Relieved to see that the Budget Lab numbers are close to my back-of-the-envelope estimate. We're still looking at a shock an order of magnitude bigger than Smoot-Hawley
Reposted from
Ernie Tedeschi
• 2025 tariffs raise the average effective tariff rate by 22.9pp *pre-substitution*, before consumers & business shift purchases, similar to pre-Apr 9 announcement.
• *Post-substitution*, China imports collapse to 4% of imports, so 2025 becomes a 15.7pp increase in avg.
2/7
• *Post-substitution*, China imports collapse to 4% of imports, so 2025 becomes a 15.7pp increase in avg.
2/7
Comments
Signed,
Barely Numerate and Worried
- Isaac Asimov, Forward the Foundation
What’s the loss in consumer surplus?
How do tariffs reshape trade flows?
What global fallout are we inviting?
What ripple effects will tariffs have across supply chains, consumers, and key sectors like ag, transit, and manufacturing?
And where is he going to get all that trashy stuff he sells? We all know it comes from China.
@pkrugman.bsky.social
Seems to me a significant difference......
I’m guessing money goes to the top, and Trump/oligarchs invest in US “Freedom Cities,” a.k.a. Libertarian havens with no rules/regulations.
He already vetted 10 locations in his last admin. Look to the national parks