So many post-election takes are just like “this proves the importance of the shit I was already on about” so I’m curious - is there anything you’ve changed your mind about because of the election?
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Here’s mine: it’s a marginal issue, but I thought the unrealized capital gains proposal was a well crafted policy and it polls well when explained, but the complexity made it too easy to fear monger. A wealth tax is probably worse policy, but easier to message so we should run on that instead.
It's so frustrating cause I don't have a college degree and didn't know what it was so you know what I did? I looked into it..same with energy and all the other stuff I didn't understand
Sorry you didn't offend me.. im a caregiver, im proud of my life.. but it's annoying that other people don't do look into things as well and they just yell without knowing what they're yelling about. I can debunk things in a minutes a lot of times.
59% of Americans can’t read beyond a sixth-grade level. This means, for example, that they can’t read an essay explaining tropical storm formation and why hurricanes, cyclones, and typhoons are the same thing but in different parts of the world, and understand that will enough to be tested on it.
Income from when you sell an asset is classified as ordinary or capital depending on the asset. Capital assets generally have a reduced rate for individuals and other characteristics. I am not giving you tax advice.
For how little tax policy is of topic in regular conversations, I still find myself explaining progressive/marginal tax rates to people at least 1-2 times a year.
For years I had a cardboard box, where I plotted out the overall taxation on incomes up to $500,000 if you include one or both halves of the payroll taxes. Did it when I first had to pay self-employment tax, and I was pissed about what that chart showed me.
Having grown up around a lot of doctors, I can confirm that conservatism has won a near-total ideological victory over many of them. You could tell them how progressive taxation works every day of their lives and they still would never “know” it.
As a union officer I helped bargain a large (~10k/person) lump sum payment for our members and had to field a ton of questions from people who were worried they were going to get a huge tax bill. Just over and over again trying to figure out the most respectful way to say “I’m sorry but that’s fake”
They're not smart. As evidenced by the election. It was obvious that propaganda combined with voter suppression worked in 2016. 2024 is just a majority of US citizens being bigoted idiots.
Uneducated is uneducated, doesn’t inherently mean someone isn’t smart. Just means they didn’t have the access for one reason or another. In other words, I think your wording was fine.
It’s really a reflection on the US’ classism, poverty, and educational system more than anything else.
It's capitalism. That's the issue. Unmitigated wealth transfer from the working class to the capital class through privatized services, corporate subsidies, tax cuts, and so on. They want you tired, hungry, and ignorant so you're easily exploited. It works like a charm.
Yep, and I even think that Kamala saying the 🍊 one was a fascist needed to come with a explanation, cause most people just thought she was name calling like he was, when most of his campaign was textbook fascism! Sigh!
Those are really difficult for startups/private companies because they have valuations so you have "wealth" but you can't actually sell it. Easy to get taxes more than 100% of your income
Biden's was better than Harris's. It was seven percent higher than hers. Bro-in-law Tony West cut it to get huge campaign donations from Wall St and Silicon Valley.
Before the election season I would make excuses for Trump voters. They weren't smart, they are being mislead, journalism is failing them. But now I feel Trump is so obviously unfit for office that no civic minded person with a baseline of moral character would be voting for him.
“We’re not talking about residences or single family farms, and we won’t apply the tax under $5 million in other assets” isn’t too complicated for people to hear as a rebuttal, at least I think not…
This is kind of an offshoot but about policy in general. Policy has to be judged on marketability as much as the letter of the law. The merits of a bill can be monumental but people aren’t going to find that out for themselves
“You thought the unrealized capital gains proposal was well-crafted? That’s like thinking a ‘what are we?’ text is a solid relationship strategy—confusing, risky, and bound to end badly. #TaxingTakes #DatingFails”
Better yet, run on a “wealth tax” but implement it as the unrealized capital gains. Since nothing matters but vibes, just call things whatever polls well. It only needs to have a tenuous connection to the actual proposal as long as the proposal, once implemented, would be popular.
I forget where I heard it, but someone suggested a slightly different policy of taxing "partially realized capital gains." The main example being using unrealized gains as collateral for a loan. That said, boy do we ever need a wealth tax.
My big takeaway is that Republicans are always proposing really simple solutions, and promising that they will solve everything. And this is very popular and effective.
True; but they - Trump in particular - may actually believe they're simple. A lot of the electorate certainly does, and doesn't look further than the surface.
I don't know how we fix this, but it's a real problem.
Simple solutions
1. Mass deportations of non white immigrants
2. Cut taxes for corporations and wealthy.
3. Slap the residual revenue burden or working class.
4. Increase white population by forcing women to have children.
5. Turn the country into a full blown Oligarchy.
Please add more
So Trump offered no solutions and no policies. He relied entirely on appealing to low propensity voters which is politician speak for the dregs of the earth.
This is where people keep getting it wrong, though. He did offer policy – mass deportation is policy; tariffs are policy; ending birthright citizenship is policy. Simplistic policy that blame others instead of taking ownership, but still policy.
Agree, and without regard for actually doing anything about it. More about the message that was sent and connecting to the needs of the very small amount of consequential voters available
It's upside is easier to sell. Unrealized capital gains tax means nothing to the average person, while a wealth tax is hiking taxes on the top 5%, which most people are on board with.
Is it taxing unrealized gains is easier to say will destroy the economy than taxing wealth? Or people think taxing unrealized gains was going to tax them but they don't have wealth to tax?
Not sure where you are going with that, perhaps it would be better to stick with the meaning of the comment. Twisting it for your own purposes misses the mark
I think unrealized cap gains and a wealth tax are seemingly incompatible with culture here.
I knew inflation was bad for incumbents but it seems like it’s actual existential poison. I feel like as an incumbent you’d rather the fed sacrifice unemployment to maintain low inflation.
As a North Carolinian I was surprised at the sheer amount of ticket splitting. There's apparently a larger calculus among some voters that differentiates what they see as federal impacts from local ones and I didn't really believe that before
it’s the type of messenger you become, what to transmit past a “message”/ policy. only then back the data, the proposal - message comes out of that, from the candidate. your consultant is the editor, not the writer.
A wealth tax is great. But you run on that concept and include the key part of LOWERING taxes for those “not wealthy” and now you actually have something they understand.
Good policies are good but keep it simple. Keep the unrealized capital gains tax but keep the message simple. “Tax the rich.” That’s it, brag about how you’re gonna make the rich scream. Win the power then work on the details.
Wealth tax is nigh on impossible to explain without it sounding fairly sinister. And incredibly easy to counter against, in particular when outright lying about those it will apply to. How about concentrating on buy borrow die and taxing that as income rather than the underlying assets?
The broader message from this is something I've come around to after this election: Better messaging at the expense of worse policy is a tradeoff worth making in most cases.
Exactly. Also, a campaign slogan can be turned into policy later and 75% of ppl won't know the difference.
They are not going to hold Trump to deporting 12 million undocumented or 60% tariffs on China (100% on Mexico). He might do it anyway because he's a moron but he could easily walk those back.
I generally don't think that picking a tax fight with "zerich" is wise, probably too much electoral downstream trouble to help the +/- working class that will not appreciate the help
Call the unrealized capital gain tax a "wealth tax". Someone mentioned what we need are some good old consumer product marketing types to sell our policies and party. Starting to agree.
I think this a lot, too, but then I realize that the second a Democratic candidate started lying a significant amount of the time, the media will be all over them in ways they would never be with a Republican candidate, i.e. the dates of Walz's honeymoon trip
I'm all for a more steeply progressive tax code, but isn't taxing unrealized gains crazy, unfair, eat-the-rich silliness? Maximum confusion and complexity for minimal revenue?
I think one area where we messaged well was calling tariffs a "national sales tax." It's not exactly true, but it's conceptually close-enough and a lot easier to understand.
It didn’t quite work well enough because you can see plenty of Trump voters finally understanding what a tariff was *after* the election, but it was a good attempt.
We come up with good policy that suck as populist slogans. We need to focus less on policy specifics and more on branding a message that lands progressive values as populist.
We don't have to govern as populists but we need to brand as working class populists.
I think this is true and all, but the real reason Harris lost is the dems have been in neutral as a national party for 5 decades whereas trump is a very very different option going in a very very different direction. Even if that direction is taking a hammer to everything, it’s an end to status quo
I shit you not … I was in a bar right before the election listening to a bunch of “working class whites” complain about the unrealized capital gains tax and how the dems would tax their houses if they increased in value even if they didn’t sell them 🙄
I saw this nonsense on Facebook too many times from my so called “intellectual” Trumper friends 🙄 the fact check flag definitely lagged and Trumpers don’t trust fact check warnings anyway
1) Because it's too easy to make it sound like it's going to be a yearly tax on people's 401k's.
2) There was a perception, true or not, that it applied to incomes >$400k. In some places, that is very close to the pay for regular independent contributors.
I realized I overestimated how much the average American really cares about anything beyond a very surface, cursory glance. We’re firmly in post-truth, vibes only world.
I figured the situation in Gaza was going to matter more to voters, but on the other hand, it does also seem like pushing for an arms embargo wouldn't have *hurt* the Dems either, given the exit polls that suggest no strong direction either way amongst most of the electorate
Yeah. The next person who tells me to “take the high road” to political discourse, when these types of consequences are on the line, is gonna get throat punched.
That patronage could be an effective strategy to win over marginal votes in key areas. Turns out voters have the internet now and are much wiser to such plots and you have to enact policies that credibly help everyone.
Francis Fukuyama’s identification of latafundia—elites with fortunes, landholdings, and loci of power so vast they can challenge the state—co-opting the state as a key source of political decay is much more important than I previously appreciated.
I thought moderately high (3-4%) levels of inflation would be fine so long as wages increased with them. Very wrong. People think they earn wage increases and government does inflation to them.
The median voter does not have a sophisticated understanding of economics. Stats don’t matter to them.
The administration didn't do enough to address the price increase of staples. (I'm comparing to here in France where they had similar inflation but the food I buy didn't increase that much.)
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I believe personally as a UK Citizen in the UK that it will likely cause a large issue with the "special relationship" although that may just be wishful thinking.
Trump blew $8 trillion…that’s a significant cause to the inflation. Agree…Biden also added on…point is they both earned it, but Biden got stuck with it.
I think it would have been hard to beat but I think the not listening to how people felt & instead a loud “middle class” & “we created jobs” talking over people message was discouraging.
Read LinkedIn & Reddit. People are not doing well.
I think you both should take a closer look at the results as they are now. It was again an exceedingly close election in the few places where it mattered. If a coin flip could be won, this could have been too.
I agree with you, this was never winnable, people's minds were made up since 2015 to elect Trump, and this certainty made them entirely insensate to any new input about what he said or did. And it extended this willful ignorance to every subject that might have changed their minds.
I think this was winnable, it was a razor thin victory for trump as it was. I thought dems leaning to the center was the correct move for them. I think now perhaps they should have leaned left. Fine Cheney endorsed, but they didn’t need to hug her.
The main thing it's changed my mind on is that online mis+disinformation is about more than just polarization. A very significant number of people are being taken in by nonsense, which is not something I believed before.
I believed that these mis/disinformation campaigns were about shoring up and riling up the base, but the fact that there were so many split ticket votes tells another story.
I don't think regulating the internet is even possible. Because the problem isn't the internet. It's about adults instantly believing what someone else said because that person reminds them of themselves. Which no matter what era we've been in. Has been an insanely large problem.
Imagine for a second. A person with polka dot skin attempting to convince striped skinned people that striped skinned people are the worst. Now imagine them convincing polka dot skinned people that striped skin people are the worst. Which would be more effective?
i thought that the republican shift towards low-information voters was bad strategy because low-information voters aren't very reliable. turns out that straight up doesn't matter, because low-information america is just such a *huge* and *rapidly growing* segment of the electorate
I was really uncertain if palestine mattered /electorally/. But 1.4 points diff, drop in youth turnout makes me start to believe it did. Youth is in the non traditional media space and palestine as an issue was very present there. *I personally want palestine to matter and israel to stop genocide
(and of course it could be a different path couldve lead to a bigger loss, but I think that was potentially an empty threat from the news readers who mostly aligned harris)
Harris came very close in Wisconsin and Michigan, where there was most impact of the contract. I think organized labor did matter, it just wasn't enough to make up the bad environment (and remember, union density is only 10%)
I've learned that people actually really care about the candidate having won a primary, and skipping that process is not something that should ever be attempted again!
I think there's a not-insignificant number of people who were put off by her being installed without a primary - the margins are so small in swing states that you only need a small number of people to care about something like this for it to drop Dem turnout and make a terrible difference!
Then these people are irretrievably stupid. I can't stand Kamala Harris, okay? I only voted for he when she was running for Senate because Loretta Sanchez was dumber.
People who cared that strongly—and they only seem to be conservatives who already weren't going to vote D no matter what—need to remember that primary elections weren't commonplace until the *1980s* and that before that, the party figured out the candidate at the convention
I think it’s not so much that people care about winning a primary, as that the primary process allows one to identify the candidate with the most effective message. I thought Harris was a strong candidate, but perhaps another Democrat would have been stronger.
The only people who seemed mad about that were all vocal Trump voters.
Though, if a proper primary were to be held, maybe a stronger candidate would have emerged. And the longer campaign would’ve had more time to get their messaging/platform out in front of voters.
I haven't heard anyone but diehard Trumpers say anything about it since before Harris was decided upon. They want us to be upset. But I haven't met a soul who was.
That’s fair enough, but they’re just parroting a Trump & far left talking point, and working their way backwards for a reason.
After all, these folks believe in the sanctity of the election process so much they voted for a guy who tried to violently overthrow the results of the last one? Please.
I could plausibly believe that you're entirely correct and that it was all manufactured - I still suspect that the smearing on this cut through to and influenced some of the more disengaged swing voters, but I have no way to prove it! I definitely wouldn't feel comfortable skipping a primary again.
Absolutely - one which I didn't really expect would cut through, but which (anecdotally!) seems to me to have done. Which is why my view changed from at the time being very happy with swapping out Biden without a new primary, to now being very wary of Dems ever doing so again.
I’m skeptical too. They may have been already posed away from the Dems, but if the Dems don’t have a powerful message (which they definitely didn’t do), then there’s *no* chance of moving those people. We gotta remember- not all people are addicted to politics like we are
Hmm, I'd file that under "Kamala Harris should never have been the Democratic nominee" in that table, which is +11 for swing voters that chose Trump. Far from the most important reason, but it's the biggest one that I changed my view on because of the election - didn't think it would matter at all!
I think not holding a primary did indescribable damage, exactly in line with a growing narrative (whether you like it & agree or not!) of dems being anti-democratic elite consultant class types. Reevaluating how I felt, especially in July/august, in light of that.
Right. These are consultants who were advising the Harris campaign. Hmm. I wonder what's more likely. Consultants on the Kamala campaign blaming the same people they've blamed for every election they lose. Or is it that Kamala refused to break with Biden?
Anecdotal but met a couple from California whilst in Italy. They said they normally vote Democrat but were reluctantly voting Trump because they couldn't forgive Harris for not being honest about Biden's health and not having primary etc. Turkeys voting for Christmas!
I can't believe that you actually need polling to tell you that it is deeply offensive to most by omitting the Democratic process in electing a candidate.
Idk…Latinos have been migrating right since Hillary; I know she lost some of the Arab vote due to Palestine…that I don’t get because Trump is going to accelerate their extinction (slight hyperbole).
What? I didn't care about this in the slightest! That's why I find it so surprising that other people (supposedly - you likely disagree!) did care enough for it to put them off Kamala.
Not sure I get that. She was on the primary ballot. Albeit as VP under Biden. If the elites in the DNC had made a 'new' choice to shove down our throats I would have withdrawn all donations and support.
Your anecdote is exactly why this is so interesting to me - it would never have even occurred to me that the nominee being on the primary ballot as VP vs not being on there at all would make *any* difference to anyone's opinion on her being installed as the presidential candidate. Yet here you are!
Not that anyone else shares my feeling on this, but my vote in the primary for the Biden/Harris ticket was my explicit endorsement for Harris as potential President. Biden dropping out and Harris replacing him was for me akin to him resigning and Harris becoming President.
I think that phenomenon still falls under the umbrella of good ole sexism with a touch of racism bc to me it just feels like something someone says when they are looking for an excuse not to vote vs a true philosophical deal breaker.
No one thing brought us low. It was the result of a Perfect Storm of small political wedge issues, driven in to existing cracks - young/old, straight/trans, Nativists/immigrants, rich/poor, Israel/Palestine...
And the hammers/wedges were provided by our Nation's enemies to insiders who betrayed us.
After the Trump/Biden debate I was firmly on team “don’t have a primary,” and I still think it would have been a stupid and pathetic display of original-recipe Dem disarray, but now I am starting to think maybe that would have been better than the alternative where nothing happened and n one cared
i mean harris got a big boost for six-eight weeks after the swap happened...
(also i suspect that -- given that relying on pop stars seemingly backfired -- a panel with MrBeast and Taylor Swift with ten randos on stage vying to be the nominee is how we get red new jersey)
Yeah I dunno! I think there's a chance it would have fucked everything up but also a chance that even a perfunctory primary process would have given Harris a bit more of a positive identity or "narrative" for voters
the trick is to kayfabe an open race, which harris kind of managed (with the drip-drip-drip of state delegations backing her), but a "blitz primary" that actually, like, runs primaries wouldn't have been possible due to ballot deadlines anyway
And the reason that the boost stopped was partially because they stopped running on some of the same tactics that they were going with, especially with throwing Walz out to do a lot of messaging
I started digging more into the economic alienation angle as it relates to the working and middle class. I do now believe it’s a prime driver in what we see. Booming economy with a lot of the benefits going to the wealthy, so a feeling of anxiety driving those dependent on continued earned income.
My stance towards full employment and progressive economic policies in general. Turn out that even the beneficiaries of full employment and tight labor markets hate it, because they think the benefits are their own doing and the costs are the government’s fault. Beyond that, pro-union policies don’t
seem to do anything to staunch the bleeding with the working class but do ensure that the plutocrats hate us, and a hostile regulatory attitude towards crypto made enemies but didn’t weaken them in the process. Also, that information environments are fucked so Dems need to get more low trust voters.
before the election I thought polling was trash for showing borderline realignment numbers for POC and Republicans and for showing it as a tight race but pollsters did a pretty good job this year
The day after the election, a Facebook poster said "I saw the gas prices already dropped after Trump got elected". My ADD wants to reply to those people so badly. Maybe she was joking, but I dunno....
For one, I've decided it's no longer worth engaging with conservative demi-trolls on Twitter.
Also, it's time for Dems to play a much more cutthroat version of politics against republicans. Decorum be damned, those guys just need to be beaten and humiliated.
I've changed my mind about the validity of democrat voters treating republicans with kid gloves. Democrats need to stop conditioning Republicans into believing that voting against the interests of majority Americans can continue with impunity. /1
Republicans are an anchor that drags down progresss for all Americans. Democrats need to learn to drop that anchor, instead of simply getting better at rowing.
It was really just the same situation we faced in Vietnam (and Afghanistan). Democrats taking the role of traditional army vs GOP using radio hosts and influencers as a guerrilla force spreading disinformation. When you look at what many Trump voters SUPPORT, it was Harris’ platform.
That targeting areas and congressional districts with aid and investment in order to boost employment/wages/etc would lead to people considering that an administration with a different capital letter beside it might actually have their best interests at heart and this lead to more votes.
I was wrong about how most Americans felt about Trump. I knew he had a devoted fan base.
But I thought people who didn't pay attention to politics would have been fed up with him and eager to never see or hear from him again.
For me, the first Trump term was an unmitigated disaster. The Covid failure was the peak, where he would discourage testing because it would make him look bad. When he left office, even before 1/6, he was deep underwater in polls. Yet now he reached 50 approval for the first time …
So in short the election 1) emphasized the importance of communication over results and 2) the extent of right wing media. what good is policy if no one knows about it? Also I didn’t fully realize the extent of the dislike of Biden administration.
The irony is that inflation was quite low leading up to the election. Biden had done the hard yards to bring it under control.
But stopping inflation prevents price *increases*, it doesn't bring them back down to where they were. Everyone still felt the high prices, even if the problem was fixed.
Inflation was a difficult head wind to overcome, despite losing I think Harris did much better than others would’ve and kept the democrats from a complete collapse down ballot.
I wish I could say yes. But it just confirmed a lot of things I was hoping to be wrong about.
And proving me wrong isn’t exactly insurmountable under most circumstances
Not the ELECTION, but after the DNC I was like oh man the Democratic party is detached from labor, this sucks. A big pro military speech from a candidate cozying up to the Cheyneys and Clintons? Who is this for? It's the joker 2 of campaigns.
Yeah, I did not expect to see such a backslide in suburban voting patterns back towards republicans so quickly derailing a genuine realignment, when most of the successful organizers I’ve met the last few years have been suburban women.
I was a very enthusiastic member of Team Transitory, and a firm believer that 2009-2012 vs. 2020-2023 demonstrated forever after the superior *economics* of Keynesianism over the austerians. This was not a surprise to me.
Being 100% wrong about the *politics* was a surprise, and a depressing one.
I didn’t think that Harris would lose Michigan over Gaza, and I now believe that if she had engaged more constructively w/ Uncommitted she would have won Michigan
Joe Biden should’ve never run for a second term, but it is unlikely that a full primary would’ve delivered a clear win (it may have delivered a 2016 loss w a pop vote win? Maybe?)
Centrists were right about inflation being politically toxic, and you can't trade it for employment and wage gains even if it makes economic sense and expect to survive.
The consequences of this are fairly dire, but progressive measures have to move within inflation.
I am now fully convinced that the 2028 Democratic nominee needs to tack to the center and engage in left-punching the likes of which the world has never seen before. I think they should proceed to govern exactly like Biden once they're actually elected, but the *rhetoric* needs to be left-punching.
I have a friend who has a strict line that every person who votes republican is a bigoted piece of shit. That either they openly support hate or it's not enough to turn them away from that party.
The polls were extremely correct though. Many of them had Trump winning the popular vote, they all had Arizona as the most GOP swing state. They had states like NY closer. They called racial depolarization and GenZ support for Trump.
My understanding is the guy who bet big on tr*p didn’t ask who you’re voting for but who your neighbor was voting for. Since there were apparently _still_ shy trump voters that seems like a good question.
I thought the shift among Hispanic voters in 2020 was largely a communication story, but it now looks more likely that they’re undergoing the process of “becoming white” a la white ethnics, for lack of better way of putting it.
That we focused to much on trump and not those around him, as well there is a growing divide between information and how it is distributed, any one I know who only get information for news papers and tv are living in a different world then those of us who get it for online sources as well good info
Several people replying to interpret this in the worst possible light. No, I'm not saying Dems need to become more racist or anti-immigrant. I'm honestly not sure what they need to do, but it's not that.
They just need to speak in empty platitudes. Obama won on hope and change. Dems presidents need to never propose a single policy again and just talk about goals.
Needs to be anti-elite and labor based. The weirdo creepy billionaires are in power now. Just ask some questions about them. Hypotheticals. Conspiracy theories about their actual conspiracy to create a real oligarchy and demolish quality of life. Who looks at Leonard Leo and doesn't see creep?
Given that typical migrant is a gay bashing sociocon I am increasingly unconvinced the outcomes those people encounter are worth caring about.
What's the point? So they can start running ground game for evangelicals the moment they get permanent resident status?
Pretty sure that's an us job. As in any and every american in america. Because how do people find out about good tv shows if we don't talk about how good they are and get them to watch?
Bernie is the most obvious model for appealing to no-college voters without compromising on social issues imo. I know plenty of MAGA people who like/respect Bernie to some degree, which wouldn't be intuitive if you think about politics as a single left/right axis.
Yeah, the "weird" comment was working so well, because its true. They're weird sociopaths. But the "they go low we go high" consultants got ahold of Walz and didn't allow him to embrace his full potential
what kind? Isolationism? Xenophobia? Misogyny? Racism? White supremacy? Economic ignorance, and willful belief of disinformation? WHAT “populist rhetoric”? Should it be truth, or just lies forever?
I used to think single issue voters were a mostly Right-leaning thing. Abortion was always a sticking point for lots of folks I knew. The amount of people fixated on Israel-Palestine and not giving Kamala a chance versus the incredibly pro-Israel Trump has left me winded.
People were definitely willing to give Harris a chance. We begged her to include a Palestinian voice at the DNC. Even that would have been largely symbolic, but she wasn't even willing to do that.
Even still, thinking this one single issue is the only reason she lost is silly. It wasn't close.
1) Israel's long-term military situation is a lot worse than you realize
2) Trump will be worse, but Israel is getting by with erasing north Gaza as we speak under Biden
3) you're a lunatic
Your racist instinct to view Palestinians as subhuman clouds your ability to recognize the simple fact that the best way to help them is stop sending the weapons that are used to murder them.
If you can give me a single example of the right begging Trump to cede ground on an issue or people would withhold their vote, I would consider that as a possibility.
I'm not saying it's the ONLY reason. I'm saying there were a large number of single issue voters on this one issue.
Then we are very much on the same side, and I think if the left can embrace unconditional unity how the right has we will stand a better chance moving forward.
Honestly, that unity has been the key. Lots of Republicans have *one* issue that motivates them, and don't like other Republican policies or people for whatever reason. But they know they have a better chance of getting what they want if they vote R, always.
“Unconditional unity” isn’t really a thing on the right. When Obama won the 2012 elections, the Tea Party movement swept through the Republican Party and eventually led to the populist that was Donald Trump.
If anything, the lesson is that the Dems should be *more* receptive.
Anyone on the right who seriously tried to challenge or moderate Trump got ran out of the party or brought to heel. The left doesn’t have (and shouldn’t want) a similar strong man authoritarian
We should want to win. We can sit and debate principle and policy all day but when push comes to shove if we have no power or voice in government it's all moot.
Obviously voting for Trump for this reason was not smart. But there were lots of people who voted in "not smart" ways in this election. You can't just blame that on the voters. Harris failed to put forward a compelling narrative that could compete with Trumpism.
I don't think this issue turned the race but, despite the GOP and the media saying otherwise, the race actually was very close. In Wisconsin, the difference amounts to a few people per polling station.
Exactly. That VOTERS chose their votes on. We had less turnout for Democratic voters than in 2019, and a lot of the rhetoric from far, far left progressives revolved around Kamala not being good for Gaza. I don't think those two facts are unlinked.
And here was me, hoping that Twitter was the only place absolutely obsessed with Biden cock.
Kamala lost for a number of reasons, I'm not comfortable pinning it entirely on her gender. To me the biggest issue is the lack of unity on the left, and the election results back that up.
& she didn't say what she'd do differently in terms of his policies and actions in the past. I get it's hard to do as VP, but that would have made a difference.
Yes. The best (only?) objective tool we have for knowing this is polling. As the original post said, the polling convinced me after the debate that she was a much better candidate.
But she lost and the polls missed her support significantly. So that also made me question the original polling.
There's still a very good argument to be made that Harris was a stronger candidate. But I think people are way too dismissive of the argument for Biden because it's not corroborated by polling.
Yeah. The polling can’t reflect the voters who were dishonest that said they would vote for a woman when, in fact, they would not. I feared this when Biden left the race, and I am heartbroken that it happened, again. She generated new voters that he did not, but also lost voters that he would not.
biden couldn't communicate and couldn't campaign much in the swing states. if you want a visceral reminder, watch his debate again. (i did a week ago).
Ditto. I don't think it's "rage bait," but it is an incredibly spicy take. 2024 Biden probably down by 5-6 points. 2008 or 2012 Biden? Different story.
I was convinced until... well, the debate, that the age issue was mainly a proxy for general dissatisfaction with the state of the country, and I think that was basically incorrect
I was on the fence about how important the age issue was. The media is guaranteed to focus on some negative aspect of a candidate. I think it's good when that aspect has low salience with the "important" voters. And I don't trust myself to be a good judge of what aspects matter for those voters.
I am sure this will trigger some folks here, but I absolutely did NOT want Biden to run again. I felt like we needed someone completely different, younger, more charismatic. Harris had too much Biden-baggage to be that candidate. 😕
Nobody who isn't just a hard line 'whoever the dems put up there' supporter would disagree. Biden, himself, promised one term only, and then changed his mind out of ego.
this was a mistake made by too many, ultimately forcing him to move aside. Clooney, Reiner, et al, pushed that narrative bc they're fringe LWNJ'ers with 1 foot in the Sarandon'ista/Squadite mentality (the uncommitted's team). They think they're 'bringing the Sanders revolution' by screwing us all.
I was convinced that even though Joe was underwater the battle of misogyny racism and misinformation would be harder to climb than the dementia debate. Now I don't think either were climbable mountains in the media climate. And people are way more ignorant than I realized.
There is, but I'd have to be brutally honest and would likely risk offending a great many people by speaking it out loud.
And I don't really feel like stepping out of my good vibes zone on here yet.
The seriousness of podcasters or You Tubers. I have teens and they (and their friends) are thoughtful, kind and open to others. I thought most are that, bro culture was a bit overblown and a generation raised online had good BS detection. Not anymore. Apparently Gen Z needs propaganda education
This changed for me over the course of the campaign: I’m much more open to right-wing immigration policy after seeing a large amount of survey data showing voters want a crackdown
Yes. I don't see any reason why we shouldn't argue for maximum change anymore. I don't want abortion rights, I want free abortions, no questions asked. I don't want "trans rights", I want people actively working for a society based on care and compassion at every level; no exclusions except bigots.
I’d underestimated how much the brainwashing is ingrained thanks to the lies, conspiracy theories, and propaganda spread around by Twitter, Facebook, etc.
So when Trump / Republicans speak it sounds like they’re speaking “the truth” ie on climate / vaccines, etc etc.
I once thought that debates, rethoric, and policy prescriptions mattered a lot more. I now think they are only 30% of running a campaign, a lot more comes down to variables that can't be effected (lowering prices) or policy that reverberates into the future (housing).
I thought going into this election Joe Biden was the greatest president of my lifetime. Now he’s going to be remembered for the genocide in Gaza and not doing enough to stop the threat that Trump poses. He can pound salt for all I care now.
Well Biden appointed Garland, so I still fault him for that. But there’s a long list of people who are responsible for not taking the threat of Trump seriously, and Biden and Garland are on it. Along with the Clintons, Obamas, Pelosi, Schumer, etc.
Any pride about being Gen X is now gone.
I am reevaluating my childhood memories.
Maybe we were "independent" and iconoclastic.
Maybe we are just assholes.
I swear every generation thinks they will fix things now that they are coming into power and the older generations are dying off. Later they realize they are just as screwed up.
Midterms, specials, and off-year elections mean nothing because tuned-in election nerds who know their state rep’s name & vote in every race vote D while Trump can summon votes from the clinically unengaged from the void.
Silver lining is that many of them apparently can’t be asked to vote for a Republican senator the same day they dragged their ass to the polls to vote for Trump, so hopefully they’ll spend 2025-27 sitting on their ass.
God only knows if Vance can drag them out in 2028.
I have a faint hope that Trump's charisma is sui generis and his successors will be a lot less popular, even if we have to pry the country out from their fingers
Used to think the bro podcasts didn’t have that much import. Not sure they moved the needle as much as campaign stops… but people definitely got their news and info from roid ripped, rode mic’d dudes with horrible takes this go around. Wouldn’t underestimate that genre going forward.
Kamala should have said she disagreed on some of Biden's policies to seperate herself from the polling boat anchor that was Biden, hard to do as VP but didn't realize how many said country on wrong track etc.
Kamala should have not just gone on Rogan, but many more podcasts/interviews even if risk
twitter is real life, actually. repetitive messaging is very important. aoc might have done well in a dem primary. pete prolly not. harris is very good. trump won in spite, rather than because, of his election denial.
generally, pretty open to different ways forward at the moment and am oscillating between them. time for some intra-party fights. and, show me the data!
Before, even though I liked Bernie’s lot, I thought his major theory that Democratic politics was controlled by the Donor class was unrefined and missing nuance. After this cycle, I think it’s basically exactly correct. It’s more complex than simple corruption, but it’s broadly true
Nope and all our efforts to inform/warn others had to swim upstream against willful ignorance, pre-existing biases, and the constant lying and disinformation from the Right.
I knew we were in trouble when my last trump guy in my life--family--told me that Milley was paid by the Democrats to say what he said. It was too suspicious for him that it came only a week before the election.
The state of Wisconsin. They’ve seen by far the worst anti-democratic.abuses by the GOP and they’ve seen the whole grift firsthand with the FoxConn mess. I was sure a majority of them would get it right
I've changed my mind on "blame the billionaires" type messaging. Used to think it lacked nuance and let landowners/small business off the hook, now I think it's critically important to lean into.
I used to think the electorate responded to policies somewhat, but it is in fact all vibes. Whatever you successfully paint your opponent as is all the voters will hear.
Political engagement is a lot lower than we thought - newer generations aren’t more involved in politics, are not more informed and do not have stronger ideological leanings compared to prior generations. The marginal votes that mattered were decided last minute, and were indeed based on vibes.
Corporate America is not our friend, free trade is not working politically, and we HAVE to start thinking class at less as equally as important as identity politics. It’s the core of why we struggle.
Not really, because I don't base my idea of what's right on what a majority of voters says is right.
I think what the election mostly proves is that people didn't want Kamala Harris, for a variety of reasons, from the left right and center.
My Indigenous daughter and I are talking about starting a community group to have sincere conversation about politics. She’s aware that many brown people are misinformed via MSM or fundamentalist churches. How about you?
With good reason. It's a shite situation. I think my daughter is right. Having conversation is essential, and not just at people's doors, although we have canvassed a lot too. Ongoing relationship, ongoing community may reach those who are misinformed. Having said that, we live in a county where...
80% of voters voted for Kamala. So there are another 20% we could reach, and doing this elsewhere (maybe via Zoom?) would be more effective. But how do we reach those folks? Does my brown daughter dare go into an area where her safety may be at risk, particularly if we were to become known.
I thought Elon Musk telling people tough financial times would be in our future for the next 5 years b/c "tariffs" and "cuts" would have mattered to people bitching about the economy but I was wrong.
Political affairs needs to be a mandatory class in high school. Kids need unbiased education about how politics works because at the moment all they have is twitter which is a right-wing cesspit of misinformation and reactionary nonsense
I've changed my mind about the importance of facts and policies in national races. More than ever, it's about the vibes. Lizard-brain responses of disgust, fear, and superiority only subside if folks have time to think, so MAGA just keeps pressing those buttons every damn day.
A friend said, more people hate us (BIPOC, PWD, LGBT, immigrants, women in authority, liberals) & want to stick it to us than they want help buying a house, help raising their kids, starting a business, etc.
I heard her, wondered about that, but hoped people were still ultimately good
Yea there are a lot of people I know that more or less think Trans people are freaks that need to be punished. Trans issues in 2024 are bad politics for Dems unfortunately.
The intensity and breadth of the GOP propaganda machine distorted reality beyond capacity of any candidate or policy to make a difference. They spent 3 decades building it and IMO it is now unstoppable without comparable response from the center and left.
Looking at the numbers I had Latinos starting to break for Trump but the underrepresentation by women and younger people was not on my bingo card. That was a shock to me.
The disinformation campaign was far more vast and powerful than I thought. I’ve been chugging along thinking only the most rabid magas can believe that nonsense, but I neglected to comprehend the power of never hearing anything but the strategic lie being supported by an oligarchy.
+1 I don't believe we have an "echo chamber" problem, but I do think we are shielded from how utterly batshit crazy MAGA talk is
Like, some are utterly convinced Harris will be installed on Jan 20. Some are utterly convinced the economy *should* crash. It's not propaganda, it's insanity
People don’t still care about abortion as much as I thought. Or at least aren’t as generically put off by Republicans over it, just will vote to protect that specific right.
Ten years ago, dropped cable. This year, cancelled subscriptions to two national newspapers that failed so catastrophically in pumping charismatic politics. Now, solely reliant on The Guardian, The Economist, Reuters, Nature, Science, and a couple newsletters.
I, for one, am quite flabbergasted that a one-off 8% inflation in the richest country in history makes people vote for an outright lunatic and a proven danger to the Constitution.
I wouldn't have believed it possible. And quite honestly, I don't know what to do with it going forward.
Yeah, prior to the election I thought fewer Americans were so willfully fucking ignorant that they'd convince themselves Trump is further left than Harris to make themselves feel better about voting for a rapist
It appears that far too many people believe what they read on social media and are either too lazy or too uneducated to do any research on what each party is offering. Sadly the more vile and hateful the rhetoric is, the more those people like it.
My faith in the American people has changed. We're not better than we actually turned out to be. There are lots more awful people in the US than I believed.
I wasn’t wrong about why the Dems were fucked, but I def underestimated how fucked. I thought he’d have to steal PA, not sweep every fucking swing state.
The number of not split-ticket voters but Trump and blank downballots has made more hopeful that Trump is a unique phenomena, but also more angry at the electorate if that's true.
I used to think that all of the liberals telling me I had to vote were genocide supporters who might win over the other party of genocide supporters, and now I think that they are losers who can't win (as well as still being genocide supporters)
Was broadly convinced that "running to the left" doesn't work as much as one would hope, and am now convinced that "running to the right" is not a good solution to that problem. I think we will have to come up with a third, much stupider, thing to appeal to swing voters.
Bernie Sanders' message resonated because it contained a lot of (legitimate) grievances. He had great policies, but his message hit because of the underlying grievances.
I thought the abortion grievance would be enough for women voters, but I guess it wasn't immediate enough...
Comments
Many voters are always "dumber" than we think, but I hope they understand existing property taxes and that the Dems aren't adding a scary new tax.
that they have no idea at all wht a cap gains tax is ?
Anyway it needs "Rich People" in the name.
:)
no edit post function * but my post is poorly worded, implying non college educated are not smart or something
*mastodon, without any VC money, has edit post , and decent bookmark function
2020 shut it down a lot
So the disinfo team rebuilt
Stupid Americans fell for it again
There is no solution now, it's game over.
It’s really a reflection on the US’ classism, poverty, and educational system more than anything else.
Under Project 2025, they’ll push to reduce capital gains tax down to 15%.
Might end the ability to borrow against unrealized gains. The reason is too much to explain.
I don't know how we fix this, but it's a real problem.
1. Mass deportations of non white immigrants
2. Cut taxes for corporations and wealthy.
3. Slap the residual revenue burden or working class.
4. Increase white population by forcing women to have children.
5. Turn the country into a full blown Oligarchy.
Please add more
https://youtu.be/BLP6K8xm0Kc?si=LwXI9ppt5iCk-DRe
I knew inflation was bad for incumbents but it seems like it’s actual existential poison. I feel like as an incumbent you’d rather the fed sacrifice unemployment to maintain low inflation.
But that’s just my feelings, of course
Get rid of social security tax.
Write a law that says every citizen has the legal right to secure retirement.
Thus, government commits to paying for SS directly for the next 200 years
but I didn’t know that a large plurality of these folks really can be fooled all of the time
Its a version of tax the rich. Call it a rich tax. Call it a kind of wealth tax. We are taxing the richoids and they are mad about it
IF EXPLAINED, the public prefers Dem policies.
This was Bill Clinton’s superpower, and it could still be effective today.
They are not going to hold Trump to deporting 12 million undocumented or 60% tariffs on China (100% on Mexico). He might do it anyway because he's a moron but he could easily walk those back.
Break Brawndo's legs, and maybe we find out, no.
Also, "I hate socialism, but keep your hands off my Social Security and Medicare."
We come up with good policy that suck as populist slogans. We need to focus less on policy specifics and more on branding a message that lands progressive values as populist.
We don't have to govern as populists but we need to brand as working class populists.
It is ALL about MESSAGING.
So how about a completely NEW movement with an AGENDA for THE PEOPLE?
Easier than you think, I’ve already done most of the work.
Help refine and critique my 💡
THE AGENDA is to vehemently resist any efforts to concentrate power away from THE PEOPLE
Sadly most Dems are completely oblivious to how completely GOP rules political messaging
They don’t even seem aware Lakoff exists
Hence a vacillate between despair and “karma”
2) There was a perception, true or not, that it applied to incomes >$400k. In some places, that is very close to the pay for regular independent contributors.
Many, many Americans are as thick as a Boxing Day turd and have no moral compass.
I understand the logic of the Terror much more.
The median voter does not have a sophisticated understanding of economics. Stats don’t matter to them.
After seeing the results, I think there’s essentially no candidate and no campaign that could have won.
Biden overcompensated for 45's cruelty-based policies on immigration, again furthering an image of chaos.
Read LinkedIn & Reddit. People are not doing well.
https://youtu.be/BLP6K8xm0Kc?si=LwXI9ppt5iCk-DRe
Prior to the election I thought that at least 2/3 of Americans were intelligent and sane.
Now I realise that only about 48% are intelligent and sane
Though, if a proper primary were to be held, maybe a stronger candidate would have emerged. And the longer campaign would’ve had more time to get their messaging/platform out in front of voters.
After all, these folks believe in the sanctity of the election process so much they voted for a guy who tried to violently overthrow the results of the last one? Please.
https://blueprint2024.com/polling/why-trump-reasons-11-8/
https://www.thenation.com/article/politics/party-under-country-dissecting-the-democratic-malaise/
And the hammers/wedges were provided by our Nation's enemies to insiders who betrayed us.
We have an election where a D+6 win in Jersey and an R+13 win in Florida coexist with an R+2 Georgia R+<1 Wisconsin.
The only thing that makes sense here is that Harris-Walz’s insane swing state ground game and ad presence meant something.
(also i suspect that -- given that relying on pop stars seemingly backfired -- a panel with MrBeast and Taylor Swift with ten randos on stage vying to be the nominee is how we get red new jersey)
like newsom, shapiro, buttigieg all can't go for it, but maybe like seth moulton could be talked into it (so harris can then steamroll him)
I was like “mini primary that’s nuts we don’t have time for that”
Alas!
Also, it's time for Dems to play a much more cutthroat version of politics against republicans. Decorum be damned, those guys just need to be beaten and humiliated.
The far less benevolent autocracy prevailed.
They should be unemployable at this point, but they keep popping up every election.
The glass ceiling was stronger than I thought (though not determinant)
I haven't dug into the data yet, so we'll see what else I shift on.
But I thought people who didn't pay attention to politics would have been fed up with him and eager to never see or hear from him again.
NIMBYs have basically won the PR war against a 20-years-delayed train here. So fuck it. I'm pushing for smart growth without a train.
https://bsky.app/profile/glassbro.bsky.social/post/3lazfjtcsjs2m
and then from there, greater openness to building a big tent coalition because we need to be able to win even under very bad circumstances
But stopping inflation prevents price *increases*, it doesn't bring them back down to where they were. Everyone still felt the high prices, even if the problem was fixed.
obviously delivering what people wanted (deflation) would have been even worse
And proving me wrong isn’t exactly insurmountable under most circumstances
Being 100% wrong about the *politics* was a surprise, and a depressing one.
The consequences of this are fairly dire, but progressive measures have to move within inflation.
I thought a full-on European-style far right anti-immigrant racist campaign couldn’t win the popular vote in an OECD country
I didn't use to agree with her.
That was clearly untrue and seemingly has been for quite some time.
Effectiveness of Democratic messaging
Importance of past inflation to party allegiance
Wrong. They're even worse than white men.
Populist messaging works
Prior to the election, it was unimaginable that Americans would elect such a deeply flawed person to represent them, again.
The 45th presidency? A gamble, an accident, an aberration.
The 47th? A deliberate choice of chaos, dysfunction & self-inflicted harm.
What's the point? So they can start running ground game for evangelicals the moment they get permanent resident status?
Saying “the economy is doing great”
when you mean “spending, GDP, and stock markets are all up”
feels like gaslighting to the 90% who look at their empty bank accounts and no savings and say “my economy isn’t so hot.”
Dems disenfranchised so many with that, which I hope was unintentional.
Time for fresh leadership :-)
I unfortunately think that there will be plenty of opportunities to discuss Dem policies in the future.
IE The ACA is likely a goner.
When health insurance gets rapidly worse or lost, say every night "that was a Dem policy. The GOP took it away."
Even still, thinking this one single issue is the only reason she lost is silly. It wasn't close.
2) Trump will be worse, but Israel is getting by with erasing north Gaza as we speak under Biden
3) you're a lunatic
I'm not saying it's the ONLY reason. I'm saying there were a large number of single issue voters on this one issue.
There were evangelicals and other fundamentalists who withheld votes in the 90's. Maybe it worked(?)
But I'm not a proponent of that strategy anyways. I voted for Harris.
Swing voters are the same.
Many on the far left are single issue in that if you miss on one single issue they will sit out.
If anything, the lesson is that the Dems should be *more* receptive.
And anyone who decided to vote Trump to support the Palestinians was delusional.
It's because Joe was a man with a penis, hth.
Kamala lost for a number of reasons, I'm not comfortable pinning it entirely on her gender. To me the biggest issue is the lack of unity on the left, and the election results back that up.
It was woman and grocery prices and Americans being the dumbest and least curious that they've ever been in history.
That's quite literally all.
Harris only had 3 month to start & run a campaign b/c Biden's ego, and Biden's polling was dogshit for a long time and
But she lost and the polls missed her support significantly. So that also made me question the original polling.
Now I have a lot of rage towards everyone who covered it up, lied to us, and are still out here lying
If anything he does notably worse.
And I don't really feel like stepping out of my good vibes zone on here yet.
Score one for the Stancil Hypotheses
So when Trump / Republicans speak it sounds like they’re speaking “the truth” ie on climate / vaccines, etc etc.
It’s worse than I thought.
If you want to pin the blame on someone for not stopping Trump, put it on Merrick Garland.
Instead of fighting the boomers, like 70% of the ones that survived to this point were like, "Yes, master. Right away master. *wrings hands*"
Used to be a better split, but being a decent person is more likely to kill you than being a piece of shit.
I am reevaluating my childhood memories.
Maybe we were "independent" and iconoclastic.
Maybe we are just assholes.
2) I had thought that, maybe, Harris's silence on trans rights was a deliberate strategy to make the GOP seem weird for hating on us so much
Now I'm convinced the Dems were merely trying to have it both ways
“Low propensity voter” discourse was correct.
Midterms, specials, and off-year elections mean nothing because tuned-in election nerds who know their state rep’s name & vote in every race vote D while Trump can summon votes from the clinically unengaged from the void.
God only knows if Vance can drag them out in 2028.
Kamala should have not just gone on Rogan, but many more podcasts/interviews even if risk
Right wing influence permeates so much nichey communities & their news. Lefties need more of a 360 approach.
Still, lots of incumbents worldwide did bad so ☝️ makes winning more possible, but not guaranteed
I think what the election mostly proves is that people didn't want Kamala Harris, for a variety of reasons, from the left right and center.
sexist, racist assholes here than
I once believed
I heard her, wondered about that, but hoped people were still ultimately good
I was wrong
I don’t think policy matters.
The intensity and breadth of the GOP propaganda machine distorted reality beyond capacity of any candidate or policy to make a difference. They spent 3 decades building it and IMO it is now unstoppable without comparable response from the center and left.
Like, some are utterly convinced Harris will be installed on Jan 20. Some are utterly convinced the economy *should* crash. It's not propaganda, it's insanity
I wouldn't have believed it possible. And quite honestly, I don't know what to do with it going forward.
That's clearly not getting them anywhere so I'm all in moving left, since they're going to be losing elections regardless.
And, I think Democrats are reluctant to have an honest discussion of how our Overton got shifted so far to the right.
And I think this point is important because without such a discussion, I worry we can’t think strategically
lol.
Thank you and whoever did that
Rather than The Enlightenment & Democracy and Public Law and Public Money
Versus none of the above
Which could imply the need for less social spending (which I tend to favor)
It’s not enough though. And it must be updated with current data not just Obama era replication.
The price of eggs *right now* matters far more than any policies proposing to bring the price down, or policies that may send the price soaring.
Most voters aren't big thinkers.
I thought the abortion grievance would be enough for women voters, but I guess it wasn't immediate enough...
eg:
D Shor: the mirror ad was counterproductive is proven right (Julia Roberts ad)
Abortion: no one cares that much (sorta true)
Harris plans are to complex (see rortybomb/vox on 2016 trump rallies)
Liberals are echo chamber idiots (Trump just swaying for 20 min at rally gained him votes)