Exercises like this need to be taken with a bucket of salt, but underline how Reform threat is still orders of magnitude more serious for Con than Lab This projection gives 329 seats to Labour friendly parties (Lab, LD, SNP, Grn, PC). Tories reduced to 40 seats & 5th place - ThreadSky

robfordmancs.bsky.social • 22 days ago

Exercises like this need to be taken with a bucket of salt, but underline how Reform threat is still orders of magnitude more serious for Con than Lab

This projection gives 329 seats to Labour friendly parties (Lab, LD, SNP, Grn, PC).

Tories reduced to 40 seats & 5th place

Reposted from Election Maps UK

Just one poll, and those Reform/Conservative numbers are somewhat outliers as things stand, but this is what it could look like in an election:

RFM: 253 (+248) - 73 Short
LAB: 196 (-215)
LDM: 77 (+5)
SNP: 45 (+36)
CON: 40 (-81)
GRN: 7 (+3)
PLC: 4 (=)
Others: 9 (+4)

Comments

robfordmancs.bsky.social•22 days ago

In this scenario, Labour lose their majority, but likely carry on governing. The Tories are wiped out, perhaps permanently.

robfordmancs.bsky.social•22 days ago

However, even quite modest changes in the national numbers (or in the local patterns) could produce a drastically different outcomes. We are now in the zone of maximum chaos under First Past the Post

robfordmancs.bsky.social•22 days ago

I realise the SNP are no fans of Labour in general, but in a scenario where they are being asked "which would you prefer, Labour or Farage?" it really isn't hard to predict which way they would jump, IMHO (they wouldn't have to govern with Labour, just prop it up & keep Farage out)

lines.snail.skin•22 days ago

It feels like this is the kind of situation where we end up with voting reform that Labour can't say no to.

aremay.bsky.social•22 days ago

I would be fascinated to watch that play out in real time. Mortified, but fascinated. (I think any Labour-lead government in a Commons like that is going to produce a surge in Reform polling that won't ebb).

lines.snail.skin•22 days ago

I agree I think.

lewisbaston.bsky.social•22 days ago

Government would have trouble legislating for England-only matters given the SNP policy of abstaining on such votes. The politics of this could get pretty ugly whichever direction it goes in.

robfordmancs.bsky.social•22 days ago

I suspect an outcome like this would lead to electoral reform and a second election under a new system quite quickly (all the other smaller parties would want it, and it would dilute SNP influence as if they're on 40 plus seats the only way is down for them under PR)

aeonmach.bsky.social•22 days ago

So the issue is that the SNP might, cynically, resist?

So then you need others, most obviously Reform - who would up-until-this-point have been pro PR…
…but might now, also cynically, think that they are so close to the domination once enjoyed by the Tories??? 🤔
🤷‍♂️

johndoe123123.bsky.social•22 days ago

It's needed badly

wm899.bsky.social•22 days ago

The SNP backed electoral reform even when they had 50 seats.

petersketch.bsky.social•22 days ago

The choice for the longer-established parties would be either immediate electoral reform (which is a Reform policy so harder for them to object to) or a subsequent FPTP election with Reform playing the martyrs about having "won" the previous election but having been shut out by a conspiracy.

mr-creosote.bsky.social•21 days ago

I think people overestimate how much PR would screw the SNP in westminster. 4.7% of votes doesn't mean 4.7% of seats. That tiny percentage of votes can still mean winning nearly all 57 Scottish seats. Especially when people no longer feel they have to vote labour to keep the tories out.

crossgreenman.bsky.social•22 days ago

Sorry mate. It’s not Scotland’s job to prop up labour in England. That’s been tried for 50 years and it benefitted no one.. Certainly not Scots. Anyway, Labour detest the SNP to the point they do deals with Tories in Scotland. England needs to sort itself out if the right are to be resisted

teakei.bsky.social•22 days ago

Scotland voting Labour hasn't benefitted Scots? So you think devolution was a bad thing, then?

crossgreenman.bsky.social•22 days ago

People voted for devolution. Not for labour. Don’t get me wrong… I don’t think independence would be a walk in the park by any means. Not least because I believe the Brits would make it as difficult as possible, but Scot’s politics suffers from the same dearth of leaders as anywhere else these days.

gregorjclark.bsky.social•22 days ago

This is a really interesting scenario to ponder. DUP held disproportionate power over Theresa May. If SNP were in this situation, they would rightly demand a high price for their support. Indyref2 would be the bare minimum.

robfordmancs.bsky.social•22 days ago

I suspect it would lead to a new election under PR fast - firstly because that's what all the other smaller parties would want, secondly because it would dilute SNP influence (if they're on 40 seats, then the only way is down for them under PR)

mr-creosote.bsky.social•21 days ago

the SNP would be obliged to demand the right to hold a referendum as part of any agreement to prop up a minority labour government, and they'd be absolutely right to demand it.

mr-creosote.bsky.social•21 days ago

It shouldn't come down to whether you agree with independence. It's that the union can't be voluntary if you can't choose to leave it. if labour can't agree to that, it'll be on their heads and their heads only if we end up governed by a minority far right reform-tory coalition.

glostermeteor.bsky.social•22 days ago

Not sure that theory holds tbh. SNP rise and fall WITH the Right. Having a Farage/Tory enemy in charge in Westminster is a very helpful bogeyman for SNP.

philipstokes.bsky.social•22 days ago

oh joy

crossgreenman.bsky.social•22 days ago

And Scotland continues to be ruled from afar by another English political party that has no mandate to even step foot in the country. And we get the most expensive electricity in Europe in order to continue subsidising voters in England for our troubles. Sick of this shit system

pjadams1994.bsky.social•22 days ago

I do wonder how viable a rainbow coalition would be, at least based on where the parties stand atm but you never know. Grand coalition to keep out Reform?

crossgreenman.bsky.social•22 days ago

How about confronting the issues driving people to Reform? How about giving people something positive to vote for other than “anyone but that other lot”. This sounds like a race to the bottom to me. I’m for 3 independent, cooperative nations and a united Ireland. Oh, and no more Etonian influence.

robfordmancs.bsky.social•22 days ago

Well, for one thing, independence isn't a winning electoral proposition in Scotland or Wales, while reunification is not a winning electoral proposition in either part of Ireland. And in none of these places is constitutional change the issue driving Reform voting.

crossgreenman.bsky.social•22 days ago

That’s all true. But the numbers in favour of independence in all three countries is growing amongst the young, and most opposed by the old. Scotland needs only a small nudge to get a majority. I thought Boris would have done it. If PM Farage isn’t enough then I’ll take to drink.

mr-creosote.bsky.social•22 days ago

Yep, what's just happened in America should be a wakeup call that it's not enough to just say you have to vote for us to keep the other guys out. labour only scraped through the last election due to the collapse of the tory vote. it's not going to get them reelected.

mr-creosote.bsky.social•22 days ago

It would come down to how significant the SNP are to forming one. I suspect labour would sooner let reform win than agree to give Scotland the right to choose to leave the union, which would be a condition of the SNP agreeing to it. Then they'd spend the next 40 years scapegoating the SNP for it.

o-loughl.in•22 days ago

What are reform policies? Much of this I suspect is “I hate Tory, Labour etc.”, but the risk is getting Reform on the same basis Labour won. Anyone but the incumbent.

hughrbrechin.bsky.social•22 days ago

I hope nobody tells the SNP you've called them a Labour friendly party

mermaidspursej.bsky.social•22 days ago

I've always thought of the SNP as very similar to the Tories, tbf.

The toxic combination of business, patriotism and nostalgia.

gmuir.bsky.social•22 days ago

Your understanding of the SNP is inaccurate.
They are more social democratic than business oriented.
Changes to the tax and benefit system by the SNP make them more progressive than the Labour party, e.g. changes to banding in the tax system and anti poverty measures - the Scottish Child payment,

mermaidspursej.bsky.social•22 days ago

If you say so.

gmuir.bsky.social•22 days ago

I've given an explanation why!
In Scotland in comparison to England, the poorer pay less tax, the wealthier pay more. More progressive.
Danny Dorling has written of the importance of the Scottish Child Payment in combating poverty in Scotland. Progressive.
Both rejected by Labour.

mermaidspursej.bsky.social•22 days ago

When parties are plotted on the libertarian/authoritarian left/right axes, the SNP occupies a sweet spot towards the centre on the libertarian left. It is in its own there with no other European party anywhere near it. That's the luxury of not being in government.

billym007.bsky.social•22 days ago

The answer a kid would use when not believing an answer given.

mermaidspursej.bsky.social•22 days ago

I don't think that nationalism is compatible with social democratic principles. Should Scotland become independent the SNP will face an existential problem; should they continue as social democrats whilst carrying the can for fiscal decisions or continue to push aggressive nationalism, which their

haunsupforindy.bsky.social•21 days ago

And from what source does your information come?

oooft.bsky.social•22 days ago

we're still in the land of sanity, as per 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿

mikerobson.bsky.social•22 days ago

Only a bucket?

davidherdson.bsky.social•22 days ago

Not convinced that the SNP can be counted as Lab-friendly.

They'd support Starmer remaining in No 10 because of the alternative but would be completely unreliable on any other vote, other than in return for constant demands for concessions. Utter nightmare situation to govern in.

robfordmancs.bsky.social•22 days ago

Oh, certainly. And one reason I expect a scenario like this would lead to electoral reform is that PR would dilute the influence of the SNP (who would lose ground in a proportional system) while increasing the influence of more biddable parties on the liberal/left flank (LDs and Greens)

davidherdson.bsky.social•22 days ago

They'd lose ground but whether they'd lose influence would depend on whether they're still the swing vote?

Lab+LD+Grn floating south of 50% at the moment. That might not matter if Others mostly get excluded but it's still tight (and Lab would presumably not want to have to rely on both LD and Grn).

davidherdson.bsky.social•22 days ago

Ironically, the Tories might be more reliable for Labour given that they'd be even more scared of a general election and might settle their support (vote-by-vote) for a lower price. A good Labour chief whip would certainly be able to play them off against the SNP.

erch1e.bsky.social•22 days ago

SNP, Labour friendly? Why might anyone think that? Going by their routine in Scotland Labour pretty much automatically oppose anything put forward by the SNP. Unless they change their approach on a Scottish referendum.

rossignol.bsky.social•22 days ago

I know Labour will never go for electoral reform, but it feels like these violent swings are a consequence of FPTP as much as anything else. (My pet theory has long been that if we had more representative voting we'd have ridden out a lot of bumps in the past decade.)

robfordmancs.bsky.social•22 days ago

Yes, definitely. And an outcome like this might be what it takes to bring about the end of FPTP (all the smaller parties would likely demand electoral reform as the price of propping up Labour in government, and Farage favours it too so the main opposition wouldn't be a roadblock)

tadaaa.bsky.social•22 days ago

a few years ago the prevailing consensus was that FPTP assured government / electoral stability

that seems a long time ago

(along with "DOGE has no real powers")

robfordmancs.bsky.social•22 days ago

That hasn't been the prevailing consensus among British elections academics for a long time now.

tadaaa.bsky.social•22 days ago

Interesting, & I suspect this has filtered thru to voters that FPTP = stable government is no longer a thing

rossignol.bsky.social•22 days ago

Well that's one upside, I suppose.

twoev.bsky.social•22 days ago

I’d find a switch to PR at this time more alarming than an unstable coalition. It changes the perception of what votes mean from holding power to account into a permanent concrete expression of the will of the people. We saw that during the Boris years and now in the US and it is ugly

robfordmancs.bsky.social•22 days ago

I don't understand your analogies - neither involved electoral reform and both were the products of FPP elections.

twoev.bsky.social•22 days ago

I think the root of populism includes a belief that voting is a source of moral truth - a leader is morally enabled simply because people voted for them. Conversely a leader could appeal to other things for their source of moral legitimacy, leaving voting merely as a mechanism of accountability

twoev.bsky.social•22 days ago

Bad leader: “What I do is inherently justified and true because you voted for me”

Good leader: “What I do is justified by . You can hold me to account for the outcome through your votes”

whichliz.bsky.social•22 days ago

Underlines the need for media/journalists to interpret data and present to the public impartially - to counteract the spin elsewhere.

ziggysden.bsky.social•22 days ago

Yes, but that won’t get them their clicks and likes, which is what drives their revenue these days, so is unlikely to happen & certainly not in an unbiased fashion.

whichliz.bsky.social•22 days ago

Not all media is click bait? But I take your point.

tanglefist.bsky.social•22 days ago

Have the Greens ever given any indication they'd work as a coalition (or whatever) to support a Labour government? I figured they saw what happened to the LibDems between 2010 and '15.

robfordmancs.bsky.social•22 days ago

Suspect it would be confidence and supply, and also suspect Greens would be biddable (e.g. if Labour offered electoral reform plus bigger green investment)

tanglefist.bsky.social•22 days ago

Do we have any indication whether the membership would vote for that kind of arrangement?

blizard.io•22 days ago

With those numbers I see no coalition able to cobble together a majority.

jeeves10.bsky.social•22 days ago

No way. Tripe!

alanf.bsky.social•22 days ago

The SNP isn't friendly to Labour.

catchafire777.bsky.social•21 days ago

First poll that shows Aberdeenshire rejecting the Tories outright. I have my doubts but perhaps they’ve finally seen the light. 🤞

stevea53.bsky.social•22 days ago

Lib/Lab pact anyone?

ziggysden.bsky.social•22 days ago

Not sure a “fast” switch to PR would be possible. It would take some time to come to this as a majority consensus in the midst of the chaos of working out a functioning government after an inconclusive election. Assuming no work is done this parliament to determine a preferred PR system this

ziggysden.bsky.social•22 days ago

… would need to be worked out first by something like a Royal Commission, minimum 1 year more likely at least 2. How does legislation get passed on such a significant change without another FPTP election with the chosen system in at least the main parties manifestos?

ziggysden.bsky.social•22 days ago

I can see that a GE could be the vehicle for getting public approval rather than a referendum but that would also be tricky ground I think. Finally the legislation would need to be passed & whilst this may be fast tracked if all were in agreement it’s still likely to take months.

ziggysden.bsky.social•22 days ago

Best bet would be for Labour to do the groundwork during this parliament & make introducing PR a manifesto promise in 2028 to get Lib Dem’s, Green & others to lend them their votes. There are groups inside Labour pushing for just that but it’s an uphill struggle!

tom-cb.bsky.social•22 days ago

I mean hardly ideal, but I'd still be raising a glass to the Tories down to 40.

normanhadley.bsky.social•22 days ago

And still the Tories blindly pursue their racism to the bottom.

dpcarey123.bsky.social•22 days ago

Ah, England. Still loving Nigel, in spite of the Brexit porky pies.

mermaidspursej.bsky.social•22 days ago

Did you look at the map of Wales?

dpcarey123.bsky.social•22 days ago

But Scotland! That place were people are a little more socially progressive. Not a shade of blue in sight.

mermaidspursej.bsky.social•22 days ago

I would not despair, because this polling company skews towards Reform. I think it's important for ppl not to feel like Reform taking over on the right is inevitable and stop fighting as a result.

Reform don't actually have any policies apart from Farage's latest barstool rant.

dpcarey123.bsky.social•22 days ago

agreed but so far Labour, with a big majority, look timid and devoid of decent ideas. Their red lines have left them floundering.

dpcarey123.bsky.social•22 days ago

At least some GREEN! But yes, places like Anglesey where i live--voted for Brexit and then for Virginia Crosbie. Boggles the mind.

gregorjclark.bsky.social•22 days ago

Permanent Tory Wipeout sounds lovely, but the same people will still vote for nasty right-wing parties. Just a different badge. A modern day equivalent of the demise of the Whigs. FPTP is a dire system but the problem is that whichever govt we have at any point in time owes its power to it.

jacklondonbluesky.bsky.social•22 days ago

The SNP a " Labour friendly party" - HAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!

They HATE each other.....

robfordmancs.bsky.social•22 days ago

When the question is "who do you want as a PM - Starmer or Farage?" then its very clear where SNP voters' preferences lie. They tend to be on the left economically, socially liberal, and pro devolution/independence. And they really hate Farage. SNP politicians will know all of this.

catus14.bsky.social•22 days ago

I would be really interested to know whether, in that kind of scenario, the Tory Rump was prepared to go into a coalition with Reform to keep Lab-Lib-Green-SNP out (thereby completely killing the Tory brand), or would they try to be an "independent opposition" and rebuild

huwmarshall.substack.com•21 days ago

Maybe Starmer and Labour could stop attacking the SNP and Plaie Cymru and start building a coalition of grown ups?

Comments

Posting Rules

Reply