wonder if these tariffs are going to lead to a big rise in smuggling. it'd be a huge pain in the ass to enforce even without DOGE criminals firing half the federal workforce
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the underground market will boom - its the only way a lot of people will survive - not sure much across the borders Canada and Mexico really don't want that to rear its ugly head. But money talks. I could see boats bringing stuff in.
Ah, yes, here in northern WA it will be a return to the days of putting airplane engines on your boat to fire across the Juan de Fuca straight before the feds can catch up to you. Only instead of Chinese laborers and hooch, we'll be bringing in video game consoles and eggs.
Heck, the reward/risk in simply mis-labeling stuff will be enormous; put a couple million bucks worth of Switches in a container and claim they're a bunch of low-end battery packs or whatever, and if they catch you you just claim it was a paperwork error
maybe not exactly smuggling, but one can imagine China sending goods first to a low tariff country, and from there into the U.S. to get around a bulk of the tariffs.
A smart person would import from a 10% tarrif country. A smarter person would ensure the item comes from a country that has the same power plug and voltage...see chart
I work in an investigative capacity in Canada in the private sector. Yes, it's going to be a huge thing. I've already heard from people up here who play in grey markets, trying to figure out what the high value, easily-transported items are going to be, and how to get them into the USA.
Yeah, but if you do that, they're harder to sell at scale. Individuals will buy those, but distributors won't trust them and don't want to test hundreds of cartridges.
Ya, it is going to be raw materials, and parts/components, not finished products at the consumer level as much. Don't think Costco, Target, Walmart, etc, are going to have shelves of smuggled items. But those items may have smuggled materials in them.
Yup. There'll be a market for consumers too, but a lot of that'll be online and will largely be shipping over the borders while bribing/avoiding customs.
If you're going to drive trucks down a logging road and across the border, you want something you can hand off to one buyer and head back.
What about the de minimis loophole that exists for bringing small quantities? I could see that ramping up unless it is gotten rid of, which causes its own problems, especially when the government is on a firing spree.
I think folks miss the positive global health impact of the tariffs and making the US an economic pariah. Now the viruses we’ll incubate in our deregulated wonderland will stay right here.
An economist told me yesterday that even for people and businesses who don't smuggle, wait times at borders are going to go way up because it will take longer for CBP officers to check for goods subject to the new tariffs.
also the mass firings and Trump's attack on all public sector unions is going to seriously dent morale. be a lot easier to bribe a severely disgruntled inspector who thinks the tariffs are dumb as shit
Hey, but conveniently there will be a lot of former Federal employees available to work, especially in DC but all around the country, and it's not like the Private Sector will have any money left to hire them! Win-win!
I knew a punk with an outstanding criminal record and when his band had a show across the border they found a desolate stretch of forest, gave him a heat blanket, and he got stoned and hopped like a deer to a desolate stretch on the other side
My family's company is 100% sure our main competitor is illegally bypassing the tariffs. We've reported them repeatedly, but we're not holding our breath that anything will come of it.
Like...they're claiming an industrial bulk material is being shipped from a god damn apartment building in a country where we know for a fact that it is not produced.
thats part of all this. ppl like Silk Road guy get pardoned, immigration enforcement was turned towards performative racist & political targeting, the Trump people are brazenly corrupt. they want to be the overseers of a criminal empire, everybody just has to pay them to do whatever they want.
Just means hiring booms for ICE. Now with signing bonuses. Just like the German SS in 1933. Tell people to read about their pre-war history. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schutzstaffel
Now, after all this time we must be believe a person whose business acumen is deny everything and inflate everything, ( like Enron) is going to “Make America Great,” Bullshit.
So we are to believe that for maybe 7 to 8 decades the U S has been in a National Financial Emergency, (even Reagan did not know), and supposedly in 2016 to 2017 we had the greatest economy and people are still prospering, coming here. See next
Possible. I think more likely is just customs fraud. Especially with CBP being so heavily moved to interior enforcement, who's gonna have time to do an investigation on the real value of the coffee claimed at $0.50/lb.
Stopping that *checks notes* 0.74 lbs of fentanyl from Canada wouldn't really require border delays. That's like 1 ziploc bag. No need to even search when so little is coming across.
(US regime claim 43 lbs last year, which also would've been a small amount)
Didn't I just read that Trump told some forum that Canadian Fentanyl smuggled into the USA would cost more BECAUSE of the tariffs? You'd think someone as dodgy as Trump would understand black markets. Then again 'understanding' is beside the point with Trump.
So are places like DRC, Venezuela and Norway poised to become intermediaries (since they have the lowest tarrifs in Africa, S. America and Europe, respectively) by importing goods from other countries and then selling them to America?
Tariffs are based on country of origin, so transshipping through a lower-tariff country wouldn't necessarily help (unless the transshipper lies about country of origin, which will definitely happen).
You raise a relevant point. Forget buying drugs on the dark web. We might end up with dark web sites where people can buy smuggled liquor, electronics, clothes, and other popular products to avoid artificially jacked up retail prices. Also - Costco is going to be lit.
Lots of easy smuggling opportunities by simply mislabeling shipping containers. Say that your goods are from a 10% tariff country instead of a 50% tariff country. Nobody is checking.
(This is why the chart claims there is a trade deficit with uninhabited islands btw...)
Unlikely. By the time good smuggling methods are established, President ADHD will have lost interest, declared victory, inside-traded any rebound and moved on to his next fake outrage.
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Just like Moscow in the eighties, only with food and clothing instead of coke.
It's, "How do I get ten truckloads of lumber over the slash?"
If you're going to drive trucks down a logging road and across the border, you want something you can hand off to one buyer and head back.
Like, getting busted with Switch 2s means illegal entry and tax evasion. You can kinda plea out.
Getting busted with fent? DAs and LEOs are going to want to bolster their career.
Not a rhetorical question I'm trying to make a spreadsheet.
More generally, it will be much easier now for adversary governments to recruit agents.
Drugs and illegal immigration? Yeah, you'll have public support.
Game consoles?
Not a chance in hell unless they start shooting.
the first time it was antihistamines that were OTC there and not here.
doo-dah, doo-dah
Canada's border's 6000 miles long
Oh doo-dah day
(US regime claim 43 lbs last year, which also would've been a small amount)
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-new-fentanyl-data-undercuts-white-houses-portrayal-of-canadas-role-in/
Imagine an O scale train in a Very long tunnel....
Now, build it across the border. (Sshhh!)
https://www.msn.com/en-us/politics/government/just-plain-dumb-trump-s-smuggled-fentanyl-tariff-mocked/ar-AA1CaaD8?ocid=BingNewsSerp
Finally my tea and chocolate hoarding problem pays off! Maybe I should start a little street hustle on the side…
Psssst I got extra dark, the real 80% deal 👀
anyone remember what happened when they tried to make alcohol illegal?
(This is why the chart claims there is a trade deficit with uninhabited islands btw...)
There really are two economies, one's about to dwarf the other.