"It's just a feeling" counts for nothing, but reason 2 (money) and especially reason 1 make sense to me. My sense is that Trump's cruelty attracted new followers his first year (Charlottesville, migrant child separation), but he hasn't gained any since, while active opposition has grown.
Carville has been sharp. I’ve listened to him as a guest on the Bulwark podcasts. He said Obama should shout that the reason some folks have good economic memories of the first year or 2 of trumps term is because Obama built it up. After he said that, Obama started emphasizing it in the campaign.
In general, sure, but do you know one single person who had any intention of voting in this election who's now gonna be "oh this is in the bag, I'll stay home and do nothing"?
"Lindsey Graham, who is whining that Republicans are getting creamed in fund-raising. He’s not wrong to complain, since Ms. Harris is processing Cheddar like a Wisconsin cheese factory."
That whole thing was dumb. Like tell me you know nothing about movement building without telling me. "Look! We stole a brand! That makes us a mass movement!" Reminds me of the worst cringe moments of the Women's March.
One reason I know Hell doesn't exist (aside from the obvious one) is that because human beings can get used to anything, no matter how horrific. Bored, even.
No, it's fine. He just said the obvious, and he waited until Trump was no longer of any use to him to say anything. I can continue to despise him with a clean conscience.
Yeah, he about sums up my thoughts. I've been preaching this to family members all summer. I would have liked to some more movement in the polls, but they are cooked.
Honestly looking from the outside - the anger at the NYT often seems to be that this is the feeling people want to have, and they don't want to hear that some people don't feel the same. And certainly not why they don't.
Listened to an interview with him about this and other topics on NPR Friday. He said she (and Democrats in general) need to take the gloves off and be more forceful in messaging, & call Republicans out on their BS.
Thanks for the share! Carville can be so annoying, but apparently better in writing. Everything he said is true, not pie-in-the-sky. My entire being, while queasy about Schlump, tells me there's no LOGIC to his winning. While Schmucko ramps up the violence and hate, Kamala hasn't set a foot wrong.
He's right that Harris has put together a rather diverse coalition, ranging from progressives to traditional Republicans. Not to mention the 2 most influential pop stars in the entire world. That outreach is significant.
Meh. To me that reads like something you add to pad the column inches and/or because you're a slave to the Five Paragraph Essay. Reasons 1 and 2 are compelling, and they're plenty good enough. "Reason" 3 is just lazy writing.
Hopefully Carville is right. Personally, I'm white knuckling this election. In a sane reality TFG shouldn't have been able to run due to (waves generally) 2017-2021
He was more scary when he was "rational" back in the 90s,because then he had the ear of a sitting president, and what he was rationalizing was throwing marginalized people out of the sled in order to try and win elections.
This is kinda where I am. I think she's doing better than the polls, whether because they were tweaked too much to account for Trump overperforming in 2016 and 2020 or Dobbs quiet voters, or people just saying they don't want this shit anymore.
He did say about GOP racism towards JD Vance’s family “y’all made this stinky shithouse now sleep in it,” which was a pretty cool way to be mean to assholes
Gotta give the guy some credit for comparing Kamala’s campaign to Secretariat’s monstrous run in the Belmont stakes. That’s some imagery I needed in my head :)
I can’t recall who it was, but a day or so ago I saw someone list out everything on Harris’s side from an election performance perspective, and it was a long list (economy and unemployment to fundraising and rally crowd turnout et al), and the only thing in TFG’s side were some polls. So yeah.
I hope he’s right but I’m not convinced by this reasoning. Everyone I’ve spoken to IRL about the election has only one thing on their minds: their pocketbook.
Odd, his fundraising emails to me are ALL about sweating the election. Apparently only MY personal dollars can make him stop sweating the election. Perhaps he needs #Lume.
I would like to believe this but I keep remembering the bitter disappointment of 2016 & that goddam electoral college. Plus I’m certain there will be numerous illegal but at least temporarily successful maneuvers by Trump people to invalidate votes or just outright steal it.
If he's right, then it's a comforting piece this close to the election. If he's wrong, at least it will be mildly entertaining to watch people dunking on him for it while the world burns
yeah. Yeah man. I gotta agree with you. One strong reason?
Dude would be shilling harder and trying to make those consultant/media appearance bucks if he really thought it was there for the taking to talk panic. But it isn't, ergo.
Crom, I will make you a deal: If it's a complete blowout, a blue tsunami, I will open his damn "Im steamed!" emails and texts for the next two elections.
trump pays people to attend his rallies for the first 10 minutes kamala inspires people to attend hers major differences and why i too think kamala will win but lets not assume anything keep up the fight till the end complacency is a killer
I'm afraid he's not taking into account that the Trumpsters are going to be better prepared to STEAL the election, especially in a few of the right-leaning swing states. It's SCARY what's happening in hundreds of counties where election boards are staffed with pro-Trump folks ready to commit treason
Generally speaking if the polls of Likely Voters were right Harris would narrowly win. Trump wins if the polls once again under estimate his support but the LV models they use show a lot of signs of being tweaked to stop that from happening. This may even mean they underestimate Harris.
I’m trying to contain my optimism, but some of those data nerds have me feeling pretty good.
She has been appealing to many different types of voters in the battlegrounds. Trump is focusing on one or two types of people, and none of them are reliable voters.
I know the media is terrible and Americans are kind of stupid & believe Rs are good for the economy, but I feel like no one wants this old Nazi hanging around anymore.
From Carville's mouth to God's ears, but I am, in fact, sweating this election. I am medicating heavily for this election. This medication may steal years of my life.
So, hey, good for him, but I've heard this story before.
My microquibble is with taking 45 at face value when he promises not to run again. He is a chronic liar & will not go away until he gets prison time or is incapacitated or deceased.
My only criticism of this piece is Carville's trust in Trump's claim that he will not run again. He's not exactly famous for keeping his promises, and there are lots of good reasons for him not to keep this one.
When I say he will not be any shape I mean he will not be walking around. He will either be dead or utterly infirm. The man is not only old he's unhealthy.
Comments
🤔
(sarcasm)
Watch a few episodes of 'The Office' - British or American, they both work.
You WILL get through this.
Bill K followed my twitter acct
he joined the only Green Party woman in the House of Lords
I welcome all followers!
tbh I don't mind agreeing w him occasionally, if he wants to embrace correct opinions, who am I to judge lol
because afaict VP has not made any policy concessions
Dick Cheney made a statement
I agree with what he said
I don't need to quibble w him
*make good points about Gaza, as children have no talent for autocannibalism
Trump is Lawless
and Kamala has to be Flawless
(-just like you said)
But he is making a lot of sense here. So I hope this one time in quite a while, he's on the money.
Plus alliteration.
He should dialogue for a noir.
https://fortune.com/2021/01/18/trump-approval-rating-average-popularity/
This guy is sure to miss major tectonic voter changes. Smart isn't enough; you have to be perceptive.
I needed this this morning.
Dude would be shilling harder and trying to make those consultant/media appearance bucks if he really thought it was there for the taking to talk panic. But it isn't, ergo.
Maybe you pundits and columnists should actually set up shop in a Swing State to get the opposite vibes that Carville is getting.
jezzuuuscrist
My suggestion is (always going to be) the Blue Wall.
I’m trying to contain my optimism, but some of those data nerds have me feeling pretty good.
She has been appealing to many different types of voters in the battlegrounds. Trump is focusing on one or two types of people, and none of them are reliable voters.
So, hey, good for him, but I've heard this story before.
My microquibble is with taking 45 at face value when he promises not to run again. He is a chronic liar & will not go away until he gets prison time or is incapacitated or deceased.
(and still get the nomination.)
A conviction on the DC case renders him legally ineligible to run again upon release.
A conviction on the Miami case, if it's re-opened, will have a longer sentence with more restrictions.