that trump has real electoral juice does not make him some kind of master strategist. he was actively bad at being president the last time around and shows every indication of being even worse at it now
Comments
Log in with your Bluesky account to leave a comment
Trump ran a terrible campaign. Harris ran a great one.
But 2024 is the year of every single governing party losing.
There's a lot of finger pointing, and some of it is well earned, but it could be that people were mad, and voted whoever was in, out.
the way people are talking him up as some strategic mastermind almost makes you forget he was out there praising cocks, fellating ghosts, and campaigning in the great state of azurasia a couple months ago
It's easier to tell ourselves he's playing 4D chess than to admit the truth. That we have a culture and a political system that rewards proud malice, incompetence, and anti-intellectualism as long as the people engaging in those things are privileged.
and here's the thing: I have no doubt that desantis and rubio and bondi will be slavishly loyal to trump. but they are also *ambitious* and have an interest in their own careers as well as that of the republican party. this introduces a tension into the administration (that can be exploited)
A related point is that Rubio and DeSantis (and presumably Bondi) have really ambitious underlings who aren't bound by any ethical code and who will be happy to work behind the scenes to undermine other Republicans they see as standing in their way. The leaks will have leaks.
I think an invocation of the 25th Amendment is inevitable and that is a big part of why all the cabinet picks are chosen for loyalty. Dementia doesn't get better.
Besides Vance having zero allies except for DJT Jr and Thiel, I think the cabinet will try to wait it out which makes a Death of Stalin scenario more likely
Also, hey: High-profile folks like DeSantis, Rubio who sign on with Trump are tying their entire future to him. They'll likely ruin themselves for future offie.
The best they'll get out of it is a tell-all book and maybe a corporate board spot.
The Epstein interviews shows Trump is picking people he can pit against each other because he believes doing business is pressuring people into performing for him. His picks are ambitious failsons. They will eat each other and clog our democracy as everyday people suffer.
An economist on NPR had an amazing point: Trump will soon break with Musk once he feels Musk is more popular than he is. Surrounding himself with such ambitious people is surely going to backfire on him.
I think throwing spanners into the MAGA machine is the focus of The Lincoln Project videos--to just cause as much infighting and backstabbing as possible.
However, like last time Trump will give up replacing them as they lose their value. So like last time he'll just put in a bunch of "acting" officials who want the gravy train to keep rolling.
This is a huge point. DeSantis can’t destroy DoD because it kills his presidential aspirations. Hegseth would be topping out at DoD. There will always be a job for him at Fox, no matter how awful he makes DoD
Exactly - DeSantis will be extremely anti trans and do whatever trump wants on those sorts of issues. But I'm much less worried about desantis doing a coup than I would be about Hegseth or someone without an independent power base
Another tension: the strategy is to have the Cabinet pick be the “messenger” and his subordinate be the “manager” (chosen to implement the 2025 agenda). Put any credible person into the top spot and there’s an instant turf war.
the contradiction of trump is that he is a party leader who is indifferent to the fate of his party and its interests. this is an asset in a general election and a huge disadvantage in governing
Will all the GOP give him two years of grace to do whatever he wants, tapering off if Democrats do well in 2026?
Will those eager beavers Trump wanted in big offices start laying down their claim for 2028 after midterms?
Or, do a Sarah Palin/ Nikki Hailey and only serve a half term not a full four?
A lot of people justified their complicity in the last admin by saying it would’ve been worse if they weren’t there to curb his worst impulses. But, remains to be seen how being surrounded mostly by incompetent sycophants instead plays out. Could go either way.
His promising everything to everyone includes the party, the Project 25 jabronis, Musk and the techbros, etc. Who's coordinating all of this? It sure as heck won't be Trump.
This whole administration is looking to be the Three Stooges in You Nazty Spy! on meth.
Yup. And as for the rest of them: while each R congressperson wants to get elected *individually*, I'm not sure they actually want to be the majority and go about the business of the goverment.
Mark my words – he will not be involved at all in campaigning for his GOP successor. He will spend all his time golfing if he’s still alive and able to stand upright. It will be very funny to see Vance embarrass himself again, if he winds up being the chosen one.
Also: political power is unitary. You take a hit with every defeat. Not the same as just avoiding the nonsense and picking Ron in the first place. Having even this pliant senate moonwalk/reject these nominees is damaging.
I’ve frequently thought that we would be in a lot worse shape if Trump was even a slightly better person. Like, yeah, things are absolutely fucked - but him being one of the laziest, most incurious, and hedonistic individuals on Earth puts real limits on what he’s capable of doing himself.
My partner was wishing that he would choke on a chicken bone, and I said that Vance might be worse because Trump is legitimately dumb, chaotic, and ineffective. I'm grateful for that, at least.
What surprises me is that the more competent sycophants he has in his orbit can’t actually get shit done. Is he actually picking all these people, or is he just going with who his advisors suggest?
His criteria is entirely centered around "what can this person do for me, personally," which includes money/grift, ability to further his vengeance agenda, and most of all, shamelessly kiss his ass.
He also gets sloppier as he gets mad and frustrated. It was pretty obvious last time that he hated the *job* of President. He loved the fawning, and the title (and the corrupt access to money flows). But he hates making day to day decisions. Staffing is tedious, even for competent people!
trump is a lame duck
Everyone should remember that Stop giving him their power
esp Senate gop
Do not bend the knee to a lame duck president
Senate holds the power to reject horrible nominations
Congress holds power of the purse
"doge" is NOTHING has no money or power unless Congress gives legitimacy
Because our actions affect how likely that is to happen. Expect real elections, and be loud about it, and even most of the magats can't really argue against.
Me too! Would love to know why we are collectively skipping the “are we still going to be a democracy or not” step… seems like we are yet again taking them not seriously or literally or whatever the meme is.
I think a lot of us are quite aware of the potential damage to democracy but there are a million steps from 2024 to "no more meaningful elections," so jumping straight to that is essentially pure speculation and risks undermining our will to resist. Why fight for democracy if we're already doomed?
The thing is that local and state elections (incl state reps to Congress) will still happen. It would take an absurd amount of political willpower for a leader of the federal government to move that government against all 50 states to stop each individual election, and Trump doesn't have the juice.
Adding some thoughts:
Trump exists in chaos and thrives on creating chaos. There's a possibility of chaos to disrupt some elections (more bomb threats? Election deniers winning secretary of state races?), but something organized from the top will be difficult to pull off.
But that also means 2026 (and 2025!) will be an important election for laying foundations of local/state political power. Dems (by which I mean anyone left of the GOP) in more city councils, Dems in more county boards of commissioners, Dems in more statehouses.
i don’t think that tension really exist. pense’s career is over, as is haley’s. this is all testing the senate. they’ve signaled their general compliance. send us kooks that don’t embarrass us, and we’ll go along. he’s finding out who his “enemies” are. at some point, he will start bullying them
It is shocking how loyal some of these people are given Trump’s complete disregard for anyone. They can also see people like Giuliani who aligned with Trump lose everything and it has no impact.
I’m also thinking if Trump kicks this term (not a remote possibility), Vance is not going to have that juice with the voters and the wolves will be circling
100%. Trump is charismatic enough to win an election against a woman in America, but that doesn’t mean he’s any damn good at being President. In fact he sucks at it. The only way he COULD get much done is as an authoritarian. He makes a lot of noise, but accomplishes little. His judges though
Trump's biggest electoral asset is the ability to sound like whatever the last person who talked to him sounds like and to convince everyone he agrees with them. This is somewhere between "useless" and "harmful" in power.
He wanted to be president to avoid jail, prove he’s not a loser, get adulation. Diet Coke on demand with a magical button on his desk in the Oval Office. He could care less about the rest of it as long as his ‘ratings’ are good. The ppl using him are worrisome but maybe will shank each other.
Part of being an autocrat is finding the right balance between strivers, schemers and broken men. The strivers will get things done, the schemers will help to keep them in line, but if you don't have some loyal goobers with nothing in life but their dedication to you, the knives can come out quick.
Trump's problem is that his most loyal followers are perhaps a little *too* broken. You want guys who know that they're finished if you go down, not guys who are fourteen drinks into lunch and are running point on your legal strategy.
I used to think that the ambition of Republican politicians would put them at odds with Trump when they believed that opposition would allow them to score political points. But it seems instead that they have decided their interests are best served by demonstrating fealty to the President-elect.
Not as sure about bondi but both Rubio and desantis will have political careers beyond trump. Neither gaetz nor hegseth would get even a moderately prominent job if not for trump… the difference between these groups is significant
And not just them. There’ll be any number of cross-purposes and conflicting actions, intentional or idiotic. Given that TFG is probably incapable of riding herd, it’ll be the advisors closest to him that will vie for attention, duke it out and be responsible for constant lurches
Demented lunatic is a lame duck. It's in no one's interest around him to keep him propped up past a point, the midterms are going to be a bloodbath for them, and the jockeying for position will expose vulnerabilities.
It's gonna be Shakespearian, but tragically stupid.
With Em getting so much attention, while also telling us what his plans are for the government and the country, and one of them having more money than the other, and one of them the button, etc. one speculate on the inevitability of a High Noon. Sooner. Not later.
Unfortunately, he’ll be “better”. He’s not even in office yet, no actual power, but he’s turned the news cycle on its head so they’re talking about Trump as if Biden doesn’t exist. He’s losing some first choices, but you know he has a list, and the rest are just as bad, sans incriminating evidence.
Trumpalooza 1 was marked by his total ignorance of how government works. He stumbled into some truly bad results.
Trumpalooza 2: The Rekoning will be noted for his increasingly blatant funneling of money into his pockets and his obsessive desire to pay back every single person who has wronged him.
I’m hoping that what they do manage to do is deeply unpopular, but the more nominees examined the more I think it’s just the same old incompetence. They don’t govern—they just say no.
This and your next post in this thread is what I have been *trying* to remind people (esp fed attys). He was really bad at everything before. He's not suddenly Mr. Competent now. And yes, people in the administration will have different incentives and that provides strategic openings.
I have a hard time seeing Trump go with any plan where he is seen to lose or capitulate. That doesn't seem like something that he would do. This is the hurricane map marker guy.
The story begins and ends with the fact that he was able to capture a hollowed out Republican party. In our system, once you manage to take over of one of our TWO political parties, it's just a matter of waiting to take power. It's not genius, it's just inevitable.
If Hillary had won in 2016 is there any doubt (all thing being equal) that Trump could have maintained control of the Republican Party, comprehensively rinsed the same team of dorks he beat in the 2016 primary, and then beaten her in a rematch in the back of COVID?
I worry that there’s a somewhat better-organized machine behind him this time, but dude’s still a massive flake with the attention span of a caffeinated hummingbird.
Trump is impulsive. He sees it as being decisive and therefore a positive but ultimately it results in these kinds of decisions. And since he's surrounded by "Yes" men, no one can tell him he's made a bad decision.
I think 25th Amendment is a more likely outcome. Impeachment is a non-starter before the midterms, and by that time I think Trump will be really ga-ga.
We'll see. I think they keep trotting him out like Reagan or the mormons did with Ezra Taft Benson long after it becomes obvious he's gone but maybe JD sees his chance and goes for it.
The fact that anyone was able to put enough pressure on him to make him drop these bad picks feels like a somewhat positive sign. If he were able to shrug off all criticism and install bad people anyway that would be worse.
Comments
But 2024 is the year of every single governing party losing.
There's a lot of finger pointing, and some of it is well earned, but it could be that people were mad, and voted whoever was in, out.
Trump will be out in four years, tops. Leaving a horrible mess. Or he could die tomorrow.
Those senators & reps have DECADES of career ahead of them. They think long term, and don't want things to fall apart.
The best they'll get out of it is a tell-all book and maybe a corporate board spot.
We could have had Kamala.
However, like last time Trump will give up replacing them as they lose their value. So like last time he'll just put in a bunch of "acting" officials who want the gravy train to keep rolling.
there will not be a smooth transition.
Will those eager beavers Trump wanted in big offices start laying down their claim for 2028 after midterms?
Or, do a Sarah Palin/ Nikki Hailey and only serve a half term not a full four?
This whole administration is looking to be the Three Stooges in You Nazty Spy! on meth.
After that, fealty on steroids.
After that, complete obedience.
Advisors may have ideas but my way or the highway is the rule of the day. I’d hate to be on that transition team.
Everyone should remember that Stop giving him their power
esp Senate gop
Do not bend the knee to a lame duck president
Senate holds the power to reject horrible nominations
Congress holds power of the purse
"doge" is NOTHING has no money or power unless Congress gives legitimacy
Trump exists in chaos and thrives on creating chaos. There's a possibility of chaos to disrupt some elections (more bomb threats? Election deniers winning secretary of state races?), but something organized from the top will be difficult to pull off.
So... 🍿🤷♂️
Only Kash Patel manifestly has that ability. For him 2 + 2 always = 5, = 17, = French poodles,
= -7; whatever it needs to in any instant.
https://youtu.be/M-YYGdV6SiM
Demented lunatic is a lame duck. It's in no one's interest around him to keep him propped up past a point, the midterms are going to be a bloodbath for them, and the jockeying for position will expose vulnerabilities.
It's gonna be Shakespearian, but tragically stupid.
It will be a hard four years . 😔
Trumpalooza 2: The Rekoning will be noted for his increasingly blatant funneling of money into his pockets and his obsessive desire to pay back every single person who has wronged him.