The democrats need to be way above the republicans on average to guarantee victory ( 5% at least). Also is nobody going to talk about the swing states?
wow yes you're right flag emoji nobody at all has talked about the swing states. what even are those. where are we. what is this glowing box in my hands.
Threatening people with terrorism is not a slick burn as the liberal on television might have told you so.
The swings states are all worse than those average pools. This sort of stupid, illogical ass behavior is exactly what is giving trump a shot. They learned nothing from 2016
Okay, hell, I'm old, but this made me think of the first Batman movie where he's desperately looking for a safe place to ditch the bomb. Only replace the bomb with a phone.
(The *first* Batman movie, in 1966, based on the camp TV series.)
I think the doom thing is that people realize it’s so close between an amoral criminal insurrectionist-and someone who’s actually qualified..further doomation is that Americans who think Trump is just great surround us every day and won’t be going away with him.
💯 right
as we sit here today trying to decide if Democrats are right to panic, there is literally nothing in the mass of available public polling to suggest that the Blue Wall is crumbling, or that the Sunbelt swing states are out of reach, or that the race writ large is slipping away from Harris. ‘
There are a lot of ticked off women that are not going to stand for men overriding their rights to their own bodies. They are in the election booth alone. I haven’t seen a poll for that.
A NYT piece described how Dems are misjudging young working-class men of color.
The piece mentions that economic class is a greater indicator of where these men stand.
I am a canvasser and can confirm this attitude. Some latinos will vote for Harris, but they tell me they did better under Trump.
I can only speak for myself but the "why haven't these people come to their senses yet?!" voice in the back of my head is what pilots my negativity even though I truly know they never will.
I'd also like to point out that if you look at the actual Harris campaign messaging, they're still mocking Trump for being a weird old freak. Everyone seems to be convinced they stopped doing that and I don't understand why.
I really think there are a segment of online people - both Dem voters and lefties- who just wouldn’t know what to do with themselves if they couldn’t believe that Dems are fucking everything up. It’s like a security blanket.
They do fuck up a lot, so I get it. But people on this site, I think because the campaign doesn't post here are getting their information from what people they follow say the campaign is doing rather than what it is actually doing.
I believe she will win decisively and I refuse to pay attention to polls. Doesn’t everyone know they are flooding the field with republican polls so when he loses he can try the 1/6 equivalent? He will quote all those polls as proof of election fraud…. STOP buying into that bullshit
Exactly. Nothing else has changed and this is exactly what the Republican dirty tricks team are doing. I hope it backfires on them an MAGA Republicans decide they don’t have to vote anymore with all these great polls.
Obsessed with pundits suggesting that because Harris has only been the nominee since July US voters still need to 'get to know her'.
Kids, campaigns in the sane world run for a few weeks. Takes about an hour to get to know a candidate. "Have you ever tried to overthrow democracy?" is a good start.
They're pushing the narrative that since Trump's supporters have supposedly not abandoned him, despite a month of Harris' efforts, then he'll win, bc racist white people decide things & are the only ones who count. Trump just has to show up, Harris must conquer all to have a shot, they think.
I can't stand the evidence that there is multiple millions of unvetted human beings streaming into the country since the last election. Scary to think what comes next for all of us.
I think people are just worried that there isn't a clear indicator of Harris definitely winning, and seeing how close polls are is bringing anxiety of facism, which I get, over a lot of folks. Like you've pointed out though, some of Trump's moves don't make sense for someone claiming they a win.
Some of us have a lot more at stake than others. I'm a trans woman. I've read Project 2025, and it essentially calls for imprisoning "proponents of transgenderism" on Page 5 of 922.
I've studied history.
I've seen this play before, and I don't like the third act.
Even if it somehow ends up a blowout win for Harris, Donald Trump is going to get tens of millions of votes. Again. For the third time. An upsettingly large portion of this country's populace straight-up wants to end democracy, so you'll have to excuse me if I'm not relaxing by the pool, you know?
Any win by Harris will only be the start of the work, because Trump will treat any victory by her as illegitimate. Court cases, protests, and terrorism against local and state officials are all on the table no matter the margin.
I sent hundreds of postcards & now am making calls for 3-5 hour/week with a group similar to https://indivisible.org. It’s time to lean in, not lean back.
nor that we need to be taking the polls at face value. like, practically at all.
one, it'd be abnormal to NOT have a significant MOE at this point, esp with that response rate, and two, all other signs point to no, it is not the GOP who will be overperforming, if anyone.
Why not clips of Terry Jones from the Monty Python "Election Night Special" sketch? "I think the interesting thing here is the big swing to the Silly Party and of course the very large swing back to the Sensible Party, and a tendency to wobble up and down in the middle because the screw's loose."
I feel like a lot of people are cherry-picking polls to support whatever narrative they choose. The data is close and noisy enough that it’s easy to do that if you ignore margins of error. In the aggregate, there’s been no significant movement.
Most definitely. But that's also kind of where we are. We've all drawn our lines in the sand, and the margins are what's left. The people who truly don't care and will probably stay home, the single issue voters, and the folks who think voting for Stein will actually make a difference.
The battle lines have been long since drawn out for this race; if anyone doesn't ALREADY have an opinion on Trump one way or the other by now—well, by several years ago, actually—I can't imagine he could do anything that could change that.
The trick, as always, is motivating the people we DO have.
“Yes, yes, but what if we need it to *feel* like something’s happened? So we can have ratings? Wouldn’t that be jolly? …and not potentially world-ending such that we should do everything in our God given power to stop it!?”
There is going to be a momment after the election that all the polling companies are going to have to admit they have no clue how to get an accurate result
Really insane how the story of this election is one of consistency. Before biden dropped, trump led by like 2, after he dropped harris led by two. Weirdly consistent.
This election, it might not be the votes that count, but the polling stations and registration shenanigans, voting-roll purgings, gerrymandering, ballot counting, and official tally certification.
The Republicans are working _very_ hard to make sure that they "win" -- no matter what the voters want.
Americans need to present MAGA / GOP with a convincing landslide, big enough to dissuade them from trying to claim the vote was rigged for the Democrats and that "really" the Republicans "actually" won the election.
Lots of us have already voted. I encourage anyone who can to vote as soon as you can. It locks in your vote (in case you get hit by a bus) & takes you off the call/walk list of your local Dem campaign. One less voter to contact.
Harris dropped a percentage point which is BAD considering she was only at 50% to start with. Trump's percentage is the same. Seems like it has changed, actually.
I think there was a sense that the upward initial swing would just keep going up up up. That it hit a predictable limit shouldn’t be cause for panic but it is being perceived as something bad must have happened that prevented a continued march to a landslide.
Yeah, there’s bound to be a limit to voters who answer polls, and they probably hit that ages ago.
So this is just the same pool of “voters who answer polls” over and over, and they’ve pretty much all made up their minds, so they keep giving more or less the same responses, so why would it change?
I was spooked by the poll in the NYT in which voters listed their “biggest concern” about Harris (from a list of ten things that encompass more or less every possible reason you could not vote for her) as “other.” What could that mean I wonder?
This is maybe an interesting story comparing it to 2020 but then you’d also want to ask why Trump is struggling to hold onto white voters without a college degree.
Recall back in ‘08 when it was “reported” that many black voters didn’t feel Obama was really black. And hispanics traditionally don’t get along with blacks and were unenthused by Obama, blah blah blah. Didn’t pan out, but the media sure hyped it up hard.
Sadly, since Trump won in 2016, EVERY election for the foreseeable future will be an Endgame election. We lost decades of progress as a result of that election and manged to barely keep us teetering at the precipice. ANY minor lapse of concentration, no matter how small, could tip us over the edge.
I agree to a certain degree, in that Trump has an almost preternatural ability to charm a certain demographic. However, even if Trump died today, the threat would remain since the GOP has realized that his WAS a viable tactic, and it's only a matter of time before someone else can take his place.
It looks a lot more like statistical noise so unless we see a trend of week over week drops.... I mean this is margin of error close and every pollster is hoping they dont have a 3rd election in a row where they didnt miscount trump supporters
The poll watchers I follow on X who haven't come here point out that the entire evidence for tightening is Republican pollsters flooding the zone with shit, like that TIPP poll that concluded the turnout in Philadelphia would be 12% to arrive at an R+1 LV figure.
if the canvassing team got all of the doors “right” before the knock (the one trump person they knocked on, the analytics had them as a likely trump voter, levels of persuasion/motivation felt on track) that’s really really good. i don’t think pennsylvania will be a problem for harris.
One of the points made by the poll watchers is that reputable polls have Harris doing fine in PA, MI, but maybe not WI - but PA, MI, as the bigger states, have more eyes on them and a lot more Republican pollsters and straight out fake polls (or TIPP's fake LV screen), skewing the averages.
I’m definitely more worried about MI (Israel/Gaza) and Wisconsin (apparently impossible for Democrats to handle properly seeing how Ron Johnson is still a senator) but Trump and Co are spending time and money line they know they aren’t winning Pennsylvania like they need to
My very weak anecdata is that in October of 2016 I drove through Bucks County, PA and saw a sea of Trump lawn signs and laughed them off. Last weekend I made the same drive and saw a sea of Harris lawn signs.
Lawn signs may not mean much, but does a change in lawn signs mean anything?
Lawn signs might point to a stronger ground game. Which Clinton ignored in 2016.
It seems like the Ds are doing a GOTV effort and the Rs are trying to turn out people who don't vote, and not doing well (partially because Musk). Who knows!
i just joined here and was never really on mastodon. and i think i stopped paying attention to boston politics as much once i moved away from there. glad to see you again.
yes, which is why they're pretty much all the vapid media talks about at this point. entrail readings. how're those guts now? how about now? how about NOW??
A week later we're at 105,000, so 10% turnout. So that polling model might be right, if no more than 2% of the Philadelphia electorate votes between now and polls closing.
The race hasn't changed, but dems are finally internalizing that it's basically a pure tossup when the vibe had previously been that Kamala was cruising to victory, so it feels like things have gotten worse
The media is owned by the Republicans, their boy has become a lead weight in a kiddie pool.
The "close race" false narrative is very profitable........... innit?
Also national polls don’t matter. Swing state polls do. And some of these national polls are registered voters only, which are less accurate and meaningful this close to the election.
Trump has always been an unhinged, racist, misogynistic, narcissistic grifter. But the last month has seen him basically reciting a semi-coherent coles notes of Mein Kampf at his rallies.
I think pundits wanting to cover a horse race is true, but there's also a lot of anxiety around this being the new normal. There's a portion of the US with outsized political power who would happily vote for fascism if you get the right guy & nobody in power seems to be interested in rectifying that
Look, why would they name this polling organization Trafalgar if it wasn't dignified and respected and also because you can't really name something Waterloo although I think somebody important died at.. OK let's start again, ALL POLLS WELCOME
538 is still too lenient on red wave pollsters, and GOP has been dropping red wave polls on Michigan to try to change the averages. Meanwhile we're doing great in the actual early vote tracker, and polls aren't votes. Sign up to text or phonebank! It's all hands on deck now until the end.
All the other betting markets have taken a sharp turn towards trump in the last week. There's no event to explain the change, but it seems like wishful thinking to write it off as market manipulation.
Gambling addicts aren't any more stupid than the general population and betting markets don't usually skew conservative. They're more predictive of election outcomes than polls.
I will note that the major one that has done this is Polymarket, which requires cryptocurrency to play--and crypto folks aren't exactly a source of unbiased information.
My answer to that meme about what frivolous cause you'd take up if you were a billionaire is I'd get every Dem voter a great big SAD blue-spectrum light and a extra-large bottle of vitamin D, starting in September of every election year.
Hell, give R's some too. Less miserable bastards all around!
Lots of ptsd from 2016, despair coming to the realization that 40% of the voting pop are vile racist bigots or tolerate it, and fear of what is going to happen to marginalized communities.
I can’t read 1 minute about polls without getting instant PTSD, even when they look good. Especially bc we know they’re gonna try anything to cheat or lie later. That, and those 40% will not let us relax. Sorry lol I’ll feel better after my coffee 😹
What seems to have changed is Harris/Walz have gone from talking about how weird their opponents are and putting them on the defensive, to tacking to the center to try to pick up a few defector votes.
That seems like a … poor decision.
I needed to read this. Here is some other good news I read. This doesn’t mean much tho, bc our equivalent party might win the next federal election and they are just smarter about what they do as in they say little, but do whatever they want
That's the whole entire point. She needed momentum to pull decisively ahead. 2.4 points won't cut it — too close to guarantee an E.C. win, too close to avoid litigation and mischief, too close for any pull downballot. Everything she's doing—especially Cheney-hugging + Gaza—has failed to pull her up.
Do you read The Status Kuo? In today’s post, he talks about how the vast majority of polls are right wing sponsored. The MSM must present the polls as close in order to 1) maintain suspense and 2) allow Trump to contest the outcome should he lose.
I just worry when Trump's share in the polls goes up by 0.1% the same week that he goes all in on not even pretending to hide his blatant race pogrom strategy. It's not repelling voters in droves as it should and might even be helping him.
I’m 40 and everyone I know keeps saying, “It’s Hillary all over!”. Maybe I’m too plugged into all this garbage but it doesn’t really feel like that at all!
Comments
The swings states are all worse than those average pools. This sort of stupid, illogical ass behavior is exactly what is giving trump a shot. They learned nothing from 2016
(The *first* Batman movie, in 1966, based on the camp TV series.)
Using the data to go work or donate where you are needed.
https://wapo.st/3zW9E1E
as we sit here today trying to decide if Democrats are right to panic, there is literally nothing in the mass of available public polling to suggest that the Blue Wall is crumbling, or that the Sunbelt swing states are out of reach, or that the race writ large is slipping away from Harris. ‘
/s
The stagnation feels like a loss, and it doesn’t help that we’re gliding into Nov. with nearly as much anxiety as we had in August.
They're outta gas.
The piece mentions that economic class is a greater indicator of where these men stand.
I am a canvasser and can confirm this attitude. Some latinos will vote for Harris, but they tell me they did better under Trump.
They're mostly working class people who are paying more for goods and services. That's true for all workers. They blame Biden.
Build Back Better focused on infrastructure, but that doesn't "have a face" in these neighborhoods.
Dems don't have a good response I can share.
That seems like a good answer, if it is true.
https://Iwillvote.com
https://Ballotpedia.com
For the best democracy, please re-skeet.
https://www.hopiumchronicles.com?utm_source=navbar&utm_medium=web
Kids, campaigns in the sane world run for a few weeks. Takes about an hour to get to know a candidate. "Have you ever tried to overthrow democracy?" is a good start.
https://bsky.app/profile/jamellebouie.net/post/3l6gogmyxy22l
I've studied history.
I've seen this play before, and I don't like the third act.
Also, and I say this with no acorn or whatever, more of a general statement, what are you doing?
Are you volunteering?
Are you talking to folks who trust and know you about it?
The more people work, and put in the time and effort, the better.
Again, that's not aimed at you, but yeah.
My gut says no, but then also i see things like that article estimating a Trump term means sthing like 5GT additional CO2 emissions...
https://web.kamalaharris.com/forms/take-action-for-kamala-harris/
one, it'd be abnormal to NOT have a significant MOE at this point, esp with that response rate, and two, all other signs point to no, it is not the GOP who will be overperforming, if anyone.
The trick, as always, is motivating the people we DO have.
There is going to be a momment after the election that all the polling companies are going to have to admit they have no clue how to get an accurate result
(Obviously joking)
Making it like trump is inevitable is meant to depress Harris turnout
The Republicans are working _very_ hard to make sure that they "win" -- no matter what the voters want.
Otherwise, it's going to get very messy indeed.
Now NYT is going to have to invent some other reason to ignore the fascism
If not I’m a disgusted fool.
I'm sticking by my prediction for a near-landslide: Harris will win about 28 states, and she will win five of the seven "swing" states.
So this is just the same pool of “voters who answer polls” over and over, and they’ve pretty much all made up their minds, so they keep giving more or less the same responses, so why would it change?
A situation that becomes much harder to replicate if he is gone.
Lawn signs may not mean much, but does a change in lawn signs mean anything?
It seems like the Ds are doing a GOTV effort and the Rs are trying to turn out people who don't vote, and not doing well (partially because Musk). Who knows!
I stopped posting on Twitter about 20 months ago (other than "please leave") and was on Masto for a while until settling here.
And Pennsylvania isn't even run by Republicans.
The "close race" false narrative is very profitable........... innit?
Trump has always been an unhinged, racist, misogynistic, narcissistic grifter. But the last month has seen him basically reciting a semi-coherent coles notes of Mein Kampf at his rallies.
The shape of the race should have changed!
Why hasn’t it?
https://bsky.app/profile/borninawar.bsky.social/post/3l6ar4fyxm324
I don’t get why people seem to be having a minor freak-out this week
One of the few true things Trump ever said was the line about how he could shoot someone on 5th Avenue and not lose support.
But don't trust the polls.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1456942/presidential-voting-enthusiasm-party-us/
Hell, give R's some too. Less miserable bastards all around!
https://Iwillvote.com
https://Ballotpedia.com
For the best democracy, please re-skeet.
Doing any and all of that helps ease the anxiety for me and everyone else I know. It really works.
https://Iwillvote.com
https://Ballotpedia.com
For the best democracy, please re-skeet.
The media is just keeping things like this so people go out and vote - and of course watch all the juicy TV ads on Election Night.
Actual polls:
Harris - 65%
tRump - 35%
And I'm being conservative.
That seems like a … poor decision.
It's all about Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin now.
If she picks off Nevada or NC that would be a sign of divine intervention but I am not a believer
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/pennsylvania/
The vibes in Mid-Michigan are… pretty good…
NOBODY HAS WON ANYTHING UNTIL THE ELECTION IS OVER
See below, from Simon Rosenberg's Substack today, using Ton Bonier's early voting data.
THE VIBES!!!