + Greens).
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Two untranslatable German words it may be useful to know right now:
- Ausschliesseritis, "ruling-out-itis": what happens when parties exclude so many options that almost nothing seems possible
- Wahlkrimi, "election thriller": a dramatically close election result
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ARD polling rather confirms this suspicion. Pistorius much the more appealing chancellor especially among CDU/CSU voters.
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Popular SPD defence minister Boris Pistorius is on air. Some in party wonder - after worst result in federal German history - whether he would have been better chancellor candidate.
Like Scholz he congratulates CDU/CSU. But unlike Scholz takes aim at Merz tone during campaign.
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If result is anything like what projections are showing (8-9%), Left party has stunningly rebounded from the verge of oblivion.
Lots of reasons, but this speech is one of them. @heidireichinnek.de's viral takedown of Merz's AfD-adjacent migration stunt:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=l7bW...
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This graphic from ARD sums up the difference that FDP and BSW in Bundestag (so at 5.0% or more) would make.
Without FDP and BSW: CDU/CSU-SPD (grand coalition) possible
With FDP and BSW: only tripartite coalition or minority government possible
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Scholz speaks in shadow of Willy Brandt statue in SPD headquarters.
Gives a dignified concession speech congratulating Merz and the CDU/CSU on their win. Restates his opposition to cooperation with AfD.
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Latest results-based projection. FDP and BSW still below 5%.
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Merz (“We have won this election”) and Söder putting a brave face on it.
One gets the sense Söder is finding this easier than Merz.
FM calls for a capable government: “the world isn’t waiting for us… or prolonged coalition talks”. Cites need for European leadership.
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Worth stressing how mediocre sub-30% would be for Friedrich Merz:
- campaign was going for 35-40%
- AfD-adjacent Bundestag stunts were meant to bring back right-wing votes
- Merkel at her lowest (2017, post migrant crisis) got 33%
- Scholz government highly unpopular
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First results-based projection confirms the nail-biter: FDP and BSW on 4.9% and 4.7% respectively.
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Hard to overstate how much turns on whether FDP and/or BSW make it to 5.0%. Makes the difference between:
- CDU/CSU-SPD coalition versus tripartite coalition / minority govt
- favourable arithmetic for debt-brake reform and/or special funds versus messy-to-impossible arithmetic
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ZDF exit poll predicts an even tighter race around the 5% threshold, with both FDP and BSW on (exactly!) 5.0%.
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So a nail-biter of an evening awaits. *If* the exit poll is correct.
What is certain: turnout was 84%, the highest of any election since German reunification.
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If results match exit poll:
- CDU/CSU+SPD grand coalition possible
- CDU/CSU+ Greens not possible
- Disappointment for Merz AND AfD
- Triumph for Left party (upper end of expectations)
But:
- Both FDP and BSW close to 5% hurdle creates massive uncertainty
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Polls have closed in Germany. ARD exit poll % ⬇️ First results-based projection due shortly.
CDU/CSU 29.0
AfD 19.5
SPD 16.0
Greens 13.5
Left 8.5
FDP 4.9
BSW 4.7
Other 3.9
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Adam also makes the link, which I haven’t seen drawn explicitly during the campaign, between Germany’s crumbling civilian infrastructure and its deficient military readiness. The burden of the “Mittellage” ⬇️
adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-...
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(And thanks for the shout-out)
adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-...
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And on Spotify here:
open.spotify.com/show/0hBnFbZ...
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We will be back with a special results episode recorded in a live @ecfr.eu webinar on Monday morning (available on Searching for Deutschland feed soon after).
And then another regular episode of Searching for Deutschland later next week.
Subscribe here ⬇️
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/s...
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And in our final pre-election episode, published yesterday, we talked Germany's Trump shock and its Ukraine policy now and in the future with @gresselgustav.bsky.social and @gathmann.bsky.social
ecfr.eu/podcasts/epi...
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Ahead of the Munich Security Conference, @rikefranke.bsky.social and @rafaelloss.bsky.social joined us to discuss Germany's "Zeitenwende" three years on, the state of the armed forces, and the politics of German defence policy.
ecfr.eu/podcasts/epi...
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Then with the AfD increasingly setting the agenda of the campaign, we sat down with @mlewandowsky.bsky.social to discuss the rise of German euroscepticism on both the right and the left, and its influence on the mainstream.
ecfr.eu/podcasts/epi...
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The following week @jankaoertel.bsky.social joined us to discuss Germany's evolving relationship with China and how both Trump 2.0 and "China Shock 2.0" would and should influence the next German government's policies towards Beijing.
ecfr.eu/podcasts/epi...
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Right after inauguration day in Washington we were joined by @dschwarzer.bsky.social and @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social for a (rather prescient) discussion on what Trump might mean for Germany and its struggling economic model:
ecfr.eu/podcasts/epi...
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We started with a crossover episode with Mark Leonard's World in 30 Minutes on Germany's "missing" leadership in Europe and a discussion of Friedrich Merz's foreign-policy outlook.
ecfr.eu/podcasts/epi...