I’ve been disappointed by the quality of writing on most Substack essays. They seem to need editors. But if Krugman is on it now, I’ll have to reconsider.
This “waiting for Godot” economics makes me think of the “drôle de guerre” in France 39-45. My instinct is that nazis will want to start a war cover their incompetence. That’s my bet.
So, we're going to reindustrialize America, bring the jobs home. Meanwhile, our economy is already near full employment, and we're going to be deporting millions of workers - Who's going to do all this new work?
If Trump really does do crazy stuff (introducing tariffs, deporting undocumented labourers and picking fights with neighbours) presumably we can expect a recession about 1-2 years from now?
Less. The problem is there just aren’t too many stable & safe economies right now for investors to move their money into. If the US becomes wildly volatile, everyone will be impacted & the reaction could be quick & disproportionate.
Inflation will not turn Trump voters against him. They will simply blame someone else. However, if Trump reneges on his culture war promises, there will be hell to pay.
The new Sooners are everyone buying imports before the prices go up due to tariffs, thereby creating demand, supply chain issues and inflation. It’s too late to stop now.
Great article. You're writing more smoothly than you did at the Times. And yes I'm a nerd I recognized the picture as the Oklahoma Land rush. Those guys in the front? They're the reason it has the nickname "The Sooner State."
My grandmother & her family were in that Land Run. The Sooners who went in before the day before the opening and hid until the run began. Her family encountered them twice before staking their claim on the 3rd plot they selected. My great grandmother supposedly went after a Sooner with an axe.
Yes of course you're right it was the day before but for dramatic effect I figured I would point out those guys in the lead.
The soonest Oklahomans, the Five Civilized Tribes, were stripped of much of their land by the Dawes Act of 1887. Two years later the Unassigned Lands were opened.
The difference between an aristocrat and an oligarch is the aristocrat bears responsibility for the working class while the oligarch is a parasite and doesn't give a crap. Trump pretends to be an aristocrat but he's an oligarch.
Really brilliant analysis. My guess is Trump will just keep making executive orders for anything he wants, that is simpler than working with congress, and then he will say sue me, and then pressure courts to go his way.
Naked emperor and all that. Do they still teach that at schools or has that right made that into some virtuous message (ie worshiping an imbecile is great).
It looks like the Brazil of Bolsonaro and Paulo Guedes, but still without Paulo Guedes. Trump is a braggart who sells the product without even knowing how to do it. I hope the chief economist can put a stop to this crazy person!
What do you think of Bessent? Stephanie Ruhl seems to think he must be intelligent bc he’s rich. My sense is he owes his wealth to luck more than anything else and is not qualified to be treasury secretary.
He has a plan: cut rich people's taxes and have his subordinates just have to find a way to pass it. It's not a good plan, but then Americans aren't really concerned with that.
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Every. Single. One.
Then the Democrats will have to clean it up...again and get no credit for it...again.
Wash. Rinse. Repeat.
Get the remote from Grandpa, he’s changing the kids’ shows to “Skinamax” again.
Make McKinley great again!
The soonest Oklahomans, the Five Civilized Tribes, were stripped of much of their land by the Dawes Act of 1887. Two years later the Unassigned Lands were opened.
"Trump's trade war on China was a failure in every possible way" https://www.axios.com/2021/02/01/trump-trade-war-china-failure
"China bought none of the extra $200 billion of US exports in Trump's trade deal" https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/2022/china-bought-none-extra-200-billion-us-exports-trumps-trade-deal
(be comforted, pain is for the poor)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JhkZMxgPxXU