Musk is today laying out the domestic terrorism-based pretext ("trans violence" against Tesla properties) that can justify acting on a targeting approach like this:
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For anyone uninformed, HRT at correct doses doesn't make people emotionally volatile. A lot of people find it stabilizing. It can take some getting used to at first, like a lot of medications, but we're much more likely to be victims of violence than perpetrators.
UK prison population statistics paper, quotes that only trans individuals who have had a local case board are counted. And that it likely underestimates the actual amount of trans prisoners due to not declaring their identity or not being in— https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN04334/SN04334.pdf
Prison long enough to have a case board. TLDR the actual amount of trans prisoners is impossible to estimate, so the statistic on trans sexual offenses is absolutely lower than what that dumb chart says.
for one, you cannot extrapolate data in this way to apply it to the entire trans population that is fucking crazy. i also think that there is no way possible that there are this many trans sex offenders and if examined closer it is likely some loosely linked crime like sex work.
we would never hear the end of it if this was true. it would be in the daily mail and new york post, as well as the nyt, every single day. this is blood libel.
It appears that prostitution classified as a sex offense in the UK. So we are looking at a misapplication of statistical analysis and a categorical misrepresentation of british law to an american audience to whip up a frenzy.
that does make sense if true with the comparison to cis women but still even taking into account this is being wildly misrepresented and the conclusion is statistically impossible. this is satanic panic levels of libel against a minority.
Yep. That's TERF island for you. It's sickening, but it is also sad that so many people don't seem to recognize the obvious scapegoating going on. Ignorance is endemic in America.
I've heard so many terfs make the argument that (cis) women cannot commit sexual assault, and it's absurd to listen to them defend people who have committed sexual assault with "no this could never be as bad as penetration"
The data is real, but it is misleading. Trans women are disproportionately incarcerated for rape, sexual assault and sex work. However, these are British crime statistics where "rape" is defined in law as requiring a penis. In the US, trans women and cis women have closer statistics.
It'll be Herschel Grynszpan all over again. Oppress a group of people, drive one of them to violence, use that as a pretext for greater oppression and greater violence.
(This is assuming that trans people are among the perpetrators at all, which may turn out to be true but I can't really take Insurrection Barbie's word for it. Otherwise it's the Reichstag Fire all over again.)
Oh that chart. Has anyone asked Elon to follow the links to the sources in that chart he's responding to there? Cause I've seen it around and the links go to dead ends.
He doesn't care, it's a pretense to target trans people he finally got a list of. Data and facts mean nothing to people who only are concerned with money and genocide
I notice it says "incarcerated sex offenders" -- in the US you can be a "sex offender" if you get arrested for survival prostitution, having your girlfriend's nudes on your phone if you're both 17, or public urination.
It's really, really sad that Elon's batshit insanity over trans people not only led to the downfall of Twitter (after the Babylon Bee got censored for misgendering Rachel Levine) but ... all this.
Also: If all his children were conceived via IVF, are we sure he's not a virgin?
Misuse of statistics by sick fascists makes people trans and cis alike, violent. Dudes such a pathetic scumbag. Millions will die because if what he has already done, and this shit eating demon thinks he can blame others. Someone throw him back into the boiling like already.
I understand that you mean well, but this isn't constructive. Testosterone is a life-saving medication for a lot of trans people, and we have to deal with the fallout of this stigma. Equating it with steroid abuse keeps trans people in the closet and is a significant anti-trans talking point.
Agreed. Particularly in the context of trans people being smeared as violent, though, I feel like it's important that we don't imply "anabolic steroid use" is all it takes. Overuse, certainly.
If the statement he made was true, then you'd have to lock up every male human past puberty -- because unless there is a hormonal dysfunction, they all have testosterone in their systems.
And cis women naturally produce T in the ovaries as well, at a higher volume than E. That's why they can suffer symptoms of T deficiency after menopause. It's something that's normal and healthy for people's bodies to have after childhood
Elon is likely also in a distressed, vengeful emotional state because of the Teen Vogue cover story that just dropped today with his estranged trans daughter Vivian Jenna Wilson, who is deeply critical of the Trump administration https://www.teenvogue.com/story/vivian-jenna-wilson-elon-musk-trans-youth
Vivian: "He's a pathetic man-child. Why would I feel scared of him? Ohhh, he has so much power. Nah, nah, nah. I don't give a fuck. Why should I be scared of this man? Because he's rich? Oh, no, I'm trembling. Ooh, shivering in my boots here. I don't give a fuck how much money anyone has. I don't."
How I put it: "The world itself seemed to have faded away in some sense, like a video game level that I was moving around in while not actually being part of it. The profound numbness lasted for more than a year, and in this state, I couldn't gather any motivation to do what was expected of me."
For me it was like... I felt like a body but not a person. I did the things that a person was supposed to do, I engaged in all the rites and performances, but in the place where there was supposed to be an internal life there was just a void. No goals, no aspirations, just a sort of hollow shell.
that man is like a lot of fascists.
children to them are like a lot of people see pets. cute but in the end end some thing they must control fully, must mold so their child conforms. they dont give a shit about rights, they rather have a dead child than a trans child, or a vaccinated child
I was had constant ideation of self-mutilation, from 12-13. The reality of transitioning wasn't a thing to me until I saw an HBO special at 14 and it was like "OMG theres a fix for me!" and I knew immediately that's what I wanted to do.
But I was a street kid from age 11, starving, no options.
Ok I only got a little ways in, I'll save the rest for tomorrow, but damn she's so smart and witty in the interview too! (And they had a trans writer interview her! Imagine that!)
can I just say that Vivian is a badass and I hope she does good things with her sizeable inheritance once that fucking dipshit dies (though I do feel so bad that she's genetically related to that fucker. Too bad you can't change your genetics)
I bet he got a prophecy years ago that his eldest daughter will be his downfall, resulting in his ivf boys only spree, only for it to all fall into place like this anyway. Link it with the ancient Greek cronos myth and flesh it out in a deeply ironic movie script pls.
Full stop: why are you throwing her under the wheels right now when it's pretty obvious from the things she has actually said recently that she's not getting any parenting support with a sick child (dunno which one) and the eldest has been basically taken from her? Please recall that Elon is the
If I remember correctly the "sex offenders" argument is "kind of" true in the UK.
But "sex offender" includes people that literally prostitute themselves to survive, and that graph assumes trans people are 100-1000 times more prevalent.
The statistic is also just manipulated. The organization that put it out 1) labelled everyone in jail for "sex crimes" as a sex offender when most were in jail for things like sex work and 2) labelled everyone in for "sex crimes" as trans when most countries don't record that sort of thing.
Oh hey, I remember debunking that awful chart a while ago, it’s been around for a while. After a lot of digging through UK census data, it turns out they were counting all arrested trans people as sex offenders in the chart or something. I think it was that anyway, but… very wrong either way.
There is a lot of missing context to those statistics as well. Like whether the offenders transitioned before or after committing a crime, the fact that trans people are more likely to be discriminated against with the courts, similar to POC... etc.
By the UK cops own admission, they do not track whether or not someone is trans unless it’s relevant to their incarceration which skews the data in a way that TERFs can manipulate.
I feel like that "statistic" in the second pic is total bullshit considering trans people are a lot more likely to be sexually assaulted compared to cis people
The raw number of 92/48000 is likely correct, the issue comes with the fact that it is MAJOR extrapolation. They're extrapolating so ridiculously far away that the data point is laughably inaccurate.
The 48000 probably isn't correct. That's 0.1% of the AMAB population (I think it's based on the AMAB population rather than the entire group), but the corresponding Scottish census found 0.44% of people had a trans history or self-identified as trans, so it's probably a large underestimate.
The best way I can explain it would be bags of beans. You have a bag with 30,000 white beans. But you go through the entire bag, and find 100 black beans. You can say that there are 3 black beans per 1000 white beans. Same for your bag of 30,000 red beans. You find 11,000 black beans.
It’s even worse than that - the stats are based on a FOI where they asked where trans inmates were housed - the MOJ refused to confirm what crimes they had been imprisoned for - so in your analogy your black beans wouldn’t even need to be beans
You can reasonably say that you have roughly 300 black beans per 1000 red beans.
But now you open the brown bean bag. And it only has 48 beans. 9 of them are black. But you want to extrapolate, so you say if you had 1000 brown beans youd have 187 black beans. Youre just guessing by that point.
A fundamental issue with that stat is that numbers in prison is not number of convictions is not number of perpetrators. For that chain of proxy outcomes to work you need courts and cops that don't hate trans women and love cis men.
They're also using the lower bound estimate for the denominator (ignoring trans people in the census who didn't specify a gender identity), but that's by the by given the bigger issues of data quality and appropriateness of the thung they're measuring.
Maga are control freaks. If the administration begins to fail (with an unnecessary international trade war), obviously, Trump is likely to respond with a hunt for scapegoats and increased authoritarianism.
I see folks correctly tearing down the crime against statistics here, but just to be clear: the "three out of four" is incorrect too, right? Because that's incredibly unlikely unless they deliberately went hunting for scapegoats.
This is evil but sloppy enough for us to fight. The government cannot mount a sustainable pretext for terrorism based on Israel and Tesla, things that their base will not actively go protest in defense of. We will show up in bigger crowds, angrier than they are because we have real things to lose.
The way he's completely missing the point where his existence is putting the lives of queer and trans folks at risk, so of course that specific demographic is going to act out against him specifically. Not only that, he goes against everything this community has fought for.
Also iirc the majority of trans "sex offenders" are deemed as such for nonviolent subsistence sex work. People are shitty to us but fetishize us, and some gotta use the latter to get by.
I have zero source to cite because I am tired and my head hurts, so research before spreading further 😅
The data is probably very incorrect ya. But from what I hear the main thing that skews this statistic is them being imprisoned for sex work, rather than actual violence.
of course they're citing dogshit studies with an already anti-trans bias. not to mention the massively disparate sample size of inmates. Extrapolating out such a small sample size is some "baby's first stats class" sampling bias.
Fascists r all pussy, it's in the game. They always have to pretend as if they r under attack and have to retaliate, or strike preemptively to defend themselves. To themselves included
The 2nd statistic is also just manipulated. The organization that put it out 1) labelled everyone in jail for "sex crimes" as a sex offender when most were in jail for things like sex work and 2) labelled everyone in for "sex crimes" as trans when most countries don't record that sort of thing.
one thing, obviously is that ”sex offences” here count a number of didferent things, but anothe ris that if you look at crimes committed by a small minority group, 1 person out of 100 is statistically more than 1 person out of 10,000.
and that’s not accounting for how less likely police are to act, and courts to convict, in cases involving the larger group. meta studies of rape kit backlogs usually show that many serial rapists have been reported (sometimes repeatedly) before they get arrested.
this is nowhere near as important, but a person calling themselves "Insurrection Barbie" trying to label others domestic terrorists (trans people no less) is way too on the nose
Besides the necessary debunking that many people are doing here, it is also important to remember that minority groups are extremely more likely to be arrested and incarcerated than majority groups. Plus, punishments are far more extreme for minorities than for majorities. This is systemic bias.
I hate the misuse of statistics. Sex Offenders include those that were incarcerated for commercial sexual transactions. Or as they prefer to call themselves Sex Workers
It's also an undeniable fact that cishet men are by far the most violent, virulently dangerous subculture in the country. What limitations on their civil rights is the S. African willing to endure?
This is SUCH a crucial point. Trans /GNC folks are overpoliced (see "walking while trans" laws which could also fall under 'sex offender'), and when you throw in commercial/survival sex work, it's easy to predict what happens next.
Similar arguments came up a lot when I was monitoring fatal violence against the trans community. Folks would cry foul if someone we memorialized was killed by LEO/security guards while shoplifting and use this to paint trans folks as violent--rather than wonder why lethal force was being used
Right? The knee-jerk correlation that legal "offense" === violence is infuriating, especially when the contextual labeling is right there. He has to know he's just playing to bias.
I know for a fact that the 16 trans women that are in Federal prisons because each one is suing the government and they can not be considered a class because there aren't enough of them
I'm calling 100% BS. I looked at the "source" files, including the data supposedly used to extract the estimates. Gender is defined as binary -- male or female. *Nothing* I can find identifies trans people. So the estimates are concocted or the source isn't included. Both BS.
I've said this exact thing to someone pushing this narrative a while ago and they blocked me lmfao they know they're lying and they revel in the harm they cause
It is. That's sexual offending, not sexual violence, and I'm 90% sure it includes arrests for sex work; doing sex work (often by necessity rather than choice), and getting arrested for it, are both more likely for trans people as I recall.
From comments elsewhere in the thread, the 48000 is also a massive underestimate, there are way more trans people than that in the UK (this is UK data). That's 0.1%, but the corresponding Scottish survey found 0.44% with different wording, so it's probably more like 140k, making the rate far lower.
The point is 1.3% of gender z did mark themselves as transgender.
This percentage decreases with age. At some ages it is 0.09% transgender.
We don't know the true transgender population anywhere.
That graph and the Muskrats sharing it don't realize that in the UK, "sex offender" includes prostitution and even consensual adult sex done in, for instance, a public toilet. Most incarcerated trans women are probably in prison due to engaging in sex work.
based on the one report in uk that looked only at people with long sentences
(basically harming/killing people or repeated SA)used by terfs pretending its representative for all jailed trans people?
coming from the UK, TERF island bc its a country with transphobic politicians, courts & media.
I left Twitter because I got tired of debunking these same lies over and over and over again it was the biggest waste of time, they know they're pushing lies.
The first time I ever did jury duty, it was the trial of a perpetrator of a violent robbery. His “defense” was he was a chronic user of PCP. Ketamine is fairly similar to angel dust. Elon has brain damage.
That bit is normal in Commonwealth countries. Every Criminal case is "His Majesty vs." or in this case "His Majesty's Prison System". In the U.S. you'd say "The State".
Right, not to go too into this but that's why I was wondering where it came from. I know it would say which state/locality, which federal agency, or how the data were aggregated across them if it were US-based. Just one more tell Elon musk isn't interested in methodology.
Not that many years ago the GOP was all for "Vandalizing" Prius, Toyota Prius dealerships and random Prius owners in parking lots over how "unsafe" Prius were. But now its terrorism?
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https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN04334/SN04334.pdf
https://www.reddit.com/r/VaushV/s/O2n6p8Y2eQ
What a sad father and person.
Also: If all his children were conceived via IVF, are we sure he's not a virgin?
"roid rage" has been a thing for years - a known side effect of anabolic steroid use.
Wonder if USA media will fact check any of it...
Of course he's emotional.
looking in, as if through a pane of glass, at someone else who isn’t me
I hope she is OK.
children to them are like a lot of people see pets. cute but in the end end some thing they must control fully, must mold so their child conforms. they dont give a shit about rights, they rather have a dead child than a trans child, or a vaccinated child
But I was a street kid from age 11, starving, no options.
He is always anti-trans, but it really seems to surface and become a large percentage of his 100+ daily tweets when Vivian makes the news.
And likely abused Claire. There's pretty solid evidence she wasn't doing great living with him.
https://bsky.app/profile/midnightmasseffect.bsky.social/post/3ljdvl567s22p
But "sex offender" includes people that literally prostitute themselves to survive, and that graph assumes trans people are 100-1000 times more prevalent.
Those charts look dubious at best. Not going to occur to average viewer but worth saying.
But now you open the brown bean bag. And it only has 48 beans. 9 of them are black. But you want to extrapolate, so you say if you had 1000 brown beans youd have 187 black beans. Youre just guessing by that point.
I don't even know a single trans person whose went to jail personally.
I have zero source to cite because I am tired and my head hurts, so research before spreading further 😅
Jailed and kept in holding, much more likely. But Elon is basically saying EVERY trans femme american has a violent record of past or present.
And it would make sense that it would be for sex work. It's kind of one of those classic things that is more strictly enforced on queer people.
There's no evidence for any of that.
Not having post editing is annoying, reminds me of tumblr in a not good way.
Further there is not only 48k trans women in the UK, possibly 10x more.
The UK also definitionally excludes women as possible perpetrators of SA crimes.
I'm no math wizard, but even I can see that's utter nonsense
Also, a German friend asked me, does the term 'sexual offending' include sex workers?
Because that would put a very different psin on things 🤔
Don't buy a Tesla.
What a pathetic loser
Richest man in the damn world, and he still acts like this :P
"I'm gonna get my big strong daddy Trump to beat you up :((((((("
(I hated typing that, lmao)
granted, the graph designer extrapolating numbers per million from 1/25th of that is also intentionally misleading
Just looking at the wording on that chart shows it wasn’t exactly a neutral source. God he disgusts me.
He's a spewer of racist garbage that should be called out as blatant advocacy for violence.
https://bsky.app/profile/ammykay.bsky.social/post/3lktdydmiw22b
none of it is real everything they post is lies.
https://archive.is/5bIVF
https://bit.ly/3H3JZES
It's a deliberate ploy.
This percentage decreases with age. At some ages it is 0.09% transgender.
We don't know the true transgender population anywhere.
(basically harming/killing people or repeated SA)used by terfs pretending its representative for all jailed trans people?
coming from the UK, TERF island bc its a country with transphobic politicians, courts & media.
https://www.reddit.com/r/transgenderUK/comments/1glp5g3/lies_damned_lies_and_statistics/
wishing all trans people safety, going to do everything I can to stand with you