The fact they chose California as the flash point is also an indicator that they don't think these things through
LA has like 4M+ people. Sending every single ICE officer is ~20K, LAPD is 9K, LASD is 10K. Going in at 100:1 manpower – leaving zero bodies for literally anything else – is foolish
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LA has like 4M+ people. Sending every single ICE officer is ~20K, LAPD is 9K, LASD is 10K. Going in at 100:1 manpower – leaving zero bodies for literally anything else – is foolish
1/
Reposted from
T. Greg Doucette
Not enough personnel to do martial law
The secret of American law enforcement is that most people voluntarily follow most laws most of the time
If that changes for a significant %, things get overstretched very fast
The secret of American law enforcement is that most people voluntarily follow most laws most of the time
If that changes for a significant %, things get overstretched very fast
Comments
Well yeah, but the Government doesn't have the logistics to deploy 40K officers across 300K acres of land either
Smarter to target areas with lower population density and more Republicans, where the boot is better-tolerated
Unfortunately it will be tried anyways
Ignorance is a bliss.
And bliss seems to be running deep nowadays...
With Palantir style surveillance, how hard will it be to round up "ring leaders" and cut the head off nascent movements?
They don't have the intelligence, logistics, or capacity to do martial law
https://bsky.app/profile/sharonk.bsky.social/post/3lr27sfd6lc22
Odds of deaths are very high. But the more the government tries to crush resistance, the more resistance you get. Age old tale, learned by no one in power
https://bsky.app/profile/garbagearsonist.bsky.social/post/3lr27uqmq2c25
Discount Goebbels Steven Miller can't game theory.
it will be brutal. it will not be easy. but their defeat is extremely achievable
But general pacification? Not even close. FBI gets you another +13K. CIA officially unknown but sub-10K.
Then there's logistics. Where do that many cops eat / sleep / shit? Goes downhill fast
https://bsky.app/profile/okay7.bsky.social/post/3lr27wqdm6s2x
Attempting to "pacify" LA would probably not work out the way Stephen Miller thinks it would.
No, not because of the 3rd Amendment but because of renters sabotaging the housing.
I wouldn't put it past them at this point.
still probably not enough, but one more fucking reason.
I am not sure how the rest of the country would react to that.
they are not less than lethal. they are still lethal. they may be "less-lethal" in "some situations" but they are still very much lethal
and if they aren't 'in place', whose gonna make the 'less loyalists' toe the party line?
It is because neoliberal politics refuses to treat the left as equals.
A quote from Andor that has proven very relevant to this situation.
They're itching for a fight, but they've no idea how to actually get everything done and organized.
You know who's great at organizing? Protesters.
They're just going to suck at it, whatever that looks like in the context of 2025.
“His lodestar is rewarding friends and punishing foes.”
Gavin Newsom is a foe and nothing else fundamentally matters because Trump’s staff is mostly incompetent.
https://www.thebulwark.com/p/how-democrats-can-capitalize-on-musk-trump-catfight-hissy-fit-battle
If the policy is to follow the Petreus model in the US, then who will be used to carry out the ethnic cleansing of non-Whites?
I only remember because we found out that the military and cops use the word "cover" in very different, "shoot the bad guys if needed" vs. "spray the entire area with bullets", ways.
(I remember a LOT of grown-ups talking about about mismanagement.)
But George HW Bush was aeons wiser than Trump
(I was in elementary school and couldn't go anywhere for a whole week.)
And that’s before you get to any specific skirmish—it’s not like everyone’s all going to be in the same place at the same time. Forces will be spread out.
If what we’re seeing now is the extent of their battle plan, as it sure seems to be, they are going to have a long and miserable four years ahead of them
I’m dredging this out of memory, so I might be off, but still…
Also, I’m not condoning bombing/terror attacks, just pointing out that a small force can tie up a much larger one.
So now even the country folks will protest....
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/28/us/missouri-immigrant-trump.html?smid=nytcore-android-share
Their desperation and ultimate failure to "occupy" Los Angeles will expose their weakness to everyone.
Escalating violence plays right into their hands.
We are headed for some very dark days.
They want martial law. They want an “emergency” that they can leverage to deepen fascist oppression.
But if the crowd gets large they'll be there for "crowd control", so in essence, it's help
"Remember that the frontier of the Rebellion is everywhere. And even the smallest act of insurrection pushes our lines forward."
"Remember this: Try."
ICE is the tip o’the spear.
The objective is a full-scale military occupation.
We’re witnessing an operational white ethno-terror state supported by the USSC, 119th Congress and US military.
The writing has been on the wall for many years.
READ IT.
Page 555
Using military against civilians
Trump purposely escalating
Sending unrequested National Guard troops into LA
Hegseth threatening to send Marines from Camp Pendleton
Military parade in DC June 14
It's a plan disguised as a parade
They ordered him to return Abrego Garcia to the US April 10th - he ignored them
He's ignored lower courts
They picked the biggest liberal city with the highest latino population to make a point. If they can make LA bend the knee the rest of the country would be easier.
They just underestimated the resistance level, but rest assured, the new baseline has already been set.
Which has been a desired end goal of Trump's lackeys since the campaign last year.
They want a civil war.
They don't want to ruin good soldiers with policing. Or riot control.
This is their flashpoint they need to suspend the Constitution and raise their Republican Fourth Reich.
DON'T FALL FOR IT! THIS IS HIS PLAN!!!!!!
and in 2020, the ones who tried it just got their asses kicked until they ran back home
It's in LA county, population 9.6 million.
Basically a gang.
Can't find the latest number, but it's funny when there's a investigation and it's reported as if it a new thing.
It accelerated them, they got bigger and spread wider, and became a larger cultural force.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maidan_casualties
very shrewd
I'm just saying even if they sent everybody, it still won't work
Just seems very poorly thought out.
May their evil, arrogance and incompetence be their downfall
Chaos & death. (NOT hyperbole, NOT metaphoric)
In unvanquishable number-
Shake your chains to earth like
dew
Which in sleep had fallen on you
Ye are many-they are few.“
Capital is the ultimate sovereign of both sides and, eventually, will show up to mediate the conflict and calls the war off.
Wrong.
Look up 'Spanish civil war'
OPEN A BOOK
https://bsky.app/profile/apnews.com/post/3lrcalmqnxm2c
You're pissing up the wrong tree
This is a propaganda trick to fog the real reason: western powers and the liberal-conservative estabilishment betrayed the republicans and apeased with the fascists.
A lot of liberals in Europe ended up helping the fascists. Like they did in Italy and Germany.
Anyway, Newsom and Trump have the same objective: find ways to cool the protests down. Newsom thinks repression will throw gas in the fire, Trump is a shoot them now guy. This tactical dispute is no reason to start a cívil war.
If they chose California has the tipping point, then they can blame liberals. It doesn't matter if they are liberals are not, being able to point to California is enough for MAGA to buy into it.
Even worse, they're spread inconsistently across a large area so you can't concentrate force
Remember how it went for us in Iraq? With 1/3 of Iraq on our side?
Iraq is like... the size of Texas
LA
San Diego
San Bernardino/Riverside
~ 20 million
Turning our own military & local police against their own people who pay them is uhhhh.....how would we say...UN-AMERICAN????
They look like actors in bad costumes
We need to cont verify they're really police officers. Areas around the country report they are NOT
https://bsky.app/profile/heatherthomasaf.bsky.social/post/3lr2fwbl63c2v
Then the question is: will the security apparatus & military stay loyal and obedient, or not?
They are all patriots, they would fight in a JUST war, not a MAGA war.
I could not support the fascism that our government is performing.
I keep saying to myself, "I am so lucky."
Fox News has poisoned so many minds, though. You see it playing on bases.
💙💙💙
PD to citizen ratio is wildly in favor of citizens, unlike NYC.
Ignoring civil rights and civilian oversight is kind of their thing.
https://bsky.app/profile/rgoodlaw.bsky.social/post/3lr2srgmuds2v
https://bsky.app/profile/mrsbettybowers.bsky.social/post/3lr2mui4yzc2u
But this is Miller's hometown. Pee Wew German is lashing out.
Today they don't have that anymore. The LAPD is standing down from cooperating with ICE.
https://bsky.app/profile/adjectivalnoun.bsky.social/post/3lr263333d22l
I mean, if today were Tuesday, then MAYBE I could understand...
That tends not to work... usually.
Also, they are deeply convinced that they're right and that everyone who matters agrees with them.
Really truly believe thats what this is leading to.
The hard calculus of occupation is that it takes vastly more boots on the ground than that to effectively suppress a population. Look at the response to Kent State.
Marcos in Philippines
Yun Suk Yeol in South Korea.
Ceausescu reign 14 yrs
Marcos reign 21 yrs
Yeol reign 3 yrs
Sure they want to bully LA like they want to bully Harvard. What happens if it doesn't work?
honestly it's a huge crap shoot who wins if this civil war goes hot, imo
we've never beat an insurgency even without the dual loyalty doing fascism at home is going to create
Live rounds would be chaos. On top of that, how many National Guard soldiers are going to go along with it?
But yeah, I do think ICE is dumb enough to shoot unarmed civilians and think that'll end well for them.
National Guard members do not.
Nevertheless, do not forget Ohio State in 1968.
LA county 11 million.
This is blindingly stupid.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/la-county-sheriffs-department-not-233329156.html
Wow, who could possibly have seen that coming?
Who do you think is dispersing and tear-gassing the protestors? Like, do a google-search and miss me with this semantic hand-wringing.
LA doesn’t riot as easily as say, Baltimore here in the northeast, but when Angelenos do riot it’s for keeps and it will achieve something.
A riot is coming. I can feel it. It’s building and soon enough, unless ICE and the gop get real smart, real soon, capitulate, and apologize it’s gonna be Rodney King Riots 2.0
Fight on California siblings and comrades! Maybe the revolution is finally beginning. Would be fitting for it to begin in my home state…
Protestors: est 50,000 - 100,000
Troops: est 150,000 - 350,000
As Sam Houston ("Founding Father of Texas") said,
People are pissed and a lot of them are looking for a fight.
Riots are not as good at moving public opinion as you think. And this is calculated to cause them to riot so Trump can point to "lawless left wing cities".
https://youtu.be/od-gttJoa0o?si=QmxPfG_Prs7i1Qzi
And roll credits. 😉
Except Newsom is the biggest wuss....
I still think he's a wuss.
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20190513-it-only-takes-35-of-people-to-change-the-world
The end game is martial law; watch.
If they win this, they win.
Makes for a high stakes bet.
Would be really interesting to see a scenario spectrum on this war gamed.
So little shooting....so far.
Great to see the Militia is so well-regulated.
Rebel is in my blood.
Thanks for the boost. 🥹
https://generalstrikeus.com/
(But I'm glad they tried it in LA)
We fight Back.
But
Honest question
Where in Texas do you think there'd be pushback from the community, especially on the scale of LA?
Are there sanctuary cities in Texas?
From what I've heard, most of Texas is pretty pro-ICE, but maybe I'm just biased.
Texas has been gerrymandered to shit though.
It looks like Abbot explicitly banned sanctuary cities, so I am just wondering what is the goal here
Because if it's to prove something about Cali being weak
They're doing a really shitty job of it
They were clearly not there rounding up migrants today
Banging on about sending in National Guard? Literally for what
Whatever they're doing here doesn't make any sense.
I think we're confounding what the perceived goal is