valisjason.bsky.social - Profile | ThreadSky | a Reddit-style client for Bluesky

1) what happens if SCOTUS continues to enable him? 2) the people will rise up but they need leaders to rally behind

submitted 2 days ago • 13 comments

One way to think about what's happening with Trump getting elected and then waging war on the Constitution and laws is that: It's taken less than 9 months for Trump v. U.S. to almost break the American republic. /1

submitted 2 days ago • 5 comments

Stakeholders have to raise the cost of folding. Tell every institution you work for/with or support that it is not acceptable. And then follow through with actions.

submitted 4 days ago • 4 comments

Urge everyone—and especially all lawyers—to watch this video from Rachel Cohen, the Skadden Arps associate who is trying to press her firm and others to stand up toe Trump’s attempts to bend the profession to his will. And to his ends. www.tiktok.com/t/ZT2GmftpP/

submitted 4 days ago • 23 comments

This story makes a really powerful (and tragically depressing) point: that there is no evidence strong enough to counter a world view anchored in conspiracy theory and reinforced by a multitide of motivated "influencers" — even the death of one's own child.

submitted 4 days ago • 73 comments

Important Steve Teles essay, linking the reasons we do not have abundance to a persistent minoritarianism in our government, particularly at the state and local level www.nationalaffairs.com/publications...

submitted 6 days ago • 0 comments

Chart of cumulative protests reported from Jan 22 - Feb 28, 2017 vs 2025:

submitted 6 days ago • 111 comments

Understand how close we are to this all falling apart. Trump can, arguably, pull security protection from judges at any time. He has already done this to his political enemies. Will any rule against him if their lives are on the line? Anybody who says we are not in a crisis is fooling themselves.

submitted 6 days ago • 32 comments

Stop defining Trump defying the Supreme Court as the red line. He is a lawless tyrant right now. He is failing to comply with court orders right now. He is violating the Constitution and the law right now. We're past all the red lines.

submitted 6 days ago • 66 comments

I suspect this won’t shock you, but a bunch of the right wing marketplace is talking about how Judge Boasberg is a deep state lib lefty who used to be on FISA court and his wife is a lib lefty Dem donor with abortion clinic ties.

submitted 8 days ago • 0 comments

You may not recognize it at first, but life in this country will never be the same if people stop coming from abroad because they are not guaranteed protection under the law. www.nytimes.com/2025/03/16/u...

submitted 9 days ago • 245 comments

once again we at the phones website bring you reporting about the crisis of free speech at American college campuses www.theverge.com/policy/63012...

submitted 11 days ago • 2 comments

"First They Came for Columbia" "We must learn from the past. We cannot remain silent in the face of authoritarian attacks on our peers, even if they have not yet come for us." Me and Levitsky in the Harvard Crimson www.thecrimson.com/article/2025...

submitted 11 days ago • 23 comments

Interesting report using simulation to model the effects of vote leakage, ranking truncation, and candidature on minority representation under various PR systems for state legislative elections. www.newamerica.org/political-re...

submitted 13 days ago • 0 comments

We are hiring a pre-doc at Stanford to work on (among other things) a project called Public Pulse, which will provide reports on public opinion in the US, and potentially fill the void of things like 538. Please share with your undergrads. iriss.stanford.edu/predoc/2025-...

submitted 13 days ago • 22 comments

NEW: Utah Republicans have passed legislation that would end universal vote-by-mail in their state. Utah stood out for a while as the rare red state to really embrace mail voting... but the MAGA attacks on the voting procedures have ended up catching even with this state.

submitted 13 days ago • 12 comments

🚨 New paper (with Kasey Rhee & Nico Studen). We use a new within-precinct design to isolate how ideology affects vote choice holding turnout fixed, analyzing 3.4M precinct observations across state & fed elections (2016-2022). tldr: Ideological moderation affects vote shares, but not by much. 🧵⬇️

submitted 14 days ago • 12 comments

Pentagon abruptly ends all funding for social science research: 91 studies on threats such as climate change, extremism, and disinformation are halted (with thoughts by me)

submitted 15 days ago • 11 comments

As markets plummet again today from Trump's chaotic economic policies, ask yourself: Why would billionaires back policies that tank their own stock values? It’s the taxes. I wrote a step-by-step explainer of how billionaires avoid paying taxes. People are often surprised when I explain it.🧵

submitted 15 days ago • 33 comments

Science Magazine reported on the results of my surveys at Friday's Stand up for Science rally in Washington, DC. #StandUpForScience #StandUpforScience2025 #marchforscience www.science.org/content/arti...

submitted 15 days ago • 0 comments

I wrote this piece about how John Roberts doesn't get nearly enough shit for the predicament we find ourselves in as a country. His decades long crusade against voting rights is responsible.

submitted 15 days ago • 14 comments

The public really needs to understand this. Every university system in the world rests on public funding, there has never been an alternative model at any time in history. We have universities for literally the same reason that we have roads and armies.

submitted 17 days ago • 56 comments

These photos are from today's Stand Up for Science rally today at the Lincoln Memorial in Washington, DC. Photos are courtesy of Amy Kasper, who took them while she was conducting surveys for my research. #StandUpforScience2025 #StandUpForScience

submitted 17 days ago • 1 comment

A few days ago, I posted about how authoritarian leaders fear student activism. I wrote a new article dives much deeper into this pattern – and why Trump's recent threats are so revealing. It's a global, historical phenomenon. (Short 🧵⬇️)

submitted 17 days ago • 13 comments

Just got an email from the Fulbright Association. As of right now, funding has been cut off to 12,500 US citizens currently abroad and and more than 7,400 foreigner scholars and students in the United States

submitted 18 days ago • 221 comments

Lots of talk on X today about rethinking the results produced by close elections RDDs. So, I thought I'd drop a few recent articles about issues that arise in this space so that folks can have them all in one place. 1/N

submitted 19 days ago • 5 comments

Here's how Trump will use his law enforcement powers to intimidate Congress. (Sen. Schumer is being threatened with criminal investigation already.) executivefunctions.substack.com/p/the-trump-...

submitted 21 days ago • 0 comments

No one in DC can bargain in good faith with Trump because he will not follow laws passed by Congress. No one internationally can bargain in good faith with Trump because he will not respect agreements made by the United States. Being a counterparty just makes you a target for another shakedown.

submitted 21 days ago • 130 comments

I have an op-ed in the WPost w/ Nick Stephanopoulos & Eric McGhee on the evaporation of the U.S. House's pro Republican bias in the 2020s. The reasons seem to be fewer Rep. gerrymanders, more Dem. gerrymanders, and a shift in the country's political geography. www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/int...

submitted 22 days ago • 6 comments

📢 We are organizing an Emergency Town Hall at MPSA on Fri April 4 from 3:20-4:50 on the State and Future of American Democracy 📢 Feat Candis Watts Smith, Michael Tesler, Vince Hutchings, Adam Bonica, Seth Masket, Sue Stokes, Nathan Kalmoe, Alison Gash & Hannah Walker. Please share & join us

submitted 22 days ago • 3 comments

I have 2 concerns about the misuse of political science ideas: 1) The public displays thermostatic tendencies in some wealthy democracies, including the United States since 1950. And I would include the tendency for midterm backlash as a thermostatic pattern as well.

submitted 22 days ago • 5 comments

I know it’s tempting to blame voters for putting a felon in the White House who is repeating the crimes for which he was convicted, but it’s important for the future of the country to place the blame appropriately—with the political party that nominated and continues to enable him.

submitted 22 days ago • 0 comments

This is it. The plausible scenario is not that the 2028 elections don’t happen. It’s that they happen with every financial oligarch and major corporation backing the GOP. And every major media organization backing the GOP, except for The NY Times which is trying to be neutral.

submitted 22 days ago • 37 comments

Ominously plausible warnings from @filipecampante.bsky.social of what our descent into competitive authoritarianism could look like

submitted 22 days ago • 36 comments

I want the concept of inclusionary zoning to work, but then when I do the math, it really ends up just looking like a tax on renters (policy illustrated here is 20% VLI @ HCD rents, rounded down)

submitted 25 days ago • 10 comments

1/ A reminder: The Supreme Court refused to enforce the plain language of the 15th Amdt. for a century. Southern states openly defied it, and the Court did nothing. There is nothing stopping them from doing the same on birthright citizenship. Plain language means nothing without political power.🧵⬇️

submitted 26 days ago • 1 comment

Cities, take note. The certainty of punishment –- not the severity — is what stops crime before it happens. 🔹More cops on the streets can cut crime by up to 10% 🔹Clear sightlines, security cameras, and well-maintained public spaces are also effective. www.niskanencenter.org/certainty-as...

submitted 26 days ago • 1 comment

In 2020 in battleground states, 1.9 percent of solid Republicans (as defined by their congressional and state legislative voting) split their ticket for Joe Biden, while 1.2 percent of solid Democrats split their ticket for Donald Trump; ballot data www.nature.com/articles/s41...

submitted 26 days ago • 0 comments

NEW memo from OPM acting director Chuck Ezell saying that fed employees should respond to the 5 bullets email by the 11:59pm deadline tonight unless they had an excused absence today. Absolute madness. Full text:

submitted 28 days ago • 299 comments

Pretty sure it means “We’re breaking contracts, illegally freezing payments. If anyone complains, we’ll point to this, and when we get sued, we’ll show it to a judge, who should laugh it out of court, but by then you’ll be out of work and burdened by legal fees, and we’ll ignore rulings anyway.”

submitted 31 days ago • 11 comments

In modern history, what is the least popular that party leaders have ever been to their OWN voters? Second place was the GOP in 2009, where their net approval with Republican voters was only +6. Currently Dems are -8, shattering all previous records.

submitted 31 days ago • 73 comments

”Silicon Valley’s shift from blue to red is a mirage… In seven of the most affluent Silicon Valley cities — Palo Alto, Los Altos Hills, Los Altos, Los Gatos, Portola Valley, Woodside and Atherton — combined, Kamala Harris won 76.2% of the vote, compared with 20.1% for Trump.”

submitted 32 days ago • 3 comments

I’ll keep pushing this line of analysis because I’m increasingly convinced the clearest path out of this mess is for Dems to adopt a relentless anti-corruption, anti-inequality, anti-oligarchy, pro-democracy platform. The Dem leadership hasn’t realized it yet, but they’re now a reform party.

submitted 32 days ago • 88 comments

When it comes to college rankings, places like UCLA and Stanford often are No. 1. But they're nowhere near the top of a new ranking of CA colleges. Instead, Cal State L.A. is No. 1. The metric by which the schools were judged? Economic mobility. My latest: www.latimes.com/california/s...

submitted 32 days ago • 4 comments

President Trump has his eyes on the Presidio, a clear dig at San Francisco and Nancy Pelosi, his critics say. Got to interview the former Speaker today, and she did not mince words. www.nytimes.com/2025/02/20/u...

submitted 32 days ago • 15 comments