Very true, civil service employees are very often smart and politically adept. They’re dedicated, and they know the ins and outs of how things get done-or not…
Given the balance of power in the federal judiciary, I think there's less chance of Trump pulling an Andrew Jackson, but only because he thinks his SCOTUS will give him what he wants regardless. On the positive side, the court system is exceedingly slow.
Germany became a one party system within a year. As did communist Russia. Hope is important but realism is required. The first Holocaust murders by Nazis were not ordered or planned. It was cops and the SS doing what they THOUGHT dear leader wanted. And they did that without a foreign power's help
I hope you're right, but I fear we are living in an era where the takeover of the Supreme Court makes those old rules irrelevant. It's hard to find any other interpretation after that immunity ruling.
yes, our government is designed to be slow and ineffective requiring widespread cooperation in order to affect change, but we’re also in unprecedented times.
trump is whatever he needs to be to suit his ends.
not being fatalistic, just realistic that scotus made a king in effect and the institutions to check him have shown either an unwillingness to do so or direct complicity—against the majorly of the people’s will.
all we have are each other and we have to start acting like it.
dems screwed bernie, an actual change agent who had the numbers, in favor of entitled institutionalist, hillary, who used the dnc as her campaign hq and charged the dnc millions for her donor list after her loss when the dnc was already at a major deficit.
Even authoritarian governments have politics. It can be both true that things are bad and trending worse, and also that there will still be battles to be fought
politocs starts with human rights./ The way hillary was treated was war. And if treating the degenerate nazis the way they treated hillary wipoes their patrheticfd country off the face of theearthm, so be it
Jamelle many (most?) of us really are right now absolutely powerless over what is happening in DC and I think people are really scared and anxious and they are reacting all kinds of way, so I think cut people some slack
My wish is for the opposite of hopelessness. My wish is for clarity and dispensing of cognitive dissonance amongst the intelligentsia. A madman has ascended to the most powerful office in the world, and the guardrails have been completely removed. What is the pathway forward? The judiciary? Protest?
I think it’s also true that the sum total of what the intelligence community, DoD, and DOJ can leak and/or do to Trump and his cronies has not yet been realized
I want to hear there's hope, however, I'm going to be honest and say, I do not feel hopeful. I don't know how to feel when almost 50% of the people in blue states like California voted for Trump this year. Latinos that usually stick together, they're all for deporting their own that are undocumented
I hate the word hopeless. It's going to be awful, there's no bones about that, and it's going to be ridiculous and terrible and we'll hate every second, but there is ALWAYS something to be done. The fight is absolutely necessary and I hope, when it's over, we'll build something better.
It's not a kind thought, but I really feel like smacking people whose only reaction in this crisis is quoting Hannah Arendt and showing everybody their Autocracy Bingo Card. "See? See? I TOLD you it was bad!"
Are they looking for an excuse to wait things out?
I don't think that. I do think we are closer to falling back into a Jim Crow or Nazi era than anytime in my lifetime and that is disheartening. Doesn't mean I'm giving up.
The moral arc may bend towards justice but we are currently in a section that is bending significantly away from it.
What I want to hear is that the Democrats in Congress refuse to give Trump a fucking INCH. No ‘bipartisanship.’ No ‘respect the office.’ NOTHING. Don’t attend the inauguration or SotU. Don’t stand when Trump appears. Don’t pretend he’s anything but a monster. HE GETS NOTHING.
This is why I love following you. You provide practical analysis without the rage baiting or fear inducing tactics others rely on to get more attention. We desperately need that right now.
I hope you are right. However, those staff follow laws, rules, ethics, and norms. I'm not confident this administration will be so conscientious, and that can change the equation. I hope I am wrong.
I don't believe it is hopeless. A plan & the execution of said plan are two entirely different things. We relied on their incompetence b4. We will need to worry if they succeed in turfing out the majority of pro bureaucrats for loyalists. The work of gov't will grind to a halt & they will have won.
What I really want to hear is, like, "be chill, they're obviously going to fail because they're dumb and mean," but I know that one isn't (entirely) true either.
Unfortunately the truth is the one in between where we've got to work at it to succeed.
He can't lose. If he can't get things done, it's the Deep State. If he succeeds, he's a genius. Either way, Trumpism endures. Anti-MAGA needs its own radical plan to get better things done.
"But the point about government is that no one has control. Lots of people have the power to stop something happening - but almost nobody has the power to make anything happen. We have a system of government with the engine of a lawnmower and the brakes of a Rolls-Royce."
-- Yes, Prime Minister
for what it's worth, I appreciate hearing that there's more to do than give up. learned helplessness is a real thing, especially in the wake of a traumatic event (and this election *was* traumatic)
what i’d like to hear is… what can actually be done. this seems true (that there’s distance between announcing a power, and having that power), but it doesn’t seem entirely apposite to the moment, when there’s a likely trifecta.
This is my question as well. Nobody who is currently in power or politically connected has any ideas they’re willing to share. “Fight back!”
Yes I’d love to - how, exactly?
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Get involved locally. Seriously. Organize within local chapters/orgs/mutual aid groups and meet likeminded people to grow from there. That's how we make impact as peasantry and we have the perfect time to get started.
Waiting for politicians to save us is just gonna leave you disappointed.
So as close as I can tell, the only thing we can really do is just wait and hope that the right is incompetent?
Maybe if you happen to live in a district that has a significant lefty population but voted Republican somehow you could pressure legislators? That doesn't seem very likely
I think the real unknown is if Trump will really lean into executive action, like p2025 calls for, because if he does then it's either up to people in agencies or the military to straight up disobey him or Congress to stop him somehow?
Not hopeless, but we need to accept that they are going to walk in there and try a new approach to American government called fascism. They are prepared to find every way to weaken and break the democratic norms and institutions. Is there a viable counter strategy?
I think what has a lot of people scared (me included) is that we're running out of potential obstacles to stop Trump from simply firing, jailing or shooting anyone who doesn't comply with his demands.
However, that doesn't negate the fact that even if Trump were to go all-in on murdering his critics, the people doing the shooting still need to be paid, or at, the very least, need to be supplied with ammo, gas, etc. None of which is going to be possible if he crashes the bureaucracy
Our nation is challenged by political corruptions of our primary task: conserving democracy for our shared future. We are ethically corrupted thru financial rewards & favor trades which propagate moral collapse in a person, system, relationship, political party, & nation. We need a minute. Stunned.
I fear the schedule F part of 2025, will make it a lot easier to wreak a lot of havoc. If he he leaves enough of the beurocratic infrastructure in place, I am inclined to believe you.
I want to hear that me and all the people I love and care about are going to be ok, Jamelle. None of us can afford to move to blue states and we’re not safe where we are. I don’t think it’s hopeless, but it won’t be easy going.
I mean, it did occur to me that the constraints that most bureaucrats operate under are, like, norms, that fascists just cast aside. The government gets a lot more malleable when you just start throwing people in jail as soon as you get impatient.
I suppose the "throwing people in jail" part is itself a thing you have to get the bureaucracy to actually do, but, actually, that's why MAGA has its mob. Basically replace "throwing people in jail" with "doxxing people to your newly-pardoned J6 nutjobs"
What I want to hear is that someone with actual power is actually doing something. I don't want to feel hopeless, I want someone to show me how to hope again.
Forgive me please, while I despair during this march towards several cliffs.
It's what a lot of people, myself included, *fear*.
But I heard you on FACTUALLY talk about the specific plans you expect the Maga republicans to enact, and in addition to learning from the specifics of what you said, I was reminded for the hundredth time that...
Black Americans have been through all this. It's the majority of your community's history in the US. The last few decades, as you said, are the exception. Whereas us white people are aghast at the idea of an unfair playing field, basic unfairness and systemic hostility is where you operate from.
This, I think, is why so many of us white people are so emotionally devastated right now (including me!). We're accustomed to a version of America* that only exists for us, and Trump/MAGA are threatening to take that away.
I’ve been getting a bit (understatement) annoyed at the folks acting like we’re about to experience a Dragonlance level cataclysm because of this election.
My friends and colleagues who have lived under dictatorships in Latin America and Spain are full of dread because they’ve seen the worst happen and it’s really not even that difficult to achieve.
Whets surprising to me is that feeling you you have a hunch about makes the lack of mass mobilization, and organizing that should be happening to the scale of the threat, make complete sense.
I *dont* want to hear that everything is hopeless! But I do worry that this SCOTUS has indicated that they won’t be much of a bump between points A and C…
It's not what I want to hear, but much of what you describe applies with respect to normal, rational, institutionally-constrained political actors. That's not Trump. He's vindictive, has been rewarded, and is very likely to see his efforts approved by his party and the Court. There is doom, and
I just saw an interview with Chris Coons applauding Musk and Vivek. Morning Joe is lap dogging. Jared Polis loves raw milk. The "opposition"...has not left me very inspired. I've already emailed my Congressman BEGGING him to fight, because if my son loses IDEA protections, he will suffer. But,
I don't know, what I'd really like to hear is anyone who's taking the threat of Trump controlling all three branches of government as well as a good chunk of the federal court system seriously.
Law exists because people decide it does so... What happens when they decide it doesn't?
I mean, what's a victory in this situation even look like?
The bulk of government runs off tradition and we know that he's going to completely ignore that, so what's a circumstance where he could conceivably *lose*?
What’s hopeless is that Epstein cohorts hasn’t seen a single courtroom, Diddy cohorts won’t see a jail cell, Trump won’t see a jail cell & none of his cohorts will see them for Jan 6.
We LOST & I wish y’all would stop with the fake optimism. THOSE CASES were the optimism.
We have an administration that wants to tear down the checks & balances of govt- but those are the bulwarks against corruption -those are the things the things we have to stand up for. We can’t go into a battle expecting to lose- we have to fight to win.
I don't want to hear that, Lol! But I particularly fear this SCOTUS being prone to try to rubber stamp as much as it can; and I fear T. getting another Justice on there. Dems not dealing w/term limits makes it worse. Expansion maybe wouldn't have helped us b/c T. would just jam it up more?
But SCOTUS isn't the only protection of the constitution, every elected official, officer of the law, and military member is sworn in by declaring to protect the Constitution of the United States, a SCOTUS opinion doesn't negate what the Constitution actually says
Absolutely! But not every sicko thing T. et al want to do violates the Constitution. Again, I started my reply, that I don't want to hear everything is hopeless. I don't think it is. I just meant that SCOTUS worries me more than most things
I feel like that scene in Volcano, where the geologist explains that when random lava bombs are being expelled from the volcano, you should wait until you see where it's heading before you move.
No this has honestly whats kept me from falling into despair. They’re only going to get a fraction of what was promised done. There’s still lots of hurdles to jump.
This is correct. If it’s hopeless to resist we get to go surfing & try a new diet. But if changing a complex bureaucracy is hard actually and every grain of sand in the gears slows down brutality, it’s time to get to work.
oh, interesting. having *YOU* remind us of this context feels so energizing and right. i always feel gratitude and hope in the reminder that there is always doing to be done.
You're right, of course. It would be a lot of work to completely remake the country, and he doesn't like work. Nor does he care about anything other than attention and grift.
But it's a scary time. How far will he go? Can't bend it but maybe break it? It's easy to spiral.
Thankfully his would-be successors (DeSantis, Vance) are incredibly awkward and unlikeable. Donald Trump has had a huge place in the popular American consciousness for decades—appearing in Home Alone 2, McDonald’s ads, reality TV, etc. He’s a unique case, electorally.
The only hope I have is that orgs like Earthjustice will file much litigation to slow down Trump’s most egregious attempts to abuse public lands. I can give them money.
Not me, not me at all. Optimism from anyone on this side of the fold would feel insane, but pragmatic resiliant realism feels much more what I need right now - you a leader of that mindset right now.
What you need acknowledge is the entire opposition to him gives many their livelihood. Secretly they all probably voted for him because their lives are meaningless without him. Nobody listens to their hyperbole.
There are always things to be done! But they won’t look like movies about heroic resistance or romanticized revolution. It will be slow, grinding, necessary. Hopelessness is easier
I think you'd admit that the idea that many battles will in the end be fought out before the Roberts Court is a bit terrifying. After the immunity decision my limited faith in SCOTUS collapsed completely.
There is a reason that Project 2025 started with gutting the machinery of government. They’ve thought of this too. I agree there is a gap between wanting to do and doing, but controlling all the levers of power and using them effectively as outlined in their plan is going to be interesting.
I mean… I’m asking seriously - who can stop them once they have all 3 branches, the lower courts, and, slowly but surely, the state legislatures and judiciary? How?
It’s all about their ability to execute and keep their coalition together. The hope is that the Courts and Congress descent enough to keep things together in spite of the guy in charge.
I think part of the feeling of hopelessness acknowledges this though. Ppl see a future of Trump trying to tear things down and hurt people he doesn't like, with (some) Dems fighting it and getting some wins to avoid large scale disaster, only for voters to not care bc they didn't get burned too bad
You’re not wrong but it’s pretty apparent that Trump was trying to test the waters with what he was capable of from a legal standpoint at the end of his first term. A lot of his theory is going to be put to the test now because rulings have come to fruition in the time since and he has congress 1/2
The media wants us to be nervous because that sells and gets us hooked. I think it’s a lot of doom and gloom for no reason. Tbf a lot of stuff DIDN’T change in his first term. But he clearly has more fleshed out plans and agendas this time around. Last time was more “we’ll figure it out on the way”
Actually, I'm looking for credible people to give us reasons to be hopeful (even if it will also be hard). Maybe it's naiive, but what do we have without it?
I think it’s very hard from most people who haven’t lived under competitive authoritarianism (like most Americans who didn’t live under Jim Crow) to convince of how there can be some forms of contestation we associate with democracy without “normal politics.”
Like what? The end goal of civil rights was (and is) convincing white voters to give a shit about injustice. How do we contest when there’s no voters to convince? I guess maybe one could argue that if convince enough overseas citizens they’ll come save us…?
Its also difficult to see congestion when our leadership (dems in this case) seemingly don’t give a shit about anything right now and it’s business as usual.
Resistance takes many forms. Schumer and Jeffries aren't going to be leading the Resistance rhetorically against Trump, they're pure insiders. But Schumer's pushing the judges through in the lame duck right now.
I think this is super important to take note of that people aren’t thinking about.
If people in general believe that 4 star generals and apolitical career civil servants are going to be super jazzed about these guys plans they’re horribly misguided.
I think there’s an impression among people that deploying 40-50 THOUSAND AD Soldiers into their own cities to 1. Round up their neighbors and 2. Actively suppress people’s rights is going to be something enthusiastically supported, you’d be wrong.
All Soldiers, Sailors, Marines, Airmen, and Space Cadets are duty bound to disobey unlawful orders, regardless of who is giving them.
“Kill protestors” and “round up people for concentration camps” are both wildly unlawful. Expect issues.
Agree and there is also a lot that State governors and legislatures can to do prevent the worse abuses, limit what is coming, and test the boundaries on pushing back.
But there are varying degrees of how power can be demonstrated and activated vs. assuming full mastery is required before damage can be done. Trump assembled a shadow army of "soldiers" from various agencies w/o markings to utilize during Floyd protests. Unmarked vans w/goons pulling people off /1
off the streets in Portland. None of these caused anyone to lose their job, there were no investigations & this was *before* he and by extension everyone who works in his administration was given a get-out-of-jail-free card by SCOTUS. The idea that there *can't* be a mass deportation operation /2
that sees 20,000 people crowded on to the tarmac & hangers of an airfield in Texas, no real records being kept as a constant stream of C-130s flies them off, landing at various rough unmarked airstrips in Mexico and shoving them out the door before flying back for the next is being foolish. Is it /3
improbable? Yes. Unlikely? Sadly no. But to think it is impossible because "bureaucracy" and "procedures" is a grave mistake and a failure of imagination on the part of us. The people staffing up this admin think they are on a mission from God to save this country by any means necessary, and the /4
only real "guardrail" left told Trump a few months ago that he doesn't need to wait for anyone's permission to do what he wants. It doesn't mean he will be able to break everything, or that we shouldn't resist when he does. But he has telegraphed on a few obvious things were there are a LOT of /5
This is where I think too many left leaning people are short sighted. The feeling that everything is limited to elections, and that you should be able to win something once and that’s it. No concern for incremental progress, or defending gains, or other forms of influence between elections.
It will once monarchy has been established once again. The very thing we fought against. It seems many just want one guy in charge forever who promises to fix all problems, from high prices to wars being fought around the world. I can’t think of anyone who can do this, besides Jesus himself.
Even if the president has a blank check from the Supreme Court, if you go one level down, the agencies still have to deal day to day with the DC Circuit, which is giving me some heart about the rule of law. (*Some*, let’s not go crazy.)
Elections are not a complete defense against anything, I agree with that. But the idea that nobody will be conflicted over whether to agree to *anything* no matter how unpopular because they’ll never have to run again seems a little premature to me.
I would hope that there are already people drafting briefs and plans of appeal for if he attempts to try impoundment (as he has been threatening a lot recently) and I don’t honestly know if SCOTUS would go his way on this one
I can actually envision a world where John Roberts, at least, continues to consider himself a high-minded caller of balls and strikes and therefore attempts in general to stymie Trump’s more flagrantly anti-constitutional moves, while not significantly slowing his policies, which he supports
The question is how much Gorsuch, Kavanaugh or Barrett care about their reputations in the same way and how much they’d be willing to vote with the liberal bloc in the name of attempting to shore up SCOTUS’s legitimacy
Yeah, I definitely am not a Supreme Court expert but I could see them striking it down as an erosion of Congress having the “power of the purse” but who knows?
But I also expect him to make some basic mistakes and try to impound funds from an agency that isn’t directly appropriated by Congress or go after programs that have already been fully appropriated and funded
...And covered with a million rakes to step on as they try to advance. And one thing the Last Trump Administration proved, they're really good at finding rakes.
being in quotes, it's more: "i have this power" to, hopefully, "what is dripping from my hands" in my dystopic novel. realistically they are not second guessing power with "i think". it is "i have this power" to "i have this power." so, ?
Elements of this old paradigm might hold for a time, but this is wishful at best. Institutions have proven to be totally inadequate, especially in the era of a reckless and partisan Supreme Court willing to invent law coupled with a brazen, traitorous crook who has revealed systemic weaknesses.
Your optimism is entirely unwarranted. The SCOTUS has essentially told Trump he can do whatever the fuck he wants, full stop. I have no faith in the Trump Courts, the Trump Congress and, of course, the Trump White House. I do have faith in people. even if my optimism is entirely unwarranted.
He can take individual actions, if it can be argued to be in the national interest. So he can give orders. Whether those orders can be legally carried out, how long that will take, how much opposition there will be on the way, that is not part of the ruling. They have not torn up the Constitution.
So he can order an extra judicial murder of somebody who is certainly a adjudicated enemy of the USA eg Bin Laden. But he can't scrap constitutional process just because he wants to.
What is particularly interesting about the decision, as I understand it at least, is that only the president is immune from prosecution. But the people who carry out any illegal orders are not. And who would trust Trump to pardon them?
Good point about the limits of the immunity. But, as you also note, Trump will pardon anyone convicted of a crime committed on his order. He's already said as much about those convicted for J6 crimes.
To use a highbrow reference, there were thirteen years between The Phantom Menace and the end of Revenge of the Sith. We're in Year Ten. Politics hasn't ended.
Comments
trump is whatever he needs to be to suit his ends.
all we have are each other and we have to start acting like it.
dems screwed bernie, an actual change agent who had the numbers, in favor of entitled institutionalist, hillary, who used the dnc as her campaign hq and charged the dnc millions for her donor list after her loss when the dnc was already at a major deficit.
hillary screwed everyone for her ego.
Or is it that everyone is so afraid of stochastic terrorism (soon to be direct violence) that they’re acquiescing and obeying in advance?
Are they looking for an excuse to wait things out?
The moral arc may bend towards justice but we are currently in a section that is bending significantly away from it.
Unfortunately the truth is the one in between where we've got to work at it to succeed.
-- Yes, Prime Minister
Maybe Trump will break the mold... but like you, I have my doubts.
Yes I’d love to - how, exactly?
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https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/trump-president-second-term-protests-indivisible-guide-rcna180338
otherwise seems like just acknowledging that, yes, it’s sort of up to Thune, and Gorsuch and Roberts, how much everyone is going to roll over.
https://bsky.app/profile/jamellebouie.net/post/3lbbl7ka75k2f
Waiting for politicians to save us is just gonna leave you disappointed.
Maybe if you happen to live in a district that has a significant lefty population but voted Republican somehow you could pressure legislators? That doesn't seem very likely
This timeline blows
Thank you for the reminder that bureaucracy doesn’t turn on a dime (nor a cheeto’s whim)
I get so frustrated when people are like "they've got all the branches, the world is over".
Umm yeah, it will be with that attitude. 💀
Forgive me please, while I despair during this march towards several cliffs.
But I heard you on FACTUALLY talk about the specific plans you expect the Maga republicans to enact, and in addition to learning from the specifics of what you said, I was reminded for the hundredth time that...
*I'm Canadian, but it's not that different.
The gods throw a gigantic mountain at the world which demolishes an entire hemisphere.
Like damn, okay.
Guess I'll take my pragmatism and go tf home then. 💀
I don't think it would take much bending to do either and those two things alone could cause a lot of damage.
A lot of what I want to hear is ‘that everything is not hopeless’, however, I don’t have the same level of optimism that you.
Russia 2.0 can be a reality if he has the right loyalists in key positions.
All resistance in the current moment requires accepting a ton of uncertainty. That might be hard, but it's necessary for the fight.
Law exists because people decide it does so... What happens when they decide it doesn't?
The bulk of government runs off tradition and we know that he's going to completely ignore that, so what's a circumstance where he could conceivably *lose*?
We LOST & I wish y’all would stop with the fake optimism. THOSE CASES were the optimism.
But it's a scary time. How far will he go? Can't bend it but maybe break it? It's easy to spiral.
What happens when he finally croaks? The one thing I don't think we have to worry about is him, personally, staying in office for decades.
But then, Vance.
If people in general believe that 4 star generals and apolitical career civil servants are going to be super jazzed about these guys plans they’re horribly misguided.
“Kill protestors” and “round up people for concentration camps” are both wildly unlawful. Expect issues.
For example, you can’t take money appropriated for NOAA and use it to build a wall.
It’s all in The Red Book - https://www.gao.gov/legal/appropriations-law/red-book
Those below him will lack same immunity but can still cause harm before it gets checked.
He runs out the clock most times. #ETTD