When the bubble pops, and it will, you’re not just looking at a few Johnny-come-lately companies shuttering. This is a load-bearing delusion. The entire tech industry is fucked because they all bought in, every VC firm bought in, investors have everything in it. They need to make you like it.
Reposted from
Stella Sacco
Look: The thing you need to understand about genAI is that every Next Big SV Thing of the last 15 years—NFTs, Web3, Metaverse, VR—has been utterly rejected by the market and the tech grifters know this is their last chance, no more. That’s why there is an apocalyptic level of capital invested in it.
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They desperately need to both distract from this, and find something, anything, that can buy their way out of it.
but then who's the customer base?
We might have to actually raise *their* taxes to fund Universal Basic Income for all the redundant humans
“They’ve got to! It’s for the Syndicate!”
It’ll fail. Nobody even has any money to make it float. Nobody cares about it to make it something to make public even.
Okay.
Outside the biggest players in the US there isn't actually that much overleveraging of the tech industry into GenAI. Most tech firms have been watching, maybe toying with it, but not investing significant amounts in it
Doesn't matter that smaller firms didn't completely buy in. This bubble popping is gonna cause a cascade.
A bunch of other bubbles in a bunch of countries are gonna pop too.
I agree the American investment situation is going to be a real mess when the GenAI bubble bursts.
The global tech sector though? Far less all-in.
I don’t get why tech cos are obsessed with throwing out things that work while chasing what’s new…
https://9to5mac.com/2024/12/16/most-iphone-owners-see-little-to-no-value-in-apple-intelligence-so-far/
As one of those users I’ve simply realized I don’t need anything to summarize my iMessages
Sorry to wake you though, I can tell you value your sleep
But if they can make something worse, they will.
Never touched genAI tools, never will.
30 minutes later, after continuing to do my own research and work, I discovered the answer it had given me, confidently, was incorrect
I'll ask hyper specific questions on understanding fairly niche material. Or I'll ask it a question with a 'wrong' fact it. Literal ask it a question that source never asked, used words they never did.
Not surprised to hear that at all.
I've seen AI answers so stunningly out of context that I can't explain it. I just can't.
Wood glue on pizza anyone?
Agreed that this this is a misstep on the UK Government's part. It will not age well.
Before COVID, I read that they lose money 75% of the time. That's not a sustainable business model in ANY field.
If 9 collapse, but your stake in the 10th grows to be $11m, you wind up ahead.
That's the basic logic of the VC sector.
But it's not enough for it to just break even or grow 10%. It must be a multiple to work.
And the early days of mobile apps created plenty of those?
But if none of the 10 achieve rapid, exponential growth?
The whole house of cards collapses.
It's basically a glorified pyramid scheme. 💔
Buying Hardware, Training simple language models and then...?
It is barely believable how much money is burned away...
Here's your mute. Bye forever!
It has been completely surreal, sitting in rooms with these enthusiasts, asking where the user value is and being told “it’s cutting-edge!” That is not value.
They’re convincing each other that while early adopters will do it because it’s cool, the inherent genius of [tech doohickey] will later filter down to the plebs who will adopt through exposure.
The “why” remains elusive.
And they're assuming the doohickey catches on, of course.
It has so many edges that cut you. It's a really dangerous car.
And then I’d get pulled off the project.
I think it should be an automatic retort anytime someone accuses us of being, "woke."
Crypto might fall at the same time, and if Trump gets us all tangled up in that it’s gonna be 1929
When (not if) crypto collapses, we need to make sure there is no government bailout.
Their entire business model is how their fake currencies are superior to the US dollar. There would no be logic to abusing the US dollar to prop up entities whose goal is to destroy the dollar itself.
Unfortunately a bunch of dummies just elected Trump, and he’s already been bought by the crypto chodes
It also would require a programmer who is both REALLY good at machine learning, & REALLY good at writing & distilling complex concepts into simple words.
Those 2 skill sets are rarely found in the same PERSON, much...
It takes a lot of work to do it accurately, & do it well.
It takes a level of abstraction that, based on what I know about machine learning (& I'm married to a programmer) AI isn't capable of doing.
The other was a preacher.
It was fascinating to grow up watching their minds work, as they forged their separate arguments.
If a machine is ever able to analyze language like this, distilling law or theology or whatever, into manageable chunks for laypeople
the mere thought of being able to replace humans with AI is so mouthwatering to capital, it'll be pursued and pushed through no matter how much quality suffers. customer support is already gone.
Can't think of a better phrase for it.
I saw it on Patrick Boyle's post on YouTube
My god.
Hey, @pluralistic.net.web.brid.gy! I think this phrase needs to enter the lexicon.
Big reason the broligarchy cozying up to the trump White House.
I wish I shared it.
Interesting times!
Most people don't care and don't see beyond their own front yard. Not even country.
Until it hits them, happens to them it's just not real. Will never be real.
Wish it was the opposite.
I want to see a world where my logistics training is used to repair, restore and enhance our world's environment, not just extract from it.
Really does look like we need the shock to wake people up to said fact.
If it finally doesn't work out, they are creating their own private spaces of security and acumulating power to dominate the rest. However, when CC blows up, economy will be no more a thing
Infrastructure investments take time to pay off and heavy upfront physical investment.
Hype-fueled vaporware is a lot easier to sell to VCs than tangible goods.
Unfortunately for people like me? This bubble goes and there goes so much game funding too.
This year, when it happens, will suck for multiple industries.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/jan/12/mainlined-into-uks-veins-labour-announces-huge-public-rollout-of-ai
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/jan/12/mainlined-into-uks-veins-labour-announces-huge-public-rollout-of-ai
Also $0.75Tn of that bubble NVIDIA, who we do actually need to keep making chips because everyone from weather forecasters to 3d animators and video editors need those CUDA TFLOPS to actually do work.
Is the term "AI" being slapped on a bunch of older, useful machine learning projects? YES.
Is there some secret version of AI being used or marketed for internal uses that isn't a joke? Maybe, but more likely it's a "fake it till we make it".
You mean you don’t need AI to turn on the lights when it’s dark out and you can just buy a bulb with a sensor?
Curious.
A lot of mindless hype basically
So it must be true.
I'm trading in all of my oldish technology for anything but AI powered simplicity.
2001, 2007, 1929, it's all the same shell game.
"Well that's a 4th quarter problem, we'll drop a bomb on that bridge when we get to it. Right now my biggest problem is trying to figure out what to do with all of this money!"
it doesn't matter that nobody wants AI, because investors are putting money into it.
And it seems not to matter that the money never turns into anything long term, these are short term guys
Maybe they'll run Superbowl ads.
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/02/ads-2000-dot-com-super-bowl.html
I didn't know they did that before the dot-com bust.
I saw the Matt Damon crypto ad, & was like, "These guys need an infusion of cash, & paid millions to scam average people into giving it."
This stupid country.
last resort is the US government