laurencebroers.bsky.social
Researcher, contemporary South Caucasus politics & regional dynamics | Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict | associate fellow, Chatham House | co-editor-in-chief, Caucasus Survey | recovering Xile
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But this is about optics, not substance, as several major issues remain both divisive and unresolved, under conditions where the military asymmetry remains stark and deterrence extremely weak.
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Establishing a new baseline for future talks that eclipses the Russian-mediated and co-signed Ceasefire Statement that ended the war in November 2020 might provide a guardrail against future re-insertions of Russian influence, and would validate the bilateral format that Baku prefers.
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It seems then that today’s announcement may be more about asserting ownership of the agreement in advance of major regional and global re-alignments that could see Russia reasserting its role as third-party mediator.
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The extent to which such propaganda and the ‘Western Azerbaijan’ discourse subsides in the event of a treaty signature would be a seminal test of that document’s prospects. No sign of that whatsoever yet.
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Meanwhile war propaganda continues in Azerbaijan, alleging Armenian plans for a springtime attack, as well as the retro-irredentism of the ‘Western Azerbaijan’ discourse laying claim to the whole of Armenia.
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Long-term observers of the process are sceptical. The most contentious issue, connectivity & corridors, is not included in the agreement. Another issue, highlighted by @olesyavart.bsky.social, is whether this announcement is enough to kick-start the moribund Turkish-Armenian normalization process.
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But a referendum on constitutional change in Armenia won’t happen before 2026 and brings its own risks, especially if seen to be happening at Azerbaijan's behest (Armenian PM N. Pashinyan has been introducing an alternative rationale, but that's for another thread).
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Azerbaijan continues to insist on revision of Armenia’s Constitution, although it seems possibly ‘in the next phase’ per AZ FM J. Bayramov, and on the formal dissolution of the Minsk Group: two already known and expected preconditions.
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These concern the presence of third-party forces along the Arm-Az border, i.e. the EU Mission in Armenia, and the legal cases at the ICJ & other international courts. It seems that Armenia has agreed to the withdrawal of both EUMA, perhaps after its current mandate ends, and the court cases.
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As so often is the case, there appears to be less to this than immediately meets the eye. What seems to have been agreed is the two sticking points in the normalization agreement that have been the focus of recent negotiations.
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Very glad for you, Cavid, I hope you can resume your plans for research and study
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Congratulations! A great appointment for Crisis Group, a great opportunity for Joshua and a great benefit for the rest of us!
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He'll be presenting his book, 'Ashes of Our Fathers: Inside the Fall of Nagorno-Karabakh' in London on 30 January.