i think the biggest blindspots among pundits and “savvy” political journalists are abortion and jan. 6. they don’t think they are significant and to some extent they don’t want them to be
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I suspect many journalists are personally very invested in those subjects which makes them feel biased if they pay much attention to them in their jobs. But maybe I give too much credit in some cases
Conventional pundit wisdom seems to be that these issues are played out and no one wants to hear about them anymore (particularly Jan 6). But that doesn't seem to be true (particularly abortion/Dobbs).
I have stated for two years now that the Dobbs Effect is effectively an unpollable metric that is going to skew elections leftward for a whole generation
And J6 is also likely to do that, ESPECIALLY among Latinos
And yes, the media doesn't want to touch either with a 40 foot barge pole
I know it’s anecdata and not predictive and selected by me etc. but all I see on TikTok anymore is women telling harrowing personal abortion stories and women taking friends and relatives to vote for the first time, or to vote for a democrat for the first time.
nothing more dangerous to pundits than an electorate that actually cares about specific issues and isn't fickle / lurching between candidates based on the latest column (in their estimation)
god forbid they stop being lazy minded and actually look at what's in front of their nose. They're being paid six figures or more to be fatuous, wrongheaded jackholes and it's never cost them anything, why stop now?
Think you're right. If I got it correctly, #RachelBitecofer mentioned these two exact issues in her conversation with #DavidPakman noting that they might have an opportunity to break through at this late date.
PS: She's been right when others were completely wrong.
The argument between Charlemagne and Anderson Cooper was really telling: Cooper believed that people *already knew* the dreck 45 was spewing each day, and thus it would be boring/redundant to repeat it.
Projection of assumed knowledge AND assumed reaction to that knowledge.
And that's wild, because those have to be two of the biggest factors this election. To think they are insignificant is grounds for those people to no longer have a career as a political pundit.
Because they consider abortion to be nothing more than ‘birth control for hussies’ instead of being an essential part of healthcare affecting all women all the time.
This is really good. Itput me in mind of the NYT panel discussion column about whether Biden should drop out, and Jamelle was the only analyst who factored in the existence of Vice President Harris.
For my entire adult life, reproductive rights have been framed by political pundits as a “women’s issue”—that is, a special interest rather than a “core” political issue of general interest to the voting public. Since Dobbs, they have repeatedly underestimated its impact.
The chattering classes *still* don’t see the rights and interests of people different from them as anything other special interests, as opposed to the unmarked “neutral” issues such as inflation. Your blog post is completely on point.
A “black hole” around the subject of abortion is an apt metaphor. I think many male journalists just reflexively think “but that was two years ago” when the topic comes up and dismiss it as not relevant https://bsky.app/profile/catfrat.bsky.social/post/3l7f2oh7zpq2d
Yup. They think: it happened, people move on. But meanwhile forced-birthers keep pushing for more draconian restrictions, women keep suffering and in some cases dying, and multiple states have ballot measures attempting to restore sanity. It's a continuing story, but so many of them don't get that.
I think about statutes of limitations as an analogy. A one time offense, the statute starts running as soon as the offense is done. A continuing violation, as long as it keeps going the statute never starts to run. Journalists think Dobbs is a one time thing but it's a continuing violation.
Washington Post: 60 year old male billionaire
LA Times: 72 yo male billionaire
Chicago Tribune: 82 yo male billionaire
Boston Globe: 75 yo male billionaire
Minnesota Star Tribune: 83 yo male billionaire
Wall Street Journal, NY Post, and Fox: 93 yo male billionaire
I feel like the silent blind spot is the number of people who ignored COVID who were right wing. That's going to have effects now and over the next decades
Both of them share the problem of not being handled in the correct venue efficiently. Trump should have been arrested for couping and put on trial. And maybe he gets ruled innocent. SCOTUS ruled Dobbs? Congress needs to legislate how it works.
It's been really frustrating when I see (overwhelmingly male) journalists toss abortion as an issue to go "Well most people vote with their pocketbooks". Blud you know what else is a massive change to your economic situation
reproductive rights are 💯 economic and it’s bizarre that they are unable to comprehend this. Economic considerations are a major driver of reproductive decisions (both to reproduce and not to reproduce).
I think that they overestimate abstract concepts like "democracy", "fascism", "freedom", etc and underestimate tangible things like healthcare, crime and inflation, whether actual or just perceived. I don't think people struggling to pay the bills care about jan. 6 at all. I hope I'm wrong.
or put another way, “The common people pray for rain, healthy children, and a summer that never ends. It is no matter to them if the high lords play their game of thrones, so long as they are left in peace. They never are."
Hahaha yes! All the social mores that prevent me from being a huge piece of shit are bad! All the social mores that keep people I don't like in line are good! Freedom for me, fascism for thee.
women don't want to be forced to make "healthy children" or whatever the hell.
the abortion issue means they are NOT leaving us in peace but actively harming us every single day we are alive.
Abortion is healthcare. Abortion is not an abstract concept while healthcare is tangible. People with uteri understand this and have been voting accordingly. Harris understands this and has worked to tie Trump to abortion bans. Cis men treat abortion as unimportant, but it isn't.
I guess I'm kinda just grasping at straws at this point, trying to justify any reason why people would vote for trump other than that they actually like him and what he represents
Welp, sounds like none of those people pay attention to anything. Bc if they did, an avg of $4K tax on goods and food isn’t great for them. Neither is getting rid obamacare. And crime is down. But sure, crime and inflation westeros…yep that’s the ticket.
If "tangible things" like "healthcare" mattered, it would matter that one side wants to eliminate Medicare/Medicaid and the ACA, and the other doesn't.
"Do people care about X" is not some intrinsic property. It's determined in large part by how much media and elected leaders are talking about X, how much they're actively keeping the issue fresh in their minds and making the case for it.
People didn't care about Iraq in 2001, until they suddenly did, and that was because elected officials kept hammering the point that Iraq was the big bad enemy that needed to be defeated, and then suddenly there was broad support for a completely unjustifiable and absurd war.
I live in metro Detroit. My in laws live in a dark red bubble of metro Detroit. They are modestly wealthy, white, retired, life long Republicans. My MIL voted straight Dem ticket this year over abortion. My FIL voted Harris/Walz and Elissa Slotkin because of Jan 6.
I think accepting that they are shatters the illusion that there's some semblance of a shared vision for America going forward.
Adding to this, while the "jokes" at MSG have gotten their due time and analysis, uh...they were calling harris the anti-christ and claim the left wants to kill them
It's just silly and short-sighted and disqualifying!
Bob, the person, can have whatever views he wants, but Bob, the reporter, absolutely must accurately give them their proper weight and significance - or he simply is failing at his job!
I remember people making fun of Biden for giving that preserving democracy speech in Philly and then every insurrectionist secretary of state candidate going down in the swing states.
It’s an anecdotal thing, but. I’ve had 5 or 6 friends who are not political types ask me if I’m voting. All are women and all motivated by Dobbs (though they may not know the case name). I hope this is happening to everyone
Someone (can’t remember who) was saying that in terms of analyzing the early vote, 2016 might be more instructive. Simply because we were in Covid in 2020
There were a lot more blue states then. Early voting is new in a lot of states (in MO, for instance.)
Iirc, Obama had a numbers guy who worked out exactly what precincts they needed to get in each state. Hopefully Kamala has been doing the same. That kind of thing doesn't show up in polls.
in 2008 I worked the Obama primary campaign for a moment and yes, we had very precise areas to go to, places to be that were important just to the primary.
putting people in the weak spots who are from those weak spots works.
not pissing off half of all r AND d voters in the country works too.
Based on every special election abortion seems to be the single biggest motivating factor for voters and looking at political journalists you’d think it ranked somewhere between wokeness and the Bud Light ad campaign
If it’s anything like the lead up to the 2022 election, we’ll see headlines like “Dem Focus on abortion and not young men, was the story of this election”, if Harris were to lose.
I think that’s because one party just really doesn’t want to talk about them. (Its politicians don’t talk about them and voters don’t list them as important issues.) So, it’s hard to do “balanced” reporting about them.
I have never seen my wife so angry than when Roe was overturned. And I've never been so angry over anything than seeing sore-loser assholes getting violent and trying to take my vote away on Jan. 6. And I'm angry that Donald ran again, was nominated, and is so close behind Harris. Pure rage here.
I'm always interested in the intersection between socioeconomic class and race. If the spaces these ppl live their lives in were really diverse, would they see things as they do. Like how can you see ppl storming your Capitol to stop the certification of your president and not think that is BFD?
that's the thing and it's weird to me, because my parents were fairly firm republicans since like the 90s. They switched to biden in 2020 and jan 6 kind of solidified that.
A lot of normie voters took jan 6 to heart and it's weird that the media doesn't reflect that.
What those two things have in common is that they were very serious ruptures with the status quo, and contemporary political journalism is built on the notion that nothing really matters or means anything
This is the correct answer. For top "political" journalists, everything is social status, and they are the gossipers in charge. They ultimately aren't even really concerned about notions of societal collapse, because in their minds they'll be the fancy people in the Hunger Games' Capital District.
Continued "stability" means they were right about everything yesterday and will be again tomorrow
I often remember @chrislhayes.bsky.social trying to sound the alarm (so obviously rightly) when the plague started and it was as if he were yelling in Esperanto
2016 was the first major rupture of three: the appearance of Trump and Birtherism motivating the undervoting demo of non-college educated to in fact vote, thus blindsiding the pollsters.
Any guess as to why this nihilism is so common among political media? You don't see it in every beat, but Politics and entertainment seem to overwhelming act that way.
I think it's unironically a class issue to a degree. Legacy media is gatekept in a way that it's mostly a profession for people who already have wealth or connections. Many issues don't affect them (or at least they think that), so it's easy to play them down or even genuinely underestimate them.
Monopolization and the requirement for that revenue line to constantly be going up. At a certain point there’s no way to make the line go up without figuring out a way to pander to every single person on the planet. Unfortunately for them, there’s no way to pander to both fascists and their targets.
I just can’t understand how it came to pass that a blowhard reality TV guy who didn’t know anything about government and openly hated a lot of people got elected…
yeah. unless it's a story that somebody has already come up with a way to tell, or continues a story that was previously shown to draw attention / lead to ad revenue, or is a story that somebody with a bunch of foundation money or elite relationships wants to start telling, etc
it's wild that nobody has managed to encapsulate as an object of public consciousness what ending abortion rights means for uterus-havers, existentially. who in mainstream view has walked through for the normies how without abortion rights a uterus becomes an incredibly risky thing to have?
i guess the body horror angle resonates for a lot of ppl. but that angle isn't abortion-exclusive like: do people w/ uteruses get to decide the shape of their lives? or is there going to be essentially 1 path they're all at risk of getting permanently teleported to at any time?
Hi! I'm a current sociologist. A partial explanation is they are just as enclosed in their own bubble (other journos) as other groups - so they constantly reinforce and amplify their own biases.
This is definitely related to the 'sports-media-ification' of political news - ESPN benefits from the fact that, normally, no one dies if one team beats another
I get that Dobbs itself isn't news, but part of the issue on abortion is that it's ongoing and every day to half of the population. It's not just a thing that happened, it's a thing happening every moment of every day.
Yes. As soon as Dobbs was decided, we knew people were about to start dying. And they are—dying, suffering permanent injury, suffering, terrorized, forced to bear children they can't afford, forced to stay with abusers.
Entire ob-gyn departments are closing as doctors give up.
This is what happens when you're untouched by any of this shit personally. Everything looks like a game. There's a reason Nate Silver was lauded when he translated his expertise on sports numbers to politics. But it's NOT the same. Silver never got this and neither do way too many of these peo-MEN.
Yes, it’s the everything issue. Healthcare, women’s rights, family care, finances. Women are dying, people’s wives, sisters, nieces are dying in parking lots due to miscarriages. It is sinful & outrageous & backwards. It can not stand.
Truth is, the great majority of what Trump did never impacted most voters -- it's either inside baseball corruption, or just more afflicting the afflicted.
Everyone in America is either affected by Dobbs or knows someone who is, and this isn't changing.
Also, he was stymied internally from doing many of the terrible things he wanted to do, and so the low-information voters think 'he wasn't that bad, it's just talk'
But everyone *saw* him attempt the coup on live tv. Swing state voters knew he attempted to take their vote away
They’re intrigued by the “young men turning to Trump” stories over abortion and J6 because it has an air of Dems are to blame. That framing allows them to go to their safe place of both sides story telling.
They are also obsessed with relative party registration numbers and ignoring GOP-Dem crossovers. You can bet if Harris wins but party registration seems like it should have favoured Trump then you will get court cases using this as “evidence” of cheating.
I have been saying this over and over again all year.
Every poll since Dobbs has undercounted Democrats.
Democrats have overperformed in every election since Dobbs
i also wonder if any of the pollsters significantly adjusted their "likely voter" model after harris took over because i don't think it's the same people
What specifically drives that though? Is it just rank misogyny in the case of abortion? Downplaying Jan 6. seems like a classic neutral ideology thing.
I do think that admitting that there are stakes in general and people have real skin in the game makes it hard to be savvy. So the neutral thing. Plus misogyny.
In addition to the "it's a women's issue" misogyny I think there's an (incorrect, also more misogyny) perception that abortion is inherently kind of shameful and it's impolite to imply that some voters are actually in favor of things you think are bad.
I'm additionally aggravated by the seeming need for everyone to discuss "innocent little ladies who wanted a baby" being hurt- talk like that is how we fuckin got here
people have a right to choose to NOT WANT TO BE PREGNANT. for any reason.
I mean, it's fine to discuss the ones who wanted a baby! But they shouldn't be the exclusive focus of the discussion. If you never want kids but you get pregnant, your decision to abort is just as valid as that of a married woman with a wanted pregnancy gone very wrong.
Women understand that Dobbs is about more than a medical procedure. It's about recognizing a woman's bodily autonomy. A gov't that doesn't is less likely to care about a woman's rights in regard to sexual assault, sexual harassment, and gender equality. I don't think the political press gets that.
A lot of men do care about abortion, but abstractly, while believing nobody else really does that much because they deep down don’t or just can’t understand its visceral immediacy to a huge portion of the population (not all of whom are even women)
I am assuming that there's a lot of women and 3d6 other social groups of races, religions, and creeds quietly seething and seeing no reason to correct some yokel reporter from the Daily Storm about it.
yes! everyone, including pollsters, has been behaving for the last few years like politics has been frozen in amber since dec 2020 and it is bizarre and revealing imo
it's also pretty wild not to see anyone seriously talk about the fact that a likely significant number of 2020 Trump voters have died of COVID since then, because of their disproportionate anti-vax attitudes
And for additional confusion, we have a very hinky return and confirmation rate on the 2020 Census, thanks to Covid and the Trump Administration's interference.
A genuine question I've got is: older voters favored Trump; they'd have died over 4 years of all causes more frequently than younger voters. Do voters "age into" voting Trump (or Republicans in general) in a way that replaces them? Or was that a generational thing?
I don’t have a statistical answer, but while it seems that common wisdom is wrong and people don’t automatically get more conservative as they age, older voters DO vote in much higher numbers, so you kinda get existing conservatives aging into *voting itself.*
Gen X trends pretty conservative (to my intense annoyance as a liberal GenXer) so we’ve still got a chunk of conservatives lined up to fill into the older demographic as the Boomers die out.
And as a fellow liberal GenXer, I do not get it. Not that my cohort should be automatically awesome, but conservative GenXers and I have lived through a lot of similar events (global and national) and reached vastly different conclusions.
also the Silent Generation (I think they're called) is fairly anti Trump and sadly dying out now. Most of the studies I've seen show the biggest Trump support in Boomers and sadly yeah Gen X and amongst the young and male Z. Millenials are a vast reservoir of Trump hate
Older folks (other than white men) seem to be voting for Harris, or saying they will, in higher numbers than usual. Maybe it's because the usual Trump voters have died? I hadn't thought of that!
Only one data point, but I've gone more to the left as I've aged (I'm a boomer). A couple of my friends in their 70s have quit the GOP over the last decade, but that's more because the party moved right than then moving left.
Also four years ago there was no vaccine available yet, of course voting patterns are going to be different now regarding EV vs. mail vs. Election Day but CW seems to be measuring against a 2020 baseline and cheering or dooming accordingly
There were three houses in our neighborhood who had trump signs/flags up for the last two elections. Two of them took their signs down shortly after he lost to Biden, and the third one took down his signs and flags on Jan. 6th. None of them have signs or flags this time around.
Yes, so many people are affected even if they don’t talk about it. Having been pushed into delivering a stillbirth while living in Texas, I afterwards discovered how many people I knew had had miscarriages or trouble conceiving.
I was unable to access abortion when I was a teen, and the number of women who have endured a forced pregnancy is way bigger than most people realize.
there's a whole lot of us with experiences like yours and mine.
MD has an abortion rights amendment on the ballot and no one has asked Hogan about it even though it’s an easy test of how pro-choice he actually is. The Post’s MD reporter did an AMA yesterday and showed no interest in it. It’s completely illogical unless they WANT to keep it out of the convo
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What confuses me is it seemed like the lowest of low hanging fruit. So many off-year elections in Kansas, Ohio, etc showed red state citizens showing up in droves to vote to protect their rights. Did the pollsters think the issue was settled? There was real-world proof - not just prognosticating.
For right-wing and center-right pundits, the notion of women wanting to punish republicans for republican decisions is so infuriating and humiliating that it can't be considered.
I think this take is on point & it reminds me of a memory my partner shared with me about something that once happened to her, way before we met. She was briefly married to a psycho, and that's a generous description of him. She said he came home one night while she was folding laundry & he 1/2
2/2 started wailing away on her. They fought all the way to the kitchen where she got hold of a knife. She stabbed him to make him stop (it barely drew blood since it was through his coat) but he was shocked! that she might actually do HIM harm. She said that moment infuriated her even more.
don't worry we shall punish them next, women still to this day make the majority of budget and spending decisions in a household - including subscription fees
Political journalists don’t know how to navigate “unbiased” journalism when one candidate is actually unacceptably ineligible. Presenting the truth would be indistinguishable from endorsing Harris, so they maintain a pantomime of what an election between sane candidates would look like
Actually, it's more the fun combination with Restless Leg Syndrome, or as we now call it thanks to @bitterkarella.bsky.social, the Intangible Squirms. I'm allowed one caffeine drink a day, and that'll stop once I go on ADHD meds.
Final college semester:
Writing major research paper on Mao for killer World History course & had heard instructor didn’t really read much, sometimes just weighed them, so finished it but also left about 10 draft pages in the middle. (He caught me. NBD. Got a B)
There were rumors like this about a professor at my college but they turned out to be true. My friend wrote a plausible first page and then 12 sheets of Pink Floyd lyrics and got a B. He kept telling me I was wasting my time writing actual essays but I didn't have it in me to bullshit.
In high school I had an AP Biology teacher who literally couldn't be bothered to do anything, so once for an assignment I just wrote nonsense but also, "it doesn't matter what I write, you don't read it anyway." I too got a B, but that was because I got bored and drew a dragon on the back it
I was running a little thin on a term paper once, it had a min page length. Word for Windows 1.0 just came out, had it installed at home (rare then). I learned how to set the font/spacing to pad it out. I also got caught. Tried arguing page count was right, they were having none of it.
I admit to having used the "can't remember where I read that detail, so I'll put in a random citation on the assumption that nobody will check it" dodge.
Esp Jan. 6 because it means they actually have to do follow-up work on naming the leaders and why these insurrectionists are skating away with no consequences.
I would like a better understanding of why this is. Why does so much of the media leadership class apparently think they'll thrive under fascism? These are not stupid people, and yet the practical calculus makes no sense.
I see it as a mix of issues. Some journalists -- real ones -- don't think that, but they're stuck in their jobs. Some "access" journalists think themselves savvy and close, and will end up at the Ministry of Propaganda, so they'll be safe. And the billionaire owners just want to be the new nobility.
Ah, but you see, I'll be the smart oligarch and that definitely won't happen to m... *Sounds of being zipped up into a duffle bag and beaten with pipes*
Not even you making them mad. Any time an authoritarian fails at something, if there's no more convenient patsy then the mafia will surely take the hit.
Control of the free press is part of fascism and the media leadership class has already been replaced. It started when they were buying up media sites and decimating newsrooms, cleaning house of independent thinkers and becoming engagement farms and then disinformation factories. They are thriving
A big problem here is that we have, societally, fallen into this idea that there are smart people and stupid people. And certain skills or talents that can be used to separate the smart people from the stupid people. If you can write or speak well, you get into the smart person category.
But writing or speaking well doesn't translate to having other skills or talents. One is not universally a smart person because they can write, or do math, or do surgery, or whatever. In fact, in other areas those people are often quite stupid.
So it is no surprise that someone who is smart about writing or editing is also morally stupid enough to endorse fascism or historically stupid enough to think it will turn out well for them. They just aren't connected abilities. There aren't smart people. Just assorted ways to be stupid.
And that's why it matters that the news industry has cratered. There are some good journalists, but it's not a field that many people can afford to pursue any more
stupid is as stupid does. if your "smarts" are based on knowing how to work a very narrow and particular system--performing well on academic tests and papers that don't require any personal skin in the game, even penalizing it--and come from an enbubbled background, you'll have those blinders on.
many of them aren't stupid in the way you'd normally expect
what they have is enabler brain
there are types of people who take the side of an abuser in every situation, doesn't matter why, doesn't matter if they met them, and they aren't even directly evil themselves, it's like a cognitive exploit
This is a big one. They're creatures of what they perceive to be the status quo. And the status quo in their minds is that Republicans are fine if a little cruder under Trump. That's empirically untrue but that's what they've embraced.
I do think that if you've been insulated from certain experiences (like being oppressed), it's impossible to understand or imagine personally experiencing any negative consequences from fascism
“So, talking off the record with Stephen Miller last night? He said there are going to be these special Freedom Resort Camps, totally luxe, and like, all expenses paid for friends of the admin. Said I was absolutely, that was his exact word, absolutely, at the top of the list.”
A lot of them made a shitload of money under Joe Biden too, which they even admit in their more honest moments. Wanting Trump back so badly is about more than that for them.
It's because they still think the underlying structure of democracy is sacrosanct and that they are always going to be free to "play" with political discourse. Underlying all of it is the belief that "it can't happen here". Basically, hubris.
As well as the wannabe Voice of the Regieme types, you have a lot more people who *think* they're indispensable to a Trump dictatorship. They'll get to be nobility, and their enemies and annoyances will get the camps.
99% of them are in for a rude shock. But they haven't worked that out yet.
There are many types of stupidity... Most of them have never known hardship or danger. Many are spoiled nepo babies. To them, a Soviet gulag is less believable than a Marvel movie.
I feel like this is a variant on the "only Dems have agency". These are two things that Republicans have done that their own voters are upset about. But that can't be right - only Democratic voters get mad at their party's actions. Republicans just fall in line
So it must not matter
I think you might be onto something there, it makes it 'too easy' to pick the right side. Trump is cartoonishly evil and it's like they're trying to find a deeper layer.
It is very apparent who thinks Dobbs is a women’s issue and therefore not a *real* issue.
I think a lot of folks who consider themselves political experts were not able to fit Jan 6 into their usual narrative so it just disappeared from their minds.
Agree. My daughter is a 19 yr old first time voter and I wonder if polls are surmising enough turnout of her cohort due to Dobbs. Or women in general. Or black women supporting Harris
And to the extent they are recognized, I think it’s still understated. Abortion isn’t simply about young women on college campuses.
There are millions of women over the age of 50, who don’t want their granddaughters to have less rights than they did, who I think will turn out big for Harris.
plenty of women who already have children have abortions, too. I think it's estimated to be about half, if not more. because sometimes you have children you already love and care about and you can't afford to have another one.
(half of abortion-seeking patients have had children, I mean. not that half of women with children have abortions. I just realized that was ambiguous.)
I think it's bigger for us older women because most of us have been pregnant, we know the risks. When I was 20 it had never occurred to me that you could die of pregnancy in a modern world.
I’m in a very red part of Missouri, and we have an abortion amendment on the ballot. You wouldn’t believe how many older people (mostly grandmas but some grandpas) get on and comment that they’re voting yes because they’re mad as hell their grandkids are losing rights.
Average GOP only thinks of themselves. Can't truly believe women wouldn't stop caring when it's no longer an issue for their own body. Wiiiiild. (Also, stooooopid.)
The biggest blindspot is their talking nonchalantly about an election that has existential implications for all as if it’s a sports game. They can do it because they think they’ll be fine no matter what, the assholes.
abortion is extremely significant, because it can drive turnout and crossover voting. Jan. 6 - Harris long ago picked up every vote there was to be had on it, and it mainly hits educated, civically engaged and therefore already-high-turnout voters, so no real vote boost potential.
I spent my whole life supporting abortion care and access, and Dobbs cannot stand. It has galvanized the women I know (in rural Wisconsin!) and we are all voting. But since I’m not hanging out in diners watching Fox News, my opinions don’t matter to pundits.
most pundits *still* frame nearly everything Trump/the GOP does around "will this erode trump's base?", with the answer they usually fall on being "no", at which point they dismiss the thing as insignificant
the strange thing is that this *will* erode some of that base. racist old women who don't want their granddaughter knocked up? they are sitting this one out at least.
They don’t want them to be bc if they are then they should be talked about and faced up to. But we can’t have difficult frank discussions in the media. Have to pander to the both sides society.
The fact that people keep overlooking Dobbs absolutely blows my mind. Harris has explicitly made abortion rights a central part of her campaign and reminds people that Dobbs was Trump's doing at every opportunity. You can't hack away the rights of half the population and expect no pushback!
I am convinced it's much more fundamental than that. They took away a right that women had. Women do not like that. I think it's as simple as that. I will never need an abortion but I am still incandescently, personally furious two years later.
I have not thought of it this way. I believe you’re correct. An established right was taken away, and Americans as a people really do not like losing a right that they had. I always believed (well, always in adulthood) in and supported that right, but this wasn’t *my* right stripped from *me.*
Same. At my age, pregnancy is unlikely, and I can afford to fly to Canada or wherever I need to go to abort, but I’m furious for all the women and girls who can’t. Republicans do not comprehend empathy, so of course they underestimate how detrimental their position on abortion is.
I mean, media talks all the time about how white dudes are mad about other demographics catching up so they don’t have as much privilege as they used to. But this — half the country actually losing rights — gets ignored.
Exactly. They went after the sisterhood and expect us to not react? And not just that, but they keep telling us about all the other rights they will target next…
I'm so tired of being angry. I just want to go days/weeks without thinking and seeing the absolute worst of people and worrying about what the next horrible thing will be. The DREAD we all lived with from Nov 2016- Jan 2021 was brutal.
Exactly this! I am also pretty unlikely to ever need an abortion myself (although technically possible), but FUCK DOBBS!!
I am doing this for everyone I know—and everyone I don’t know—who may need an abortion (or any other care), but I’m equally driven by my own burning furious rage and outrage. 😤🤬
Exactly. Women are furious and determined. I've watched a lot of Harris/Walz rallies and the lines about reproductive freedom get some of the biggest applause, if not *the* biggest.
US women had been denied the right to own their own bodies & make their own reproductive/medical decisions forever, up until the 1970s. We were denied the right to vote until the 1920s. We've only had human rights for a short period of time. We're going back to being property. I'm f-ing enraged. 🤬
Yes! I have never wanted to have a child. I’ve been terrified of it since I was a child, so I didn’t have one. It’s that simple, and to watch women who want to have children, being forced to wait for life saving services is fucking infuriating!
This right here is it - and it's wild consider the 2A crowd has made this their argument ("Libs want to take away a right") and the media gives it solemn respect but when an actual right is taken away it barely registers as something that (rightfully) will have a generational impact on politics.
The trouble with these sorts is that it's far too easy for them to fall back on a specious "but abortion wasn't in the Bill of Rights" position. With finger in their ears while murmuring "la-la-la-la cant hear you", any facts won't break the bubble they're in.
And no one thinks they’re gonna stop there. It’s just a game of stripping women of rights until a patriarchy is fully re-established, and they even tell us this. It’s not even subtle or hidden.
There are a lot of men that don't realize women regard themselves as human beings, rather than property. Men are human, so they get the right to make their own medical decisions & own their own bodies. Why is it so hard for them to understand woman are also human? And why don't ALL women agree?
Huh, I have to admit, as a non-expert, I assumed a large pro-Roe turnout was already baked-into the models. I assumed that was the reason it's not talked about so much in terms of the race.
Did not realize experts were talking down its actual effect.
Simon Rosenberg is just one guy and he’s Pollyanna, but he’s been one of the only people correctly noting that there has been a Democratic overperformance of polls since Dobbs, indicating it’s being ignored.
I was in WV a few weeks ago and I saw about as many Harris yard signs as I did Trump. Granted, I was near Charleston, so a blue area in the state, but still.
At the South Jersey beach I go to every summer (same one where Alito has his vacation house) I saw noticeably fewer Trump flags and signs this year than before.
Same experience in IL. Same drive in 16 and 20 had trumps signs at a much higher percentage. Even dropping the kid at college had a much lower incidence of Trump signs and that was through IN, KY, TN and NC. I am cautiously optimistic
He's another micro point. A very conservative area between me and parent's home has several Harris signs. I never saw any Biden signs. There are also fewer Trump signs than even a few months ago
The very vocal magas are still out, but moderate Rs are very quiet.
I'm from Chicago originally and live in Detroit area, so drive down 94 fairly frequently. Saw 3 billboards for Harris plus some huge signs on a farmland property facing the highway. Did not see that in 2020 or 2016.
Anecdotal, but gave me hope.
I can confirm; I was just in Columbia and Greene Counties and it struck me how many places that you’d expect to have Trump signs-I’m talking junk in the yard, thin blue line, confederate battle flag stuff - just didn’t. Same observation in rural Delaware and Maryland earlier this year.
There’s still a decent amount on Long Island’s South Shore, but this is basically the spiritual heartland of Trumpism. And people do tell me it’s noticeably less than the previous cycles too.
Abortion is still considered - despite all evidence - a women’s (especially young women) issue and therefore not a Real Issue by many pundits and reporters.
Abortion is MORE of an issue to me as a person with childbearing capabilities in my 40s, who actually recently had a child. If I got pregnant now, after the way my last pregnancy fucked with my health—the odds are really not on my side!
I keep seeing articles that just…skip any mention of sex differences in early voting as if it doesn’t matter when it is absolutely going to be a factor possibly a deciding one
Honestly curious on WHY that is a blind spot. I have no proof but I suspect the polling cross tabs and the actual turn out numbers on women even in early voting just aren't matching. While it is not assured a woman will vote for Harris it's clearly a larger trend so... seems important
They treat October 6 2023 and the Palestine Genocide as bigger deals in the polls metrics in my opinion. While those are important issues Americans in general just don't vote on international events as a primary motivator
I might be wrong, but the same "centerward" pressures that lead these writers to privilege right-wing junk claims might also militate against treating horrific events as transformational
absolutely wild to me that any media professional wouldn't immediately assume abortion to be one of *the* main factors of the election, but then again there's been a whole lot of unserious ass-showing in the industry this cycle!
They said for years the Court would not actually overturn Roe, no matter who was appointed to it. But now that it happened, since they were wrong about it, they have to pretend that it doesn't actually matter.
If you zoom out two clicks further you begin to see their blindspots on wealth inequality and climate. Suddenly you don't just see blindspots but blackout curtains over the ability to discuss the difficult issues of the world as they are.
100%. They spend their energy paddling the shallow “non-partisan” waters of the news cycle so they want that to be what matters. Not seismic substantive issues where they would be required to report one side is deeply unpopular and has been the whole time they breathlessly covered the horse race.
Appreciate your grounded takes! You're my Waffle House for the election: as long as you're calm and providing clear information, it's like a Waffle House remaining open before a storm; if you start to panic it'll be like Waffle House closing meaning the coming storm (election) will be devastating
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And J6 is also likely to do that, ESPECIALLY among Latinos
And yes, the media doesn't want to touch either with a 40 foot barge pole
PS: She's been right when others were completely wrong.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IL7m6FQie7A&t=254s
Projection of assumed knowledge AND assumed reaction to that knowledge.
it will never go away. our bodies don't let us forget.
Washington Post: 60 year old male billionaire
LA Times: 72 yo male billionaire
Chicago Tribune: 82 yo male billionaire
Boston Globe: 75 yo male billionaire
Minnesota Star Tribune: 83 yo male billionaire
Wall Street Journal, NY Post, and Fox: 93 yo male billionaire
But surely consolidation of news media in the hands of old, obscenely rich, men isn't impacting coverage of *checks notes*
Abortion restrictions mobilization of women
Also this is the first election January 6 is an issue but Dobbs was years ago. It should be built into the models by now.
And neither happened.
the abortion issue means they are NOT leaving us in peace but actively harming us every single day we are alive.
https://opportunityagenda.org/messaging_reports/crime-is-increasing-or-decreasing/
Adding to this, while the "jokes" at MSG have gotten their due time and analysis, uh...they were calling harris the anti-christ and claim the left wants to kill them
Bob, the person, can have whatever views he wants, but Bob, the reporter, absolutely must accurately give them their proper weight and significance - or he simply is failing at his job!
Yet pollsters keep using 2020 modeling. Sigh.
The crosstabs I've looked at show they're over representing men. Women were already voting more than men before Dobbs!
Iirc, Obama had a numbers guy who worked out exactly what precincts they needed to get in each state. Hopefully Kamala has been doing the same. That kind of thing doesn't show up in polls.
putting people in the weak spots who are from those weak spots works.
not pissing off half of all r AND d voters in the country works too.
I'm not sure what happened to the number crunchers in Clinton's case. I've always had the feeling she had some internal saboteurs in that dept.
https://www.newsweek.com/kansas-poll-donald-trump-kamala-harris-1976420
After Kamala takes office, we can argue and litigate every other issue.
A lot of normie voters took jan 6 to heart and it's weird that the media doesn't reflect that.
I often remember @chrislhayes.bsky.social trying to sound the alarm (so obviously rightly) when the plague started and it was as if he were yelling in Esperanto
Always refighting the war they lost.....
feels tellable. idk.
Entire ob-gyn departments are closing as doctors give up.
Everyone in America is either affected by Dobbs or knows someone who is, and this isn't changing.
But everyone *saw* him attempt the coup on live tv. Swing state voters knew he attempted to take their vote away
Every poll since Dobbs has undercounted Democrats.
Democrats have overperformed in every election since Dobbs
All the years of "safe, legal and rare" did us no favors.
people have a right to choose to NOT WANT TO BE PREGNANT. for any reason.
I mean, it's fine to discuss the ones who wanted a baby! But they shouldn't be the exclusive focus of the discussion. If you never want kids but you get pregnant, your decision to abort is just as valid as that of a married woman with a wanted pregnancy gone very wrong.
https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/covid-19/political-party-affiliation-linked-excess-covid-deaths
there's a whole lot of us with experiences like yours and mine.
I've had some of the most awful conversations of my life trying to reach him
Thank you! 🙏🥹
https://gofund.me/41f9548c
Writing major research paper on Mao for killer World History course & had heard instructor didn’t really read much, sometimes just weighed them, so finished it but also left about 10 draft pages in the middle. (He caught me. NBD. Got a B)
THAT kinda energy
Lots of men are pissed about abortion access being restricted. As they should be.
I would guess that is driving a ton of turnout whether the polls show it or not. Also lots of people hate Trump and are sick of his shit.
obvious true things get short shrift because of the demand to tell readers things they don’t know
[citation needed]
what they have is enabler brain
there are types of people who take the side of an abuser in every situation, doesn't matter why, doesn't matter if they met them, and they aren't even directly evil themselves, it's like a cognitive exploit
I think we're seeing - and have been seeing - the rise of the oligarchy, ever since the high marginal tax rates of the post war era were reduced.
This time Trump will have people willing to arrest and try journalists and use the government to go after the media though.
99% of them are in for a rude shock. But they haven't worked that out yet.
It’s a certain kind of delusion.
So it must not matter
I think a lot of folks who consider themselves political experts were not able to fit Jan 6 into their usual narrative so it just disappeared from their minds.
"...I already do."
"No, I mean, *real* politics."
There are millions of women over the age of 50, who don’t want their granddaughters to have less rights than they did, who I think will turn out big for Harris.
I mean, media talks all the time about how white dudes are mad about other demographics catching up so they don’t have as much privilege as they used to. But this — half the country actually losing rights — gets ignored.
It’s a right that two generations have held, built their lives around.
The audacity of Trump and SCOTUS to take it away is appalling and everyone should vote accordingly.
I am doing this for everyone I know—and everyone I don’t know—who may need an abortion (or any other care), but I’m equally driven by my own burning furious rage and outrage. 😤🤬
"I don't know, I feel like they're focusing too much on abortion"
Did not realize experts were talking down its actual effect.
I mean—Kansas. Hello!
https://bsky.app/profile/petedavidsonny.bsky.social/post/3l7tallvb7c24
The very vocal magas are still out, but moderate Rs are very quiet.
Anecdotal, but gave me hope.
Not doubting you, btw.
I showed that there's a 12 pt gender gap in MI, and a 13(!) pt gap in PA.
I was like... do you think those Republican women that are showing up in massive numbers are voting for Trump?
Many red states are suffering disproportionately due to climate change while MAGA makes the discussion of climate change illegal.
If making half of America breeding slaves and supporting insurrection aren't big deals with the voters then maybe they are off the hook.
Didn't the Catholic Church try that & how did that work out for them? 🙄