OK, non-finance people: crash course in bonds. Bond prices and yields moving opposite directions. Yields on US govt bonds [“treasuries”] are surging (ie the prices are falling). Prices are falling because people are selling treasuries at a massive clip.
Reposted from
Sky Marchini
I am actually scared now
Comments
He's breaking everything.
With outside chance being china's currency.
"Ultimately you get yourself into a place where people don't want to do business with you," Sherman said. "It takes a long time to build up positive sentiment, just like a relationship and trust, but you can destroy it very quickly."
I hear you can pick up Melaniabucks or whatever they’re called pretty cheap…
I'm just a rando so smarter folks, please weigh in
but there’s only one bitcoin. In a crisis it will be a safe harbour over a few years.
DJIA is down 16%
S&P 500 is down 19%
NASDAQ is down 24%
It is literally the worst performer this year.
DJIA: - 11.2%
S&P 500: - 15.09%
BTC: - 19.38%
NASDAQ: - 20.81%
So by at least one metric there is one exchange that averages slightly worse than Bitcoin.
Russia is the R in that aren’t they?
Russias been celebrating on state TV.
yields were falling because those in the know [as of Friday] were selling bonds, buying US equities
https://bsky.app/profile/tw33tzr4kidz.bsky.social/post/3lmg4af4qak22
I’m guessing Trump’s insane moves have investors thinking “what other crazy sh*t is this guy going to do & is he going to default on US Treasuries?”
Clearly the sensible thing to do is what Monty Python recommended:
“Run away! Run away!”
.Just flat out refusing to pay .
Aka what happens when you refuse to pay any bills. Your credit drops like a rock, and people avoid doing deals where the backer is your wallet.
https://bsky.app/profile/nathantankus.bsky.social/post/3lme5zvqmuc2i
https://bsky.app/profile/wasnu.bsky.social/post/3lmdbqj5x3c2k
If you were going to lend $$ would you feel the risk was worth dropping your interest rate?
If the ans to the first Q is no then the ans to the 2nd Q is…
The yield is the "guaranteed" return, and it signals risk vs demand
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/19/stock-market-today-live-updates.html
The United States has never defaulted on its debt, ever. Treasuries were seen as a “safe” investment.
Rising yields means people think there’s more risk now; bonds could become worthless if/when the Trump regime decides to default on US debt.
Yes: the end of usa as an economic superpower.
No: The money is just changing where it will go to. The usa will soon become like Russia.
I kinda suspect a global recession, as the world pivots away from the US as the economic center.
I think it’s entirely possible it’s a depression for the US
I don't want to be a downer, but if there isn't an extreme intervention, very soon, I don't know how the global economy continues to exist.
Also to folks replies which answered further questions.
Much appreciated.
between
-equity positions in a manipulated market
-interest rate risk when facing possible stagflation
-and forex during this trade insanity?
this is fucked
Me: [thinking] “No, that’s not why I came here today.”
Him: “You ready to get F*CKED IN THE ASS??!”
Me: [thinking] “No, that’s DEFINITELY not what I came here for!”
Another bond / currency takes over (looks at the Euro).
They’re selling when they should be buying
That and there's probably some margin call concerns going on for tomorrow now that tariffs have hit good and hard
ah
And then we all die.
How long UST can defend THE dollar is to be seen...
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/EURUSD/
Euro is probably #1 though, especially because Germany just signalled a willingness to borrow money (sell lots of bonds to finance a defense-spending deficit).
There’s no place to hide (other than cash - real cash not Bitcoin)
And no one trusts fdic to be on place.
I’m not sure if that’s bonds? I think so? But anyway USA is a bad place to have money right now
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/sudden-selloff-shakes-us-bond-095659046.html
https://www.ft.com/content/1df217c4-2732-41d5-89a2-9f51fbd45e7e
I'm sure the wife's stuff is all hit (always does) but mine just keeps chugging along.
If I did something right for once, is this an opportunity to do something smart? Or I'm next?
Step 2. Bond market crash. Loss of faith in the future of America.
Step 3. Money market crash. End of USD as reserve currency. The world moves on.
If drastic steps aren't taken to address steps 1&2 expect step 3 to come around the G7 meeting.
It’s inaccurate and only still used on TV and Media because people became familiar with it.
‘Global North’ and ‘Global South’ are now the correct terminology.
Swiss franc?
Best advice I have (I am not a professional) is slow and steady dollar cost averaging.
In light of the tariffs, hovering philosophical rhinoceros. ("heliphino")
Which also means watch for falling theoretical poop piles.