Gotta say this holds up quite well. Here's my thoughts about where things stand now after Schumer has finally shown his cards. Seems clear he has enough Yes votes on cloture to give Trump and Musk their bill. He probably has at least a couple to spare. The vote is tomorrow morning. The odds ... - ThreadSky

joshtpm.bsky.social • 1 day ago

Gotta say this holds up quite well. Here's my thoughts about where things stand now after Schumer has finally shown his cards. Seems clear he has enough Yes votes on cloture to give Trump and Musk their bill. He probably has at least a couple to spare. The vote is tomorrow morning. The odds ...

Reposted from Josh Marshall

Okay, Schumer's speech was a head fake. This is the Senate D caucus trying to fool their own supporters. Sorry to say that but that's what's happening.

Comments

as-i-see-it.bsky.social•1 day ago

Selling out Dem voters once again. Dammit that guy needs replaced.

helloblue75.bsky.social•1 day ago

It's the same as it ever was. Trying to save their "power and prestige" they *think* they have. They have none. They get bullied, they give in and then they get ridiculed for it. That's how it works in Trump World. Over and over and over again.

rachelredfern5.bsky.social•1 day ago

This will devastate DC. It's sad how little notice that gets.

rfc19129.bsky.social•1 day ago

Ok so what are our marching orders. We stand at the ready

jkelly25.bsky.social•1 day ago

I wrote my senators to inform them that my contributions to democratic committees and current senators will not resume if they allow cloture to be invoked. I’ll save my money for challengers.

mimi1016.bsky.social•1 day ago

You will have trouble raising a dime until there’s a change in leadership

hkfinan.bsky.social•1 day ago

This is going to come down to them giving them passing it because they want to leave town, isn’t it?

mikenp40.bsky.social•1 day ago

Coons wanted to shut down Impeachment so he could go home for Valentine's day. They DGAF.

hkfinan.bsky.social•1 day ago

I remember that. Their priorities are absolute trash

desertmage65.bsky.social•1 day ago

It's hard to believe that the two senators from New York, a state with the most to lose if the illegal impoundments and cuts continue, are just going to ratify the crime spree.

stacylymb.bsky.social•1 day ago

I’m a constituent and I AM LIVID!

johnnapa.bsky.social•1 day ago

They are cowards. Every one of them that votes in favor of this should be voted out!!!

henleyparker.bsky.social•1 day ago

https://bsky.app/profile/henleyparker.bsky.social/post/3lkc3nmql7c2t

xiruxi.bsky.social•1 day ago

Thank you Josh for being honest with us and calling this out. I think you nailed him. Very despicable and deceitful behavior on his part. He needs to step down.

thegreatkramer.bsky.social•1 day ago

Believing the worst in Democratic leadership is always the best bet.

natureone.bsky.social•1 day ago

Cowards.

ztopia.bsky.social•1 day ago

Jettison the cloture cowards.

rodneylewis.bsky.social•1 day ago

This party will never get another cent out of me. I'm unsubscribing from everyone of their damn fundraising emails.

heartmama.bsky.social•1 day ago

If you're a registered dem change to indy. If more ppl did that in mass, they might get the message. They don't mind asking you for $$, but when you need them to work for you, they're out.

rodneylewis.bsky.social•23 hours ago

My state has closed primaries otherwise I would. There are many local elections in my area where the primary essentially is the election and so being an independent would effectively limit much of my ability to vote for my representation in most local offices

heartmama.bsky.social•22 hours ago

Same here. There was a ballot initiative to have open primaries, but it failed. And the state Dems campaigned against it. I really hate our current system.

joshuavkidd.bsky.social•1 day ago

Chuckie sowing the seeds of the liberal tea party that crashes on his head is gonna be something.

hollyhockcottage.bsky.social•1 day ago

Makes my head spin. Please explain as you were speaking to a third grader.

mraulston.bsky.social•1 day ago

BURN THIS PARTY DOWN THEN SHOOT THE ASHES INTO THE SUN.

xiruxi.bsky.social•1 day ago

F off Boris

stuadel.bsky.social•1 day ago

Did you watch Schumer on Chris Hayes? He answered every question. You know more than him?

I hope Schumer is right…

joshtpm.bsky.social•1 day ago

2/ look long. But I don't think this is over. Additional pressure has a shot at upsetting this apple cart even now.

ortz.bsky.social•1 day ago

With friends like these…

sunfolk.bsky.social•1 day ago

robert-e-630.bsky.social•1 day ago

We need to keep calling. - ensure that more than half senate dems vote No

tobellz.bsky.social•1 day ago

Half? It's going to be like 80%. This is a bad CR. No self-respecting Democrat should vote for it.

joshtpm.bsky.social•1 day ago

3/ There's a a byword for at TPM: fundamental honesty with readers. That means not only the obvious, don't lie to them. It also means don't hold back critical information. Certainly don't ever play them for fools. There has to be an analogous byword for elected officials. Your representatives ...

taygee.bsky.social•1 day ago

When @schumer.senate.gov colludes with the nazis to continue the naziisms, he's making us all nazis.

We're all Nazis as of tomorrow's vote.

joshtpm.bsky.social•1 day ago

4/ don't have to and sometimes may be obligated not to do what you want. But they should never play their voters for fools. Schumer tried to play his voters for fools here. He tried to engineer a performative stand down. He wanted to keep his hands clean while still allowing the CR to pass.

symbiocracy.bsky.social•1 day ago

he's spineless scum and there needs to be protests at every senate dems office tomorrow demanding they remove him from power, we can't survive with traitors like him in charge

joshtpm.bsky.social•1 day ago

5/ The events of the last 24 hours made that impossible. He had to put his cards on the table. Very very hard to ever forget that happened. As I said, there's still a chance the tide cld shift here again. I wonder how much the level of voter anger of this will register over the next 18 hours.

as-i-see-it.bsky.social•1 day ago

A lot!!

punkey.org•1 day ago

Collaborationists. The only word to describe Schumer and his ilk now. They are collaborating out of fear.

trypax.charityweb.net•1 day ago

The Vichy Caucus

xavex.bsky.social•1 day ago

Or just allies

boohetz.bsky.social•1 day ago

I will be calling his office tomorrow, and that is a first for me. It probably won’t do much, but at least I will have tried.

1realbambi.bsky.social•1 day ago

I think Chuck is worthless.

johnbrownwasright.bsky.social•1 day ago

The Yglesias centrist consultant types are gonna blow up the party. They are all in favor of what Schumer is doing here

northcoastnews.bsky.social•1 day ago

You’re quibbling about his communications strategy. Ok. You have a point there. But the bigger issue is the massive political risk of doing the shutdown now and sharing the blame. Fact is a recession and stock market collapse is coming. They can’t stop it. Right not Trump and Musk will be blamed.

rini1983.bsky.social•1 day ago

People in DC need to help the rest of us out here. We cannot get down there and this cannot go unprotested.

prolixpost.bsky.social•1 day ago

people in DC are showing up for this in massive numbers because our local government will be kneecapped by the CR. people who have federal representation, please help us: https://51st.news/spending-bill-dc-residents-no-reps/

orangeexpat.bsky.social•1 day ago

Not much will register given that he’s not answering the phone and VM is turned off.

section5.bsky.social•1 day ago

Ok, @joshtpm.bsky.social . Who are the Senators to call? We assume here that Schumer and Fetterman are hopeless. Who is left to pressure?

jessicabess.bsky.social•1 day ago

Durbin! Schatz!

vanfirth.bsky.social•1 day ago

Quisling

jfsdonovan.bsky.social•1 day ago

thank you for all your info. it has been invaluable

thebookwizard.bsky.social•1 day ago

Oh, I called mine again. They’re likely NOs but I’m never sure with them so I gave them yet another reminder

devin-eleven.bsky.social•1 day ago

Schumer is out of the Republican collaborator closet now. He, and every Dem senator that votes for cloture, can be blamed for every bad thing Trump does for the next six months.

kelpkelpkelp.bsky.social•1 day ago

Schumer is a less brave Petain.

jsatz.bsky.social•1 day ago

The issue is that there are a few senators who seem to be voting for cloture who are not running for re-election. They have no concern about facing an angry primary. The two NY senators, and Fetterman, along with those who are not running for re-election, is enough for Republicans.

nabbp.bsky.social•1 day ago

My level of anger is so high it’s hard to put a number to it. I have called EVERY DEM Senator for the past 3 days trying to convey the angst in my family/friend circle. Hours of calling daily & so did many, many others. They’re not listening to our pain. They’ve forgotten who they work for.

cailis.bsky.social•1 day ago

THIS^^^
calling/writing/engaging and trying to get ANY response (none) daily has become my new part time job every fkn day
only to have schumer pull this garbage -arghh!

danielwbrody.bsky.social•1 day ago

A complete lack of political instincts on Schumer’s part, on par with Newsom interviewing Trumpers with softballs. Are they even following what’s going on? They just seem out of touch, like they are in a bubble.

cjnowak.bsky.social•1 day ago

Yeah - these establishment Dems are really showing their true colors under this new fascist light. They just liked playing their petty little Red vs. Blue game in DC and getting media attention every now and again. They're in it for the comfort and the prestige, nothing more.

stacylymb.bsky.social•1 day ago

Betrayal. The word is betrayal!

kate411.bsky.social•1 day ago

RICHTER SCALE ANGRY

profusional.bsky.social•1 day ago

Now that he is shown his stance if it should fail, he really should be removed as minority speaker

nm50.bsky.social•1 day ago

Did his speech just back them all into the corner? Was that intentional?

cathygellis.bsky.social•1 day ago

What time is the vote?

deb-brinker.bsky.social•1 day ago

Schumer’s DC office not taking vm

carolnorris.bsky.social•1 day ago

I left a VM at the DC office this morning. Must've gotten full.

tulliuscicero43.bsky.social•1 day ago

If you're a constituent, try his in-state offices. If you're not but you have Dem senators, call their offices and urge them to pressure leadership about this.

nonrev321.bsky.social•1 day ago

Heres where we learn from the Republican TeaParty. They started by taking over the GOP at local level, which is actually pretty easy to do. Than they worked their way up.

I'm more convinced than ever that unless we get new & better Democrats the authoritarian right will be with us for a long time

chief1970p.bsky.social•1 day ago

Either way, thank you very much for the coverage, Josh. We really all appreciate you keeping on it as your #1 story lately.

dougom.bsky.social•1 day ago

Judenrat.

seekingjustice.bsky.social•1 day ago

Well when you refuse to take messages after hours you can pretty much turn off what you don’t want to hear

veritasenumbra.bsky.social•1 day ago

He better hope that he changes that the Senate Dems at least unify on this. There's no shot that I'll ever vote Democrat again and I've been a staunch 'always blue'. There's zero fucking shot that you can square away a vote for this, and if he has a reason, then he should give it.

We're waiting.

suzuspetals.bsky.social•1 day ago

Can you speak to what Schumer said on Chris Hayes tonight? Under a shutdown the executive has the power to shutdown LEGALLY any agencies he wants. He’s doing that now but it’s illegal and we have the courts. And to end it, the R’s would have to pass a bill. Would they? And Trump would have to sign.

infinitemadness.bsky.social•1 day ago

This is the reason I switched to unafilliated! DEMS DONT FIGHT! They always cave. Shit!!!🤬

icedbrew2.bsky.social•1 day ago

Whether he runs again or not, he’s just keeping that seat warm for AOC if he does this.

lovewinzalways.bsky.social•1 day ago

https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:qcgffcbjnpgmz3jzomrhogsz/post/3lkc6xygbg22u

maryjoanhawkins.bsky.social•1 day ago

Does not run until 2008.

smlrun.bsky.social•1 day ago

call for him to resign he doesn’t deserve to be leader @schumer.senate.gov @senatedemocrats.bsky.social weak pathos party

repetitiveuser.bsky.social•1 day ago

Real Pontius Pilate shit

frankgindc.bsky.social•1 day ago

Also, let’s not forget he put Dems into this spot bc he miscalculated the House GOP’s ability to pass their crap CR. He ended up standing there like a putz with no alternative. Is this the ‘institutional knowledge’ he brings to the table to make up for all else that he lacks? Not a good deal.

hoptimusprime.bsky.social•1 day ago

I think AOC is *furious*, I think she might announce that she’s primarying him tonight, and if I were Schumer I would not like those odds.

hoptimusprime.bsky.social•1 day ago

No one wants to be the next Joe Lieberman, leaving the senate in disgrace and as a pariah to his own party.

ithacan.bsky.social•1 day ago

He's not up again until 2028. Why would she settle with Senator in 2028?

mitchellepner.bsky.social•1 day ago

This is about skill/toughness as Minority Leader, not their underlying ideas.

Mitch McConnell = Genco
Chuck Schumer = Tom Hagen (not a wartime consigliere).

ashmcgonigal.com•1 day ago

Schumer's to Democrats what Trump is to Americans: Too inept to say for sure he's an enemy agent, but without a counter example on which to hang an argument against the theory.

geauxblue.bsky.social•1 day ago

Well, I know how to respond to Chuck’s next fundraising request.

projectazar.com•1 day ago

The only play (and its a dumb one) that I can think of is Schumer saying, "I've got the votes, but you give me this right now, or you don't get the votes." And that doesn't even seem to be the play he's making.

Just complete captiulation.

queenofcroissant.bsky.social•1 day ago

Dems mute their power in the majority and minority. Always in fear of GOP messaging, yet they do no messaging of their own. So frustrating.

ahp-bb.bsky.social•1 day ago

I don't understand this weakness-Dems giving away their power. Perhaps they want the country to suffer so we'll vote for Dems in '26, but their weakness is disgusting and I will NEVER forget this & I'm a moderate.

mattandzachsmom.bsky.social•1 day ago

Nor will I.

coelomate.bsky.social•1 day ago

MAKE SOME NOISE

plannedtheride.bsky.social•1 day ago

please🤞please🤞please🙏

lbluth.bsky.social•1 day ago

My dog Huckleberry upon hearing we are making even more calls.

mswal2846.bsky.social•1 day ago

Senator Schumer needs to grow a backbone and LEAD! This is when this MUST happen! If he can't, he needs to step down!

johnnowicki.bsky.social•1 day ago

I just spoke to both @murray.senate.gov and office with the message we should all be sending. If @schumer.senate.gov does this betrayal tomorrow, and they do not immediately and publicly call for his resignation as caucus leader I will view itas THEY voted yes. The sheer cynicism of this scam.

johnnowicki.bsky.social•1 day ago

Same with @cantwell.senate.gov

flgatordon.bsky.social•1 day ago

Play devil's advocate, what power does Trump gain in a shutdown? Honest question, genuinely curious. Is there even a possibility it would be worse to shut down?

justvisiting74.bsky.social•1 day ago

There should be protestors on the streets and in front of the Capital with umbrellas.

dsandahl.bsky.social•1 day ago

Hard to see how Schumer & co expect us to keep working for them when they pull stunts like this.

Don't deceive the base. Democratic turnout is bad enough already.

sarahmerch.bsky.social•1 day ago

Pressure where and how after hours though?

jjarchitect.bsky.social•1 day ago

I called.

chordtone.bsky.social•1 day ago

In the meantime, Fuck this asshole!

djstealth.bsky.social•1 day ago

Just called Schatz and Hirono again and demanded they vote against cloture.
Why are the Dems so goddamn weak? I hate being stuck with them!

himham.bsky.social•1 day ago

Show them that you're not weak like them. In person, loudly.

Each office has its own phone and fax number.

cgrossman.bsky.social•1 day ago

It was over as soon as it reached the Senate and the Senate Dems need to "debate". Although it was a tough call because a NO vote had risks; it was an easy call because a YES vote was certain destruction and suicide.

Chris Hayes thinks this will be forgotten. It won't.

jamiejohns.bsky.social•1 day ago

Unless I missed something, Chris Hayes was saying Dems shouldn't fear shutting down the government because that wouldn't be remembered a year from now. I would expect cowardly voting to avoid a shutdown will be remembered!

cgrossman.bsky.social•1 day ago

Yes, that was the context, but I took it more generally. In any case, we agree - this cowardly vote will be remembered and all Democrats will suffer.

epicmorgana32.bsky.social•1 day ago

are u serious? iv called like 12 times to his office. im failing to see the point

kinneyaaron.bsky.social•1 day ago

Josh, what do you make of what Gillibrand appears to have been claiming, that a shutdown would prompt Trump to declare a national emergency and accelerate the coup?

dfourny.bsky.social•1 day ago

Could you publish again the probable NO votes to help ppl know who to call/email? Thnx

ncpots.bsky.social•1 day ago

From Jess Craven:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/0/d/1kF9_E5GqOROqaMgynsPSnnUJop7X6kh0mj4hxsbuJKI/htmlview#gid=0

qlm326.bsky.social•1 day ago

Schumer has to go. Voting yes on cloture is like voting yes on the bill. So Schumer and company are giving Trump and Musk all the power they want.

simianinsight.bsky.social•1 day ago

I think he secretly hates his Democrat base

jpinson.bsky.social•1 day ago

He openly hates his base.

forskinebowles.bsky.social•1 day ago

Secretly? What fucking planet do you live on.

He relishes in doing it to our faces.

simianinsight.bsky.social•1 day ago

Well, yeah

hankhoffmanct.bsky.social•1 day ago

And then we have our CT senator @chrismurphyct.bsky.social who's made a big show of being an authentic oppositionist to the Trump/Musk coup. I believed it! But I called his state & DC offices every day this week to find out where he stands & got nothing. When the chips were down he was in hiding.

qlm326.bsky.social•1 day ago

Another of Josh’s posts says Murphy and Blumenthal are no/no.

gluft3.bsky.social•1 day ago

No means no

hankhoffmanct.bsky.social•1 day ago

It's too late. Murphy had ALL WEEK to get out in front, make the argument that they couldn't give up their leverage, that they needed to fight, that it would amount to capitulation to do—what they're going to do. All week to lead but he hid instead. Unforgiveable, as far as I'm concerned.

carolnorris.bsky.social•1 day ago

I believed it, too. Really liking him. Still holding out hope, maybe foolishly, but I'll wait to see his vote.

rocinatereturns.bsky.social•1 day ago

Name and shame then remove

heatherthomasaf.bsky.social•1 day ago

😭 You're always right. That said, we need to impeach.

biltongbaggins.bsky.social•1 day ago

Until midterms, everything is a stalemate outside the courts.

It’s a right mess.

hallucinati.bsky.social•1 day ago

Just a thought experiment, how bad would things have to get where Rs would get onboard with this?

biltongbaggins.bsky.social•1 day ago

That’s a question for the ages, just hope we all live long enough to find out.

We saw McCain stand up, later Cheney and Kinzinger after January 6th, we know there are still lines to be crossed.

The question becomes, will it be in time.

katia0415.bsky.social•1 day ago

I hope if this goes through he’s overthrown as Minority Leader. I’ve never seen such fury from Dems at him. He treats us like we’re stupid just so he can betray democracy. Out. The. Door. And don’t come back!

vmcf.bsky.social•1 day ago

I hope it doesn’t go through bc the rest of the senate rebels against him, and then they overthrow him. Seeing how mad House Dems are gives me hope that they can help senators find their backbone.

hndrcks.bsky.social•1 day ago

It is frustrating in these situations: does the leadership know of some secret legal parliamentary threat that will kill us in our beds? Or is this filibuster shit so hard and they just can't be bothered

oggreeb.bsky.social•1 day ago

You need to address the issue of whether shutting down the government gives more or less leverage to the wilding Trump/Musk destroyers. I'm of the opinion that a death of a thousand cuts is just as dead as pulling the plug now, and more destructive in the long run. But you have to convince the D's.

mikenp40.bsky.social•1 day ago

The CR gives Musk/Trump authority to appropriate funds which will shut down all the lawsuits that the Unions are currently winning. He's not only made Trump a king he's effectively stopped any legal opposition.

silverporpoise.bsky.social•1 day ago

I expect that Trump will use a 'disagreement' over adjournment by the House and Senate (fomented by the GOP) to invoke Article II, Section 3 for the first time and force Congress closed until a date he decides. We won't have a Democratic Republic because too many Senate Dems are quislings.

dinorocket.bsky.social•1 day ago

I want to know what @schumer.senate.gov thinks he's going to get for selling out the country...

because he ain't getting it. Trump has never honored a deal when he's already gotten what he wanted.

simianinsight.bsky.social•1 day ago

@chuckschumer.com
@schumer.senate.gov

DON'T LET US DOWN!
DON'T FOLD TO MAGA!
NO ON CLOTURE!
NO ON CLOTURE!
NO ON CLOTURE!
NO ON CLOTURE!

redshift42.bsky.social•1 day ago

You gotta call (if you're a New Yorker), @'ing them here counts for nothing.

simianinsight.bsky.social•1 day ago

His voicemail is completely off after hours. So this might be the only only way to get through before tomorrow AM

simianinsight.bsky.social•1 day ago

I called. Got voicemail.

redshift42.bsky.social•1 day ago

Thank you!

tidalenergy.bsky.social•1 day ago

Chuck has all his phones turned off.

missyandtillycorgi.bsky.social•1 day ago

They are making you state which state your from when you call if you say Schumer it will just send you to an AI asking for your zipcode.

nmcarlito.bsky.social•1 day ago

#vichychuck

jhr25.bsky.social•1 day ago

His nyc office message talks about being closed for the holidays. Two freaking months ago. F Schumer

genkidesuu.bsky.social•1 day ago

As @scooptown.bsky.social has detailed, based on the constitution, he is officially a seditious co-conspirator if he allows this to go through.

soffeeez.bsky.social•18 hours ago

I strongly disagree, Schumer's actions are not a guarantee of passage and the bill's fate is still uncertain, opposition is still strong.

roncampbell.bsky.social•1 day ago

The Democrats are not an opposition party. They long ago forgot how to be an opposition party if indeed they ever knew how. They will yell as Trump and Musk demolish the achievements of the past 50 years, but they will do nothing to stop the destruction.

spacejamveteran.bsky.social•1 day ago

Man, you were right, and the people who attacked you for no reason should be ashamed of themselves

jim0novak.bsky.social•1 day ago

The proper message from voters:

“I will note vote for any Democrat, or contribute to any Democrat’s campaign so long as Schumer is Minority Leader. Schumer must resign.”

oldgraycrow.bsky.social•1 day ago

📌

no2sin.bsky.social•1 day ago

Except that's very obviously not true at any scale that matters. Only a tiny minority of voters are following this that closely & of those, 99.99% will get to the voting booth, have 2 options - a MAGA cultist who supports Trump 100% & a Dem, who in many cases actually opposed the CR & vote for the D

no2sin.bsky.social•1 day ago

Threats mostly don't work anyway (they very often prompt the opposite reaction), but for them to work they most be credible, must involve a hostage that the threat-maker would very obviously be fine with shooting, and must be proportional. This doesn't meet any of those criteria.

no2sin.bsky.social•1 day ago

A better threat (or response) is to find credible primary challengers for the Democrats who voted for cloture on the CR.

kavesq.bsky.social•20 hours ago

Shut it down. Stop paying ICE agents to kidnap our neighbors!!!

kavesq.bsky.social•20 hours ago

Time for the democrats to support the people and not their careers.

AOC challenge Schumer now!

walkinggirl8.bsky.social•1 day ago

Schumer has to go as does anyone else who caves. This is a battle and we need people who aren’t afraid to get in the fight. I am disgusted.

eggbuttsnaffflebit.bsky.social•1 day ago

Feckless, and foolish. I have never been as angry at Democratic leadership than now. Just un-effing believable.

sueunderh.bsky.social•1 day ago

So, we are left with just the federal courts now. And the Supreme Court will bend over backwards to rule in favor of Trump. The Dems are timid and cowardly. This is how a democracy slides into authoritarianism.

rebeccaamccoy.bsky.social•1 day ago

Keep calling senators. Keep calling. We need public pressure on them. NO ON CLOTURE!!!!

jetstre.bsky.social•1 day ago

I think we need to pressure the no on cloture people to overthrow him as minority leader.

repetitiveuser.bsky.social•1 day ago

Fuuuuuuuuccckkk

crisburch.bsky.social•1 day ago

And people don't even know Durbin would take Schumer's spot in the Senate. We need to be focused on keeping our earned benefits like SSI/disability/SSI retirement and expand social security and Medicare.

tulliuscicero43.bsky.social•1 day ago

📌

cgrossman.bsky.social•1 day ago

At this point Schumer is screwed no matter what he does. If you're right and there's still a chance, then it's a matter of who he's more afraid of - Trump or Dem voters. His cowardice is showing and he'll never recover.

johnbud.bsky.social•1 day ago

Josh, in this emergency constitutional situation, we need a way to know which of our elected Dems are truly committed to the rule of law, which are careerists. Keep the job by “performing” like a good democrat. Lots of repub careerists - look at Rubio now.

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