Current Starmer policy re tariffs and ‘end of globalisation’ etc risks not just being wrong but severely damaging the government’s credibility with the financial markets and other states.
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On airport expansion
On water industry nationalisation
On keeping the two child limit
On cutting international aid
On keeping fuel duty low
On increasing the bus fare cap
etc.
Maybe my misinterpretation, but answering yes to ‘it’s the end of globalisation *as we’ve known it*’ is uncontroversial and about change and does not endorse ‘end of globalisation (full stop)’ summary.
Starmer just doesn’t seem to “get” what’s happening in the US - judges there are sidelined, people the govt doesn’t like are seized on the streets, threatening to annex our Commonwealth partner Canada, Musk gives fascist salutes. But Starmer abandons Canada & rolls out the red carpet for Trump.
His words keep "all options open" but his actions close all of them. There are two sides here, Trump's America and the world, including America's democrats. Every time he says something to make one side happy, he closes a door to the other side.
This mess is a few days old. It feels early to attack when we’re presently on the lowest possible tariff. Also there’s the point made about what Starmer and Macron discussed to address future attack.
No it isn't. We just got an info update a few days ago, which was not much surprising/informative i.e. anyone paying attention already knew what was coming, if not precise numbers (or rather made up and stupid but nonetheless indicative for a few weeks perhaps).
This thing where we accept paralysis until we are certain of the details is a huge (cowardice) problem. We don't need to be certain of the details, we need to be able to operate under uncertainty. Exactly how hard Trump is gonna punch us in the face is not essential info. https://bsky.app/profile/nmwilkinson.bsky.social/post/3lgrwx37xrc2q
It is in some regards a policy of continuity (special relationship, do trade deals with the world) but with an additional dose of insularity, at the same time as which the world has changed in such a way as to some of this seem faintly absurd.
Well, UK Labour have briefed the Guardian that Starmer, a bold transformer, is now going to rip up the fiscal rules while UK Labour have briefed the BBC that Starmer, a prudent stabiliser, is going to carry on with current fiscal rules.
Globalisation is enormously in the UK’s interests and the failure to aggressively pursue trade liberalisation with the EU (and others) is increasingly bizarre - especially when that seems to result in part from a complete misread of the situation in the US.
Credibility is perhaps the key attribute of any government - to be believed in - as a government. The demise of the Conservatives is the most obvious precedent for what happens when this vital attribute is lost. Unfortunately, Starmer and co seem to be moving in the same direction.
Either he lacks the vision to see this or he’s being wrongly advised or he’s listening to those buying politicians for personal interests…all of which are troubling.
Totally agree with all the above, except that I'd use words like weak, gullible, credulous, naive and non-room-reading, rather than daft, to describe Starmer's approach.
I would have thought that Trump's tariff shows that we don't have a special relationship. Accept that and pivot quickly to Europe. It also makes defence sense.
I don’t think that is his strategy at all. And I could not imagine folk like Lammy and Olly Robbins being comfortable about signing up to it. Or Rachel Reeves. Likewise folk from the Tony Blair Institute who advise him.
For extra McSweeney-inspired nonsense, “Globalisation has failed but we must continue with the path of neoliberalism… please ignore that large trading bloc just over the channel”.
“The oligarchy told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.”
Ireland around the time I was born was still pre-globalisation. The result was poverty and emigration. Yes, its excesses need to be tamed and its benefits shared widely. But give me globalisation any day compared to the alternative.
It does look that way doesn’t it. In some ways its a repetition of mistakes the Tories made, of misreading a situation and voters they don’t seem to understand
The premise of Brexit was that Britain could somehow get better trade deals on its own than as part of the entire EU. And the commitment of the entire political establishment (including Labour) to "make Brexit work" means they can't acknowledge how crazy that was or do much to undo it.
Tory / Brexit strategies always held the same prospects as that pursued by Monty Python's Crimson Permanent Assurance Co (spoiler alert: it didn't end well)
Striking thing is that @teamlabouruk.bsky.social seems to have learned nothing since; naive & blinkered
And was never resolved. Remain has been saying this to Leave for a while.
"Lay not that flattering unction to your soul,
That not your trespass, but my madness speaks
It will but skin and film the ulcerous place,
Whilst rank corruption, mining all within,
Infects unseen."
Avoiding the discussion means agreeing with the side that was wrong and damaged the country for years to come.
Democracy and authoritarianism are fighting for the world and we are courting the wrong side in the US. If democracy wins in America it won't look very favourably to the UK
There is a meeting in May with U vdL to discuss a reset. Maroš Sef has already said that there cannot be any changing of the treaty before 2026 and that we must have met all the conditions by then. People ranting about us just moving towards Europe simply ignore the facts.
We have pivoted already on defense, but that was a simple issue because everybody including the EU was in new territory. They have problems with extreme right wing governments currently and our most popular politician and party at the moment was the man who, as an MEP was a majore thorn in the side
It's unrealistic though.
Managing Brexit fallout will be something PMs have to deal with for the foreseeable.
Look at the FP problems on Sir Keir's plate.
Gibraltar, the Ukraine *coalition of The willing*, youth visas and fishing rights.
All results of Brexit.
Labour's miserable experience in Scotland over the past 10 years, after their traditional core vote was deeply split by the 2014 independence referendum debate, leading to their stunning fall from political dominance to total irrelevance, must be very much haunting them over Brexit.
ghastly mess, which brutally taught them the huge dangers of politics of identity overriding previous party loyalties in a FPTP election system, they only too well understand the risks of poking the Brexit beast. At its heart, the Brexit debate is about what the UK is in the 21st century.
If Nigel Farage was able to claim that voting Leave was patriotic, in an emotional, heart-tugging way, he could destroy Labour by winning-over a huge chunk of their existing core vote.
The SNP used this tactic after 2014 to win over Labour voters who'd voted Yes to Scottish independence.
It already has. The UK inviting the US President to a state dinner with the King, rather than vocally supporting the independence of a sovereign NATO ally that shares the same head of state, went down badly in Canada.
In fairness the invitation came before the terrible bullying scene in the shitehouse. The King then invited Zelensky to a private meeting in his own home, a far greater honour.
I hope there won't be a state visit, I hope it will be kicked into the long grass, or Trump will be deposed, even better.
I do wonder whether it will happen as Trump becomes increasingly beleaguered.
If it doesn't No10 will presumably try to pretend that the invitation was never offered.
Given that the invitation was at the behest of the government, and hand written by the King, in an attempt to 'buy' goodwill for Zelensky next day.
I think Starmers ears will still be ringing from the 'telling' he got from the King for allowing Trump to read it out in a press conference! 😒
Her late Majesty probably couldn't conceive of a Prime Minister lying to her, which is why Johnson got away with it.
I think the King, although not a confrontational man, is less trusting than his mother and will stand up more for the countries and the world's interests.
Like most things apart from the Farage riots Starmer’s default position seems to be to remain aloof & inscrutable.
His grasp of economics seems stark & he is badly served relying on Reeves/Treasury constraint.
It's just the good old pandering to the brexiteer voter and perhaps even to some sleepy anti capitalist Corbynista. Just the tired narrative of brexit in a MAGA trenchcoat.
It's yet another example of British political types being far too obsessed with American political trends and culture.
I mean, as crazy as the Trump tariffs are, if there is one country where an aggressive tariff policy could work it is the US (resources + market power). The UK is not the US.
To be fair to Starmer and his right wing cabinet, there's a shitload of money to be made from the yank after dinner speech circuit after they're done with politics in about 3 years.
Comments
"I have seen this movie before"
Brexit is a globalised byword for needless self harm
Trump tariffs will make it worse not better.
Both things can be true.
On Brexit
On welfare cuts and growth
On winter fuel payments
On NHS
On mental health diagnosis
On water industry nationalisation
On keeping the two child limit
On cutting international aid
On keeping fuel duty low
On increasing the bus fare cap
etc.
Accepting Israel govt’s line on Gaza
Trying to do a deal with Trump - a felon and serial liar.
*“Starmer vows to protect UK businesses from tariff 'storm'*
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c89g7g5lx2ko
https://bsky.app/profile/nmwilkinson.bsky.social/post/3lgrwiyfq4k2q
https://bsky.app/profile/nmwilkinson.bsky.social/post/3lgrwx37xrc2q
https://insidelambeth1.wordpress.com/2024/07/01/keir-starmer-and-lambeth-labour/
Or the sort of kite flying that is only effective at getting you struck by lightning?
It's almost like a continuity government at this stage.
The real physical world, & real essential supply reliability. is about to get a lot more relevant than clicks
“The oligarchy told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.”
I think it’s because people’s visceral awareness of cross-border economic integration is so much higher + EU now coding left.
It feels like their attempts to stick to promises so as to not lose the trust of voters is losing the trust of voters.
And attempts to not upset the markets are upsetting the markets.
These are political choices and perhaps missteps. Still time to respond?
Striking thing is that @teamlabouruk.bsky.social seems to have learned nothing since; naive & blinkered
Fun refresher👇
https://youtu.be/ecFBcpY9NHI
He's got the political space to say that and look to integrate more with the EU.. This is no longer 2016, where global trade rules could be relied on.
"Lay not that flattering unction to your soul,
That not your trespass, but my madness speaks
It will but skin and film the ulcerous place,
Whilst rank corruption, mining all within,
Infects unseen."
Hamlet, Shakespeare.
Democracy and authoritarianism are fighting for the world and we are courting the wrong side in the US. If democracy wins in America it won't look very favourably to the UK
But it's daft to think the topic can be wished into oblivion.
Managing Brexit fallout will be something PMs have to deal with for the foreseeable.
Look at the FP problems on Sir Keir's plate.
Gibraltar, the Ukraine *coalition of The willing*, youth visas and fishing rights.
All results of Brexit.
From that
1/
2/
The SNP used this tactic after 2014 to win over Labour voters who'd voted Yes to Scottish independence.
3/
I keep seeing it framed as some sort of ploy, but I see no reason to doubt he really believes this stuff.
I hope there won't be a state visit, I hope it will be kicked into the long grass, or Trump will be deposed, even better.
If it doesn't No10 will presumably try to pretend that the invitation was never offered.
I think Starmers ears will still be ringing from the 'telling' he got from the King for allowing Trump to read it out in a press conference! 😒
I think the King, although not a confrontational man, is less trusting than his mother and will stand up more for the countries and the world's interests.
His grasp of economics seems stark & he is badly served relying on Reeves/Treasury constraint.
Just a suggestion.
That interdependence may once have been a strength but is now a serious weakness.
But it shouldn’t stop us realigning with the EU at once and starting to undo Brexit.
I mean, as crazy as the Trump tariffs are, if there is one country where an aggressive tariff policy could work it is the US (resources + market power). The UK is not the US.