the other thing is that the future is unknowable. there is nothing on the ground that is forcing us to doom and gloom. this is a tight race. it was always going to be a tight race. have faith that you’ll succeed!
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I think nothing has pointed to this actually being a tight race. I see it 52-47 with MVP Harris getting 319 EVs. We know, he admitted it in Rogan, that Trump has been paying for tilted polls. Harris wins
I also feel that if Nevada was a screwed as pundits are saying, you’d hear panic coming from the Culinary Union and other electeds and we haven’t heard any of that - yet. As a Nevadan, I remain optimistic.
I've formerly registered as a Republican (to piss in primary elections) and Independent, but I tell you what. Sinema cured me of that. I switched to Democratic reg so I have a chance at preventing the next Sinema.
I can't imagine being an Independent in this state. Not in this day and age.
I was registered for ten years as an independent because I was clinging to the idea of bipartisanship. And then I realized I hadn't voted for a Republican in a decade, so... 🤷♀️
The thought that we are THIS close to literally losing our country and that THIS many of our fellow Americans are working to see that happen or completely fine if it does, is actually enough to give one gloom. Electing Harris should be the BEGINNING of the fight, not the end.
And the completely spineless billionaires who refuse to stand up to him. Knowing that their billions make them basically immune to criminal prosecution, but not to Putin-style retribution.
This plus I also like to think about how the human race already has an established history of defeating monstrously murderous fascists after - oops - 1st enabling their rise to power.
I sincerely wish geopolitics didn't seem to be almost entirely about harm reduction at this point, but here we are.
I’m resting a little easier now with the early Marist voting results and Allan Lichtman saying she’ll win.
Also, I don’t think we will have a Florida 2000 like the one Allan got “wrong.” Kamala is more liked than Gore was. I remember both sides not liking either choice then.
Yeah, and let's not forget that Gore had anti-charismatic smarmbag Joe Lieberman as his VP nominee to distance himself from the extremely popular president he worked for and theoretically win over the oh-so-important prude demographic.
I think we’re all letting anxiety drive the doom cuz the anxiety is deep rn but it’s because it’s close, the stakes are so high, and we know like soon what the next 4 years is gonna look like.
It is so fucking refreshing seeing a post like this and then scrolling down expecting the worst before remembering I'm on bluesky and the blue check chuds aren't here
That fact that it’s a tight race should be depressing enough. It speaks to just how stupid this country is and stupidity is painful. Even for the non stupid. Especially for the non stupid. Cheers!
Not worried about winning .. worried about losing the win ..
Biden's failure to go after Insurrectionists in Congress and his failure to hold ALITO and THOMAS responsible for their crimes leaves it wide open for a Trump coup and steal..... somebody should wake Biden the fuck up to his goddamn duty!
Yeah, the fact that 45-48% of the population can hear Trump promise mass deportations, shrug their shoulders, and still vote for the guy is profoundly disturbing.
Part that, part I'm not sure they're even hearing it in the first place, or receiving the signals from opinion leaders and media sources to take it all seriously.
How do we even know they are? That is what we are being told. It could be that close, but I don’t trust any of the “expert pollsters.” We just have to vote, do what we can, and hope our country really isn’t this f$@&”! up.
My thought is it could come down to the ground game and the RNC gutted theirs. I also think polling underrepresents young women who will turn out in droves for Harris and maybe a lot of wife’s who won’t say « Harris » in a phone poll within earshot of their husbands
As a European looking in, that it’s a tight race is absolutely wild. He can barely string a sentence together,sounds like a back room jock, is as far from Presidential as possible, is a convicted felon, an adjudicated rapist and yet here we are 😳
We're all just haunted by the fact that polls have underestimated Trump in the past and they're about dead even right now. She'd have to up like 10 points before I could stop being nervous.
I’ll be honest. It’s easier for me to push doomerism with not as much at stake. It’s like asteroid 2016 bullshit. Having hope and the will to work is the much healthier approach for Americans.
But how and why is it tight? Why was it always going to be? So many of us can’t believe that and are really going through it. Given all the reality - how is this possible that it’s so close?
I honestly do. Maybe it’s delulu but I think the main thing making people freak is the polls. And the pollsters are making guesses that I just don’t think are warranted.
I keep suspecting they’re fighting the last battle over again (trying to find the hidden Trump support) and they’re not adequately taking into account the current new voters and irregular voters. Because this doesn’t feel like 2016 felt. Hopeful thinking perhaps, but I don’t think it’s unwarranted.
Was reading a very long article at daily kos (linking a number of other sources). It gets very into the weeds about end game polling and early voting data at the end. One point was that in 16, ominous signs for HRC included red shifts at the district level. Opposite this time it said. fwiw.
Agree.Thought they were just weighting to 2020,which creates a Pro Trump bias but they’re also altering what they predict the makeup of the electorate will be-undercounting women compared to the actual 20 & 22 results. I was shocked to learn that, frankly. Don’t see why you’d make that bet post Roe!
Polls are so messed up, I stopped following the discourse. Didn't hear about undercounting women. That's REALLY nuts! A comfortable Harris win--enough to be clear election night--is clear a 𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦.
It's mad. If anything, I think women will make up an even larger chunk than in 22 because Harris spiked an enthusiasm burst demonstrated in a huge wave of new voter registration (mostly women, youth, &/or BIPOC) after entering race.
The polls at this point are meaningless. With such a close race, these claims that Trump or Harris is pulling ahead when there's a move of a percentage point or so is ludicrous. We're gonna work our butts off to elect Kamala Harris as the next President of the United States. The rest is noise.
But that's the thing. The pollster guesses, like men are going to vote at a higher rate than 2020 (basically ALL are making this assumption) is what is keeping things close. There basically is no other evidence things are close, if you ignore polls it looks like a total blowout.
Posts like this make me wonder if people are a lot more pessimistic than me or if I'm just running in different circles
This thing's gonna be close, & we're not getting through it without significant right wing violence no matter the outcome, but I like Harris' chances better than Donnie's
There is a long thread I could write about it but won't; the world is better without my opinion on the matter right now.
"The current system has broken down & it's not clear what when or how it will be replaced & people exploit that to gain power & avoid responsibility" should suffice.
We've got women who know the stakes fighting for their bodies and their lives. They're counting on turning out a bunch of incels who get mad about women playing video games, but not mad enough to actually leave the house to vote. We're going to kick the shit out of them.
The last couple of elections, nobody really asks what the kids think, they just bite their nails and stress, and then the day after the election everybody is like "hey the kids showed up to vote"
372,000 more Democratic MIBs have been returned than Republican MIBs. State Democratic campaign officials were hoping for a 400,000 MIB edge. It's likely they'll see a 425 to 450k edge.
I think some of the doom and gloom feeling comes because it should not be that close. Yes, we've known it will be, but it shouldn't be. These are maga driven values and so far removed from what used to be repub/conservative values it does inspire a bit of doom.
It's just that it feels so wrong that it's so tight. So many delusional people willfully believe the lies. This is not a "point of view" problem. This is a terrifying ignorance problem.
I’m not doom / gloom and I’m not ‘panicking’ as some nonsense media are suggesting.
What I am doing is keeping track― of the astonishing cowardice among those who would put themselves forward as leaders, as elders with their heads down, hedging. There will be a reckoning. Winter’s coming.
Everyone do your part, regardless of what the polls say. Vote. MAGAnuts aren't sitting around assessing poll numbers and worrying. They know they're going to vote for Agent Orange. Undecided people can kick rocks.
Cast a ballot for Harris/Walz.
i'd rather spend next week feeling optimistic than stressed out, especially if we lose. if we lose, there will be plenty of time for bad feelings later. may as well take the joy where we can.
The problem is that we ourselves will rationalize the outcome in just a few weeks from now, and convince ourselves that all the signs were clearly pointing to it. And forget how opaque the future appears to us right now.
Take a moment to breathe in the uncertainty. We really don't know.
Canvassing in suburban AZ was a fairly positive experience: the Harris campaign knows whose votes they need, and people who bother to answer the door are engaged.
Though I have noticed that the message of the Dem fundraising emails I've received throughout this cycle (in all sorts of different races) has almost uniformly been "OMIGOD! WE'RE LOSING!"
Clearly a lot of Democratic political consultants think that that's the way to motivate the base.
My gut feeling is that she will win. (So my devastation will be epic if not). I try not to pay attention to my “feels” when I want something so desperately, so I have tried to keep them in check, but my mind keeps saying “we are going to have our 1st woman president, & she’s black & beautiful” 🤗
I'm with you. I believe Harris will win. If she doesn't, I really don't know what I'll do. After 2 meltdowns over W. Bush in 2000 and 2004, and 1 over Trump in 2016, I don't think my brain can withstand another one.
Tell you truthfully I’m not certain it’s as tight as it appears. Not saying we should be complacent but our efforts ARE working and better future IS possible.
the bummer is that even with winning there's still the realization that our neighbors, friends and even families are so f*cked up that we should try to process the horrid nature of their acceptance of a charlatan, a ghoul, baal.
Like it didn't have to be. Any number of events could have upset things but as long as the country is balkanized equating party to culture and as long as Trump has his loyal base married into the Republicans.....
I am saying that the future of the Republican Party was set at the time Lara Trump became co-chair, & they will be stuck running Donnie every 4 years until he dies, then his kids, until no voters are left in the Republican Party.
I realized that I could hand-wring about each little blip of (probably meaningless) data or I could just believe in the American people. I’m choosing to believe!
Yeah, it's bizarre to me that some people think a bunch of hardcore cryptobros are actually good at prognosticating the future, given the recent history of crypto in general.
The thing about prediction markets is that the underlying theory of predictive value is tightly aligned with rationalist dogma and they’re highly populated by that subculture. (As you know as well as anyone.)
and also they've gone full crypto. they are going to decide the fucking *election* outcome using a blockchain oracle and not, y'know, a human calling it
Polymarket seems so transparently a combo plate of “the house always wins because the house always gets a cut” and “money laundering” that I feel they must be explaining it wrong somehow?
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They might be more powerful than an individual thinks
I can't imagine being an Independent in this state. Not in this day and age.
This is the system they are endorsing.
I sincerely wish geopolitics didn't seem to be almost entirely about harm reduction at this point, but here we are.
What if we succeed but the Supreme Court goes "Well, actually..."?
Because both of those things have happened this century.
Journey Before Destination
Also, I don’t think we will have a Florida 2000 like the one Allan got “wrong.” Kamala is more liked than Gore was. I remember both sides not liking either choice then.
Bush
+Gore
=Bore
Much good, but much less good than ill,
I'll face it as a wise man would,
And train for ill and not for good."
Biden's failure to go after Insurrectionists in Congress and his failure to hold ALITO and THOMAS responsible for their crimes leaves it wide open for a Trump coup and steal..... somebody should wake Biden the fuck up to his goddamn duty!
There is no reasonable universe in which it should be close, based on... everything.
Something is deeply broken, and that very much concerns me.
https://youtu.be/F3L5qtPNCek?si=aYTWr2U5Pp_AE3r2
The Swifties and Bey hive alone...
This thing's gonna be close, & we're not getting through it without significant right wing violence no matter the outcome, but I like Harris' chances better than Donnie's
What I can't accept is the impunity.
I still feel like our government has failed to fulfill its most basic obligation to protect us.
He should not even be a candidate.
"The current system has broken down & it's not clear what when or how it will be replaced & people exploit that to gain power & avoid responsibility" should suffice.
There will be blood (to coin a phrase).
https://hightowerlowdown.org/
And I miss her.
They will rock the crate but their are more of us-- than them
How shit went rapidly downhill in these cases, should inform us as to how bad things can get here.
It’s up to us to do the same.
372,000 more Democratic MIBs have been returned than Republican MIBs. State Democratic campaign officials were hoping for a 400,000 MIB edge. It's likely they'll see a 425 to 450k edge.
Stop. Panicking folks.
What I am doing is keeping track― of the astonishing cowardice among those who would put themselves forward as leaders, as elders with their heads down, hedging. There will be a reckoning. Winter’s coming.
Cast a ballot for Harris/Walz.
Take a moment to breathe in the uncertainty. We really don't know.
Though I have noticed that the message of the Dem fundraising emails I've received throughout this cycle (in all sorts of different races) has almost uniformly been "OMIGOD! WE'RE LOSING!"
Clearly a lot of Democratic political consultants think that that's the way to motivate the base.
Just....WTF?!
There are a thousand think pieces on this. Choose the mythos you most like and run with it
I am saying that the future of the Republican Party was set at the time Lara Trump became co-chair, & they will be stuck running Donnie every 4 years until he dies, then his kids, until no voters are left in the Republican Party.
known-rigged gambling odds
this suggests they literally have no better numbers
(b) it’s fairly small (thus even swingier - one whale can tip the odds hugely)
and (c) because of the crypto and Thiel angles, it attracts a lot of Those Guys
I think it’s biased