Let's zoom in on the "not too much time" here. Does anyone know how long it takes to set up a manufacturing plant? Not just the physical building but the supply chains? hiring? "not much time". Since the time can't be much less than 3 yrs at the absolute minimum ...
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If I was in charge of such things, I'd stay as far away from trump's America as was humanly possible.
Who would willingly deal with such instability and chaos?!?
Then we elected an amoral felon for President.
The leading CNC machines come from Japan, Germany and Taiwan and are now going to cost 20-30% more, that alone killing reshoring projects before they even get off the ground.
We are 80% service with the 2nd highest PPP in the world.
We’re BUYERS not sellers. We’re supposed to have a deficit.
And what office worker will go work in a factory?
You sure about that?
https://bsky.app/profile/chrismurphyct.bsky.social/post/3lluxkmx7wc2m
"20 years of schooling and they put you on the day shift" as Dylan once wrote
These tariffs will greatly reduce our capital surplus.
The USA will have much less investment over the next few years.
Preplanning
Site acq
Program
Design
Construction
FFE
Commissioning
Turnover
With discipline, smooth regulatory approvals & overlapping phases- maybe 7yrs. Longer if there is disagreement during any phase.
The deep insanity of all of this is if companies spend more money to build factories only to have them empty in 5 years when tariffs fall and foreign competition drives down prices. Insane uncertainty.
This becomes stupider by the minute. They won’t build the factories that they won’t be able to fill with workers. Have they not thought this through at all? Oh right, they haven’t.
https://fortune.com/2024/06/09/chips-act-talent-workforce-shortage-tsmc-semiconductor-manufacturing-fabs-intel/
Let's look at a worst case example (worse as in least amount of knowledge and technical difficulty): The Manhattan Project.
If we wanted to rebuild the River Rouge plant taking iron ore in one end and shuffling Ford sedans out the other ASAP, I'd say 2031.
Auto factories are laying off already starting Monday. Trump has lost before he has begun.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-02/china-restricts-companies-from-investing-in-us-as-tensions-rise
Handsome Eric Trump is calling on nations to negotiate out of tariffs. How does that support new US factories?
. . .
My general rule of thumb is that unless an investor can reasonably assume that a favorable situation will endure long enough to fully depreciate his investment, he won't invest.
Meanwhile... slow homicide.
It wouldn’t even be “shooting the moon” for them because they don’t risk individual catastrophe if they fail to create the national (economic and social) fire sale conditions they are aiming for.
So the whole thing needs to be up and running, *and keep running long enough to pay for itself* all before the artificial economics of the tariff regime are withdrawn.
Which could be whenever.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dsx2vdn7gpY
Unless they let you dump your trash in a ditch, you've got the waste problem.
You couldn't get much more than tiny bespoke production going quickly, severely limited by capacity in the current finance environment.
Looked at setting up US lines for years now for consumer goods. There is very limited market opportunities where it works.
Quickest manufacturing renaissance is Chinese buying up cratered economy real estate pricing and owning factories here, lol.
There is minimal apparel production in the US anymore. Not large scale. Most clothes are imports. Labor costs are too high here, people don't want to sew all day. The fabric mills are gone. Limited infrastructure.
Hobby sewing is very different than putting sleeves or zippers in all day.
I'm guessing it would take US companies that long just to close the real estate deal.
As for hiring, Vietnamese factory workers average ~$2,800 US per year. So that part might take a while.
Trump is banking on some stuff moving back to the US, which he will then help by dropping tariffs on that particular company
Course, it will take time, but "Xerox building new plant in Michigan" will be an instant win for him, even if it take years
Especially as - having gutted & offshored manufacturing over the last few decades - we don’t have a lot of expert custom-machine designers, builders & installers just, ya know, lying around.😒
Trade enabled the start of the C21st.
Earmark funding, find site/s, compare incentives offered to build, obtain site, planning/design stage, actual construction of building, equipment acquisition & installation, hiring & training, limited production on 1 shift at first with slow multi-year ramp-up.
Yes, I do. 3-4 years. Absolute minimum, as you said.
And another 3-4 years to bring a be product to market.
He has no idea of business but grift. Actual businesses including supply chain for finished products are not done overnight.
There's a new Pratt & Whitney jet engine factory in my city and if it was less than five years from proposal to product out the door, I'd be shocked. They had to build a bridge to it and who knows what else.
Who the hell in an office or working from home is going to work in a factory?
It will take a generation at least.
The lead time to just replace a small ~$40k piece of equipment in an operating production line is usually in the range of ~1 year.
Also, his stupidity is breathtaking.
Would you mind giving an example?
PS I appreciate your knowledge.
Trump just ordered the new factories producing renewable energy components be shut down.
Like this infrastructure (plants, land, etc) to even manufacturer here again is just gone having been pillaged in the 90s and early 2000s by private capital. 😑
But the cover story - restoring American manufacturing - would take at least a decade and even then would result in higher prices and lower wages. It’s not workable in any way
Jan 20 2025 Trump declares Economic emergency
Now with the extra power, and Rs in Congress playing dead, Trump is going to fuck up the world economy.
Trump says Venezuela is at war with us but yet they are exempt from tariffs, like Russia
We are fucked!
Is there a build able plot of land available? Can a workforce be recruited and trained? Is there an incentive package from the state? So many factors.
Who knows.
If I’m a factory owner, I’m waiting this out.
Too bad that Trump and The Tea Party MAGA Republicans will take credit for them.
Of course, Trump might just block them as well.
Dismantling the Department of Education works against that.
https://briandbuckley.com/2012/09/12/who-knows-how-to-make-a-mouse/
*This is an understatement, it was abject chaos with COVID supply chain issues and I would expect worse now
These people are just so dumb .
By the time the factory is operational, he may have rescinded the tariffs on a whim, or be on the verge of leaving office, which will likely be the end of the tariffs.