Hmm, wouldn't it be something if this election analyst / high-stakes gambler started working for a predictive market? That would really cause some questions, like "Is he using his reputation to influence the very markets he works for?"
“They’re moving the lines based on my bets, they must think I’m a genius” no, you’re betting $10,000 at once on an event where the total pool previously was $36; the lines have to move.
*predictive analytics is all sizzle no steak
*He got high on his own supply after his Obama era success
*He's completely unable to accept that his early success WASN'T due entirely to his model building genius
*He's been lost in the woods since 2016
*He's so far gone he thinks gamblers are geniuses
I suspect that last point is related to what i'm pretty sure is an *enormous* gambling habit he's developed. Between his stupid book, stupid website, and his challenging everyone to bets on twitter
He was always a gambler, that's how he got started - he was a mid-stakes limit hold 'em poker player before 538. But he apparently still needs to chase the high-stakes rush.
If you have a dogmatic belief that prediction as an art is solvable, and a dogmatic belief in the PERFECT EFFICIENT ALL-KNOWING MARKETS they teach you about in econ-101, then "there is secret knowledge, and gamblers are the guardians of it" is actually the only possible conclusion
Oh, I removed 538 from the sites I visit because he has been taking in all the junk polls from Trump and the GOP. He used to seem to have a sound system for calculating this stuff, he's let it go to hell.
Exactly. I’ve met many people who think they are good football betters because they’ve won 60% of this season’s bets. One WSD isn’t close to enough to move a line.
Exactly. It's delusion, through and through. He was a high-stakes poker player, so being around that scene, I would imagine you know how sports gambling works. He might know it and just be such a narcissist he thinks things are different for him.
Every book is different, but commercial books (DraftKings, FanDuel, etc) buy their lines from market makers (Pinnacle, Circa, and other limitless books we never see advertised). Lines move based on who is betting how much at the market makers. They use decade-long gambler profiles, not…
Because someone decided start betting at WSD. Even if silver hit 100% of his bets at the tournament, they wouldn’t move the line because he’s bet so few he could be in the variance window.
just as with the statistical data this bunch calculate, the essence is mostly"for entertainment only." But these childish characteristics are more amusing than any of the work product.
This. When you're laying down thousands on a bet that previously had $50 in the pool, the lines move. Lines have nothing to do with probability, and everything to do with balancing bets.
He would probably be a more thoughtful analyst if he got help with what appears to be a gambling addiction. (Not at all being glib or snarky--I think it's likely true!)
Comments
Hang on, I'm getting some new information here...
*He got high on his own supply after his Obama era success
*He's completely unable to accept that his early success WASN'T due entirely to his model building genius
*He's been lost in the woods since 2016
*He's so far gone he thinks gamblers are geniuses
https://bsky.app/profile/shuchancellor.online/post/3l6ps7inqro26
Nate thinks he's a genius gambler because he accounts for 99% of the volume of bets by dollar on a darts match
Fucking clownshoes.
The good news is he’s too proud of the stats to compromise them for money. He’s not putting his thumb on the scale for Thiel or whatever.