rf2048.bsky.social
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Perhaps it’s not acidic enough (pH 5.9) and it needs to be < 5.5
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Yes, the pH being 5.9 as outlined in the article is likely something that also has to reduce before it becomes a pandemic, right?
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There are certainly a lot of unknowns. I think the only certainty is that it won’t be identical to Covid. It’s likely that the severity and spread and subsequent immunity will be significantly different whether it’s lower or higher.
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Right, I wasn’t talking about the origins, but rather the severity by age group
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One good thing about influenza is its low R0 compared to Covid. So if this were to become a pandemic I think we could contain the spread far better. Probably also why Spanish flu only had major impacts for about a year.
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Makes sense, I realize you’re referring to a different type of wall than I was thinking about.
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Also note that Spanish flu (another avian flu) hit young/fit people the hardest, so we would expect to see more severe infections in farmworkers first.
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Also, we have much more population exposure to diseases like H1N1 now, which can be cross reactive with H5N1.
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We have not seen H2H transmission as was observed in Fall 1917. So no, we’re not there yet.
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Why would the wall collapse?
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Could you explain why this waning only occurs for respiratory diseases? Like MMR and other childhood vaccines provide lifelong protection.
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If I understand correctly, this doesn’t prevent a person of any age from taking the shot if they wish, but simply makes it free for certain groups like 75+?
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This is based on wastewater, not self-reporting.
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One thing I’m curious about is if H5 would mutate for years and rapidly reinfect like Covid or achieve herd immunity within a year like Spanish Flu (sans vaccine)
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Flu uses ACE2 receptors?
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That was the interesting thing about Covid - it was completely novel. Also, it attacked receptors all over the body while flu is mostly concentrated in the lungs. Which could reduce long term systemic effects.
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Oh yeah, that’s very possible. So far no evidence of H2H though!
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The CDC serological survey this summer showed about 7% of dairy workers had H5N1 antibodies, which would support that claim.
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That’s good. So the mortality is very low. And the spread hasn’t caused a significant jump in flu ED visits yet.
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If the mortality ends up following that pattern, the silver lining is that society will take this pandemic much more seriously even with Covid fatigue, and act appropriately.
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You mean the Russia wing led by Tulsi? Trump’s pick for National Security.
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I’m also curious if exposure to H1N1 in / after 2009 would give young adults some cross-immunity that they didn’t seem to have during the Spanish flu.
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Thoughts on www.colorado.edu/today/2023/1...?
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Thanks! Here’s the full one if you want it.
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Marc, what is your expectation around an H5N1 pandemic? Especially given www.cidrap.umn.edu/avian-influe..., does it seem likely to be much milder than Covid?