And many of them have reputations for being abrasive or not interested in political savviness, which seems like it will become a problem sooner rather than later.
It's even more fun than that because those appointees don't really run the agency per se. They more direct the agency to go in a direction and the people who run the agency make it happen the best they can. If they don't agree with the appointee then you get some feet dragging
I think we overestimate the willingness of many of these folks to actually do more than a full day's work when it's not paying nearly as much as they're used to and it offers far less prestige than they were expecting.
There was a thing a few dacades ago, the idea that any MBA could run any company just by looking at the spreadsheets. Pretty much destroyed every industry it infected. This is that, next level.
THANK YOU. I will acknowledge that being CEO of a multi-billion dollar company is hard AND SO IS being head of a multi-billion dollar federal agency. American politics is a profession, a craft, and a culture and people spend their whole lives in it.
A key principle of the MAGA movement is that clueless idiots can run things better than doctors, scientists, teachers and government officials who have spent decades honing their craft.
We are about to see how horribly, horribly wrong they are about this.
Which is why there are graduate degrees in public administration that teach governing theories and best practices, just like for business. There is some commonality in management practices between the private and public sector, but success in one does not guarantee success in the other.
TBF, if the DOGE dudes get their way, the only agency with any money left will be the military and even it will have a serious haircut. Maybe it just doesn't matter because they legitimately aren't going to do anything but fire everyone and sell the assets.
Trump is a two-bit wannabe mob boss and manages as such. The fact that he is the fulfillment of the Reagan dream of governance is honestly kind of hilarious.
i think a lot of you people need to decide whether you think trump is going to be an authoritarian monster or a chaos failson because the two are actually in tension with each other.
They’re actually not. Most departments and agencies, they’ll never figure out and they’ll run fine because he doesn’t care about most so it will be business as usual.
There will be chaos at the DOJ and FBI and this chaos will lend itself well to autocracy.
I have a slight disagreement with this framing. Trump will bring chaos. Those he puts in positions in the government will bring the authoritarianism. In think they can both exist.
Maybe I’m not understanding you. Franz Neumann argued in _Behemoth_ that they actually were in tension — both present — in Nazi Germany. I expect the MAGA regime to be both incompetent and brutally authoritarian.
People naturally assume that he has gained experience in running the government and furthering his goals but he has not shown a scintilla of evidence that he learns anything or actually has any goals either. He still a chicken pressing a button and either getting a treat or getting a shock.
The problem is, Right Wingers only read Right Wing social media & then listen to other Right Wing media.
Since they believe all the lies, "shooting themselves in the foot" doesn't happen. Proof: 2016 election & 2024 election.
Right wingers aren’t who I’m talking about. I’m talking about the median voter.
Because these idiots can’t shut their damn mouths and don’t have decades of reputation as a celebrity built up.
Because sure, Trump wins elections. But in the MAGA movement only Trump wins.
Chump and his cult are horribly inept but still capable of great harm. The potential is there. We have underestimated him: his clownery has been his protection.
The range of possible outcomes is broad, and notably includes "Trump dies soon and the question is whether Vance is also a chaos failson". But as others have pointed out before, historically, "monster" and "buffoon" have not been mutually exclusive.
Also why don’t you ask Maggie if she’s going to fucking continue to be his “soft lens” or whatever bullshit. You don’t get to be all edgy when you’re paid by the rag THAT GAVE HIM BACK TO US AGAIN. Fuck man. Seriously.
He wants to be an authoritarian monster. We’re afraid he will be. We hope he continues his track record of being a chaos failson or any kind of failson because that will be less damage. Thank you for coming to my ted talk.
He has a bad crew. They know he is mentally challenged. They have actually written the book on hiring those who will do his will and the policy directives to do it. Chaos. Yes.
he'll be an authoritarian monster in spurts and he'll fade into a chaos failson in between...like an abusive father, he won't always be beating you. sometimes he'll need to watch golf and feel sorry for himself.
Let’s put it this way. I see all the pieces of authoritarianism on the puzzle board and am terrified. That still leaves the core question - will there be the talent to set it up effectively before getting voted out. On that I am thankful he doesn’t prize competence and he rates his own highly.
It’s pretty amazing to me how shambolic it is again. He literally has his pick of all the competent ghouls the right has worked so hard to promote, and he’s still staffing it with his favorite tv characters.
Yes, that's my feeling too. Project 2025 and others had four years to prepare a ready-to-go roster of Gauleiters and Gruppenfuhrers, but instead he's largely still... doing the Trump thing, brain fully melded with the TV.
He’s a wannabe fascist monster who will end up a chaos failson bc he’s terminally incompetent. And frankly he doesn’t give a sh*t about policy now that he’s avoided prison. Lots of golf to play 🏌️♂️⛳️
He wants the former but odds are that the latter will be the actual result and Democrats need to figure out how to contribute to that outcome. Thus far, they’ve haven’t exactly inspired confidence.
3 successive Conservative administrations in Britain tried for years extremely hard to deport refugees to Rwanda and spent billions doing so yet failed to send a single person there against their will.
I sincerely hope the judiciary in the US will act independently and curb the worst excess of the incoming administration, as the judiciary in the UK has tried to do, with limited success, when confronted with unrepresented executive power overreach.
He can absolutely be both. Successful in his most atrocious endeavours, the ones his billionaire puppeteers instigate and a colossal fail on anything that would actually benefit people or country let alone the USAs reputation
every agency and every program represents a political constituency with a direct line to the legislature and specifically to people who do not necessarily depend on trump to get elected. let’s say he leaves the SSA in chaos. do you think that this will just not matter politically?
When in doubt, I ask ChatGPT, who says our institutions will remain intact. It would take more than my short lifetime to eliminate my SS payments. Thankfully.
ChatGPT doesn't know a goddamn thing about anything
I don't mean that in the sense of arguing about this specific issue, I mean that it is literally not capable of determining whether the stuff it outputs is true or false
I don't agree but there is a timeline until it's taken over and propagandized to fit whatever narrative. Right now it does have a lot of good information.
a lot of you seem to basically believe that politics is over, history has ended and the absence of legal or electoral consequences for trump means that he is the only person with agency. you all are recapitulating the basic conceit of trump’s alleged invincibility, but from the center left
I remember Trump telling his base that him winning would mean "they'd never have to vote again" and all that implies, and seems like some also in the center, and on the left have also swallowed that pill of horse shit.
What people are missing is that a lot of people saw how horribly us Liberal/ Progressive Jews were treated by those we thought were our allies this past year.
Liberal Jews know going forward we have no allies & we're no longer willing to aid those who wish us ill, left or right.
... and that quite aside from the pogroms perpetuated and lives lost due to this slander, this was a singularly beneficial thing for the Jews.
Because Jews could see plainly that this "fact" that everyone everywhere believed was utter bullshit. And it made Jews resilient to this kind of garbage.
I've always held that people who find Trump unusually politically skilled have it backward. Trump's only real skill is having zero shame. His success is more a condemnation of the political establishment of both parties that thought norms were good enough.
I agree with you, Jamelle, but some of us came over to Bluesky to continue the discussion about what we can do to turn things around. I am one of those people. Please don't take the outward appearance of temporary despair as an indication of what's in our hearts. We're here because we care.
Also, he's not going to live forever and he is literally the only person to ever catch this lightning in a bottle. Even if human misery is coming, it's worth fighting for less human misery and it's definitely worth fighting for a better future.
Some are doing this.
But others are citing specific things we as individuals, or even as Dems, can't do anything about. And realistically, there are many.
Hot take: Donald Trump exhibits all the contradictions of capitalism, and thus can be enlistes to aid in his own destruction, hastening the end of History and the dawn of the New Man
Scold as you wish, but I'm not sure exactly what you expect to anyone to do. Votes don't have the same impact based upon one's zip code; the opposition party has spent 45 years trying to be GOP-lite; gerrymandering is legal damn near anywhere; and Citizens United pretty much made bribery legal.
A lot of these “you’re all giving up” criticisms are based on observations of how the media is covering it, and how completely impotent the response has been from currently elected Democrats. The “resistance” isn’t happening on social media(nor should it). That’s why we elected the folks we elected.
We need SO MANY more posts telling everyone HOW and WHY it's not hopeless, the things in place that keeps them at bay, from doing as they please. That's more useful than "pessimism = bad".
Im waiting for anything productive and helpful from the finger wagging “stop saying stuff is going to get bad” crowd.
Knowing the nation is doomed and that there will be huge amounts of suffering and death isn’t exactly a fun headspace to be in. Ignoring our reality helps no one.
I hate that he’ll never get his comeuppance. It’s a frustrating wet fart where a bunch of rich freaks bowed to the most pathetic human being to ever be president and they keep letting him get away with it
When laws and democrats show signs of stopping this disaster train, I’ll be glad to be proven wrong
In the meantime I wish people would stop telling us how to feel
Seeing his win and the disappearance of his criminal cases leaves a stone in my stomach that reflects the reality that he pulled off the politically impossible with the full GOP behind it.
The core center-left premise is that we must have qualified technocrats in elected office. Trump, if he cannot destroy it all even if he tries to, is the Satan who perversely proves the nonexistence of God.
The consensus forming outside the US is that the US hegemony is over. This election has shown the US to be an unreliable partner with respect to any and all alliances, treaties, agreements and democratic norms. US military, economy, finance and culture will suffer & cease to lead the western world.
I just think that we are all kind of shell shocked. How could this TOTALLY unqualified man be re-elected? Not only is he unqualified he is a convicted felon!! I am now in the anger stage of “What the f*** America? Why is this person acceptable to be the most influential person in the world?
Like I’m sure you’ve read a few articles on the overturning of Chevron deference and think you know what it means, but with respect, you’re not a lawyer. Nobody can anticipate what that decision alone will do next, regardless of who is president.
Half his cabinet being attention seeking grifters puts them all in tension with each other as well.
Although I have a little doubt in the Supreme Court’s willingness to provide cover for his lousy lawyers
It’s so easy to see why folks are hopeless & cynical. The highest court is a MAGA SCOTUS who granted the king presidential immunity. He’s got the executive and legislative branch under his belt too. The guardrails are gone. The corruption is brazen. It’ll take generations to recover from the damage.
Republicans hold the House by 5 votes - so far. Donnie keeps tapping the House for his cabinet, meaning special elections. They hold the Senate by 7. Not all Rs are Donnie's little meat puppets. Don't be surprised when you see some pushback, especially now that he's floated the idea of arresting
Well, I love it. It's time some of these people got jerked up about chronic dooming. It's privilege. Many Americans are in real peril now, & there are a lot of things to try to do to help them. None of them may work or all may, but there's no excuse to sit down in the road, give up, & abandon them.
I’m not being obstinate, but this is now the second post of yours that I’ve read where you seem to get annoyed that people don’t understand what you’re posting, or in this case your insight. Not sure why.
American Lawyer Brain runs incredibly deep. people think that because Trump has the presidency and the blessing of Supreme Court clerics to do whatever then politics is over
as you've said it's instructive to think about actual dictatorships. regime stability must always rest on the ability to command obedience from key sectors, that's always been true even when covered up by faux-legal constitution worship
What exactly do you expect out of people who have been shouted at by a lot of media and a lot of politicians that the 2024 election was a final battle for democracy?
we just had an election that could have gone the other way, there are a whole lot of steps between that and an actual dictatorship and this is not exactly the a-team trying to transition between the two
Agree that the doomerism is unhelpful, but I’d expect those with “Lawyer Brain” to argue the laws and courts will provide some sort of check on Trump. Who are the high profile lawyers engaging in the doomerism you describe?
He only really skated on emoluments the first time because they ran out the clock, and he seems already primed to be even more flagrant and less discrete this time, absolutely essential that it be brought up against him again (and I have no doubt folks like CREW will try).
I wonder if a lot of that is fueled by the assumption that the Democratic party is unwilling and/or unable to fight back and do said politics, as we all watched Obama squander a house and senate in favor of letting the Republican opposition lead him around by the nose.
It would be swell if your playmates at the NYT could use their megaphone for something other than sanewashing and playing nice with Trump. You guys have power and agency; regular folks have little of either.
It is comforting that once again there were no major irregularities in the 2024 election. That strongly suggests that the system will continue to withstand the significant stresses on it and govt will continue to be accountable to voters.
You’re correct but as I read the stated plans I don’t think civilian dissent to policy or person will be tolerated in any form. If the military capitulates, it will enforce trump’s will upon us. If it refuses orders, we’re in a Constitutional Crisis w SCOTUS stacked against democracy.
Civics and history education in our public schools has been in the shitter for a long time. People choose not to understand how things have been before and how things work right now.
Thank you so much for this thread. People seem to really believe that all of this stuff is going to happen on January 21st. I’ve been a federal employee for over 24 years. The laws and absolutely insane layers to these departments won’t fall in a day and won’t be done by one person.
We cannot work or organize our way out of the climate crisis. Trump is determined to burn four out of the last 5 years we have left before the rise in Co2 to uninhabitable levels gets impossible to roll back. Poor and brown folks will die first. This isn't doomerism: it's life or death, on a timer.
Persuading a few million low-information voters that he could change the price of eggs was the easy part. Redirecting federal agencies controlled by thousands of pages of law and tens of thousands of pages of regulations and staffed by people legally required to follow the rules is the hard part.
It will take a fair bit of time, but you've identified why Project 2025 and Musk's "department" (which has not statutory status as a Department) will try to root out lots of career civil servants.
Blunting those efforts will be important in themselves to slow other erosions.
I appreciate you and your work, Jamelle. And to think, you weren't on my radar until your first guest appearance on Doughboys back in 2019. I am a fan of the fact that you are also a fan.
I'm curious to hear from Susan Sarandon and other people who couldn't vote for Democrats and who claimed to welcome the coming collapse because it was needed. Wonder how they're feeling today
I think many/most people see that Trump got away with Jan 6 and the stolen docs and therefore assume he is all-powerful. But running the government is much harder than dodging prosecutors. And if his last term demonstrated anything, it's that Trump is not very good at governing.
A lot of lawyers are going to make a lot of $ over the next two years-It's my guess the plan will be to get some sorts of injunctions on all of trump's plans-then just slow play it to midterms-Trump always fucks it up so by then people will be souring on him and maybe the Dems can flip the house
On the one hand I worry that they’re going to eliminate NOAA, but I think people will be mad if they can’t get weather reports and all the fish starts tasting like gasoline
Most likely outcome is he installs a bunch of ignorant grifters and they try to steer big federal contracts to their family members and get wrecked by whistleblowers and lawsuits and scandal without achieving much other than wasting some time and money (as with The Wall).
Genuine thank yous for being a measured, intelligent voice of reason. One other thing my humble voice would add, is once his hare brained plans start hitting his supporters hard in their pocketbook, and day to day existence. He's in for serious blowback that Fox won't be able to dissappear.
It the last week, a coup has been foiled and a tyrant toppled. History isn’t over. In America we’ve produced and defeated awful factions, forces, and movements so many times. We need to hang onto the clarity of this moment and come up with a strategy to win, just like we have before.
and his brain is very obviously chunky salsa at this point. he's toast
it may be hopium but i think the fundamental incompetence and trump not actually caring about anything other than being the favorite boy who wins the popularity contest means the worst isn't going to happen. it'll be normal bad
I could hope you're right, but he's also keenly aware of how close he came to actually be punished for something. I think he intends to insure that can never happen again.
He has underlings who are very focused. But also very jealous of one another and in competition for the boss’s favor. That’s how it worked with Hitler.
My poor teenager’s been freaking out about the next 4 years, & I keep explaining that the US has lots of other power centers beyond the White House, which can/will push back against crazy Trump actions that would hurt their interests. That helped calm them a bit.
Recognizing the symptoms of collapse in a society has little to do with one's agency one way or the other. But it's certainly true Trump isn't invincible. He's just a symptom.
i will say that yes this sucks that people at the top are scrambling and that's scary but there are also advocates, and organizers and other do-good people that exist too and they're also here
This is because the interval between election and inauguration is Trump’s honeymoon with the idea of power. He’s bragging, inflated, overblown, throwing his weight around. It’s all wind.
Naturally we’re appalled; but a collision between Trump’s rocky ego and the hard place of reality is imminent.
I’ve been wondering why he was allowed to ostensibly hold high-level meetings at his club pre-election with no comment from the WH. And now Macron in Paris. As Stone said, just act like you won and people won’t contest it. DEMs never even asked for a recount—or about voter rolls—or mail-in ballots.
This is an important point.
He can say anything right now and get away with not explaining how, when, under what authority, on whose budget, and why it wasn’t done yesterday.
Birthright citizenship is a great example.
I can't speak for others, but I think there is a sincere and overwhelming despair that is causing this sort of mentality. I know for me, it has been soul-crushing to see time and time and time again, those with money and power not be held accountable. (c)
Trump especially has seemed to benefit from this with how brazen and multiple his crimes are, yet he was voted into the most powerful position in the country for a second time. I don't think we should give up, not at all, but it's hard to have faith in a system that is lacking in major examples.
You’re absolutely right—it’s not over. But we must FIGHT harder than ever to protect the working class, the environment, and our democracy. This isn’t going to be easy, but NOTHING worthwhile ever is. We won’t let Trump and his cronies win. We’re in this for the long haul!
#MakeAmericaFairAgain
I'll speak only for myself. Having seen how few repercussions have been felt by any members of the first administration, the looming reality that what convictions were attained for jan 6 are about to be undone, the oligarchs and toadies being nominated for the second term, and having seen no reason
to believe that Democrats or the national media will make even a similarly ineffectual attempt to hold anyone in the incoming admin to account in any meaningful way, I have concluded that the necessary thing for me to do is consider the financial well being and safety of myself and my household
And, regrettably, that means lying low. I also feel utterly betrayed by this country, and I'm of the belief that the people who voted for this need to be the ones to clean it up. I'm tired of beating my damn head against the wall.
Second Trump is clown car meets grifting racket.
The nominations for the first category are meant to shock and appall us.
Those for the second category are meant to enrich der Fuhrer.
Naw. We feel we fought as hard as we could against tyranny and a known criminal. Absent was the justice we counted on. And the constitutional protection we failed to recognize had been stolen by the SCOTUS. Where are they?
Rereading Gene Sharp's Power and Struggle. There are so many moving parts that have to happen to give authoritarians power. It is not monolithic and can be slowed, deteriorated, and obstructed. Learned helplessness is not the way.
My plan is to obstruct in any way I can. Slow them down, don't cooperate, ask endless questions, STFU as the video says. Do not capitulate, do not collaborate.
I appreciate this insight and agree with it but it’s been very easy to fall into the that thinking, it just seems like nothing matters no matter how awful he is people only love him more. Trying to avoid it
The problem with the Dems scaring the shit out of people to try get them to vote is that when they lost people were just completely defeated because they spent 4 years convincing us that another Trump presidency was the end of the universe.
It’s like nobody here is aware of what’s been going on in Texas these last 5 years.
Texas has been the incubator for the fascism project, and they’re ready to take it national. So far, they’ve run up against zero opposition at the federal level. Zero. Other countries have stopped it in its tracks.
Some of this is also because a lot of Americans don't know the history of their own country. There have a lot of dark times, plenty of situations that seemed to favor the rich and the venal.
If you have Democratic representatives, I recommend contacting them right now and tell them you oppose any pardon for Trump. Let's stamp that idea out now. Trump may never see the inside of a cell, but we still want to make sure everything he does becomes public and that consequences are known.
Trump will do stupid unpopular stuff that causes the suffering among his supporters necessary to bring him down. He's already fucking up. Meanwhile, keep your cool and support the opposition where you can.
Trump is set to be the Immune Unitary Executive backed by the Christofascist endangered patriarchy that is a threatened Beast in a civilizational corner.
Trump will have no checks and balances. The Supreme Court belongs to him.
Congress is his defensive tackle.
I find THAT incredibly annoying.
But isn’t it? Doesn’t it seem clear that the Heritage Fnd’s goal is to repeal the Constitution and put their own Christofascist rule of law in place? Then they end elections, k*ll off Trump, and put Vance in as Supreme Leader or some shit?
The sort of people who are doing this are more comfortable with punching down than punching up, anyway. They scold leftists for acting out against the powerful and ultra-wealthy. The "centrist" types are just selfish and lazy, and punching down is easy work for the comfortable who like to lick boots
This seems like the thing where people learn how to engage with politics via political leaders. Most Dem politicians are acting shellshocked and throwing in the towel, normal Dems are gonna take those cues
Thanks for trying to puncture the … is it denial? Disassociation? I appreciate everyone still talking loud about what’s not okay about going along with the agenda-setting. Premature capitulation bodes badly for everyone (including those trying to cover up, I bet you’re already known)
Rs hold the House by 5 votes, the Senate by 7. Even if all Rs were obedient little servants (they're not, look at Thune's response to the idea of recess appointments), he doesn't "control everything".
my rough prediction fwiw it's that it'll be 2016-20 but with the damage turned up 15% by slightly more experience available and the consequences of the remaining chaos being substantially nastier because of institutional guardrails eroding. Not a death-blow but a lot of work is needed.
Give us a minute. All this shit has been traumatizing, from 2016 with a disordered personality running the country to surviving a pandemic. It’s ok to feel defeated for a moment ffs. We will regroup and fight so
please don’t scold us right now.
What he's saying resonates with me, because there's been nothing *but* scolding from the self-anointed "Progressive Wing." Look at the https://democrats.org account for a few (thousand) examples. Those posters could have just ignored the account, walked on, spent their time doing something constructive.
YES. Our anxiety has anxiety and telling us not to express our panic and despair is, frankly, unkind. I hid this stuff behind a mask of fake okayness for far too long, until I finally learned that owning our trauma is the way to heal. If that annoys people, they can keep on walking.
I'm becoming increasingly convinced that a lot of the center-left/liberal dedication to the idea of Trump as god-appointed authoritarian is coming from people who want authoritarianism, probably because they think it's good business for their online punditry grift
I mean I really go back and forth with which is most likely to happen. I’m afraid of WWII conditions repeating but “hopeful” that his stupidity will save us from the worst? But I still think a lot of bad shit will happen.
That's the real deep state right there. There are popular agencies and programs with real constituencies who aren't just going to quietly chant "usa! usa!" while Trump gets of rid of their real, tangible benefits.
The point is this shit requires buy in from people for whom there still can be political consequences for breaking shit their voters care about. Trump alone can’t just say shit and thereby magically accomplish it.
Yep 438 Congresscritters all want to get re-elected 2 years from now. As long as their constituents can be informed of what they broke, they’ll pay a steep price. I really worry about those comms though.
the VA stuff alone is a nuclear minefield in a LOT of swing states and districts. Virginia alone is a place where now that hes no longer top of the ticket is swingy!
A large number of people (incorrectly imho) believe Trump got all those votes from people who ignore the world
More accurately, they may ignore the truth of the world, but they see when things fail and blame it on someone. Arguably, the same people blamed it on Trump in 2020 and then Biden in 2024.
Gnawing at me is how we don't consider what happened to the Republican party as the map. The party has largely crumbled. In some part due to the threat of physical intimidation. See Romney, etc. So, why do we not assume that that is in the cards for the bureaucracy?
Do you think the threat of a GOP primary, with funding from one or all of the billionaires in the cabinet, is a risk to the traditional political calculations? Is the threat from the right or left more of a threat in the short term? And is politics the core focus?
You’d think being the reason for extending pandemic which killed a million Americans would be disqualifying in itself, and in 2020 it was.
The people literally do not care as long as their party wins. All they do is blame the other party for the bad things that literally have (R)’s signature on it
With the disinformation machine that got him elected, it kind of depends on how effectively they can keep that going over the next 2 years imo. The midterms are everything. We have to keep them out of a supermajority. That's when it would go from really bad to catastrophic.
Exactly. I do not think the investment banker who became CEO of Fiserv for orchestrating the merger with First Data has the experience to restructure the SSA. Run it? Possibly.
Mafia bust out economics they don't have to run it well they just have to break it enough they can justify selling it off to their friends what Dejoy has been doing with the post office we will see with everything else
I think he might finally find the third rail of our politics and for all of his talk of the deep state the second he materially harms and facet of the social safety net in a way that is provably done by his admin he and his enablers begin to bleed supporters. These things are real and matter.
There are some examples where he made a mess of things and the voters didn't hold him accountable. Some of these examples are prominent. It's not completely outlandish to think what happened before could happen again.
Ineffective authoritarian monster due to a tendency to be a chaos failson AND facing early internal and external crises not seen in 2016-2019. All to be complicated by an aged mind and increased involvement by aspiring oligarchs.
Depends on the minute. He'll announce plans to enact exe orders which themselves will involve plans to actual enact an exec order that does something, and then he'll change it. He'll fire people, and some replacements won't even be in before they're out. Fitstart authoritarianism and oligarchy.
I think the problem with this is, by now we cannot estimate what is really going to happen on Jan 20, when he steps into power.
Today, nobody can even say if his picks for the cabinet will last to this date.
Sure, stupids like Hegseth or Patel are unfit to serve, but will they be in power?
chaos failson employing a lot of both authoritarian monsters and chaos failsons, who will (hopefully) spend most of the next two years sniping at each other
Yeah, I’m not buying this idea that they’re in conflict. I think he is actually a chaos monkey who wants to be an authoritarian monster and the question is how much he’ll achieve vs how much he’ll just break things.
so far he seems less restrained in what he's willing to try but less capable of succeeding at bigger ambitions.
when he tries to undermine the midterms the much more likely outcome than literal civil war is that he just undermines himself (some combo of publicly and privately), DOJ, or both.
Gaetz's failure, Hegseth's likely failure, and the quickness with which they abandoned recess cabinet appointments (lol) have all already made him weaker out of the gate.
He is senile and just listens to whoever can manage to get into the same room as him. The chaotic situation you'd expect from that is what we're seeing now
If it's any consolation, the strain of a second term of Presidency - as senile and decrepit and ailing and juiceless as he is - will almost certainly kill him.
At no point is that true. He might be a chaos failson, but he 1000% intends to be an authoritarian monster. He will succeed on some things despite being an idiot. And we have to pray that the things he fails are the big ones.
They're not; they're two sides of the same coin. The ruthless imposition of will is the essence of authoritarian monstrosity—and depends on contempt for order, which is the essence of chaos. Fascisms succeed because they destabilize their opponents; they're unpredictable. That's also why they fail.
The issue is if it was just him he would be chaos. But depending upon who else is in the mix(behind the scenes and as support staff) the dynamic is in flux due to unknown factors.
it was near-impossible to successfully argue for the existential threat he is because he’s a flabby goof and therefore harmless. people could not reconcile that he is both a fascist nightmare and an entertainingly mean mr. magoo.
Umm.. umm... umm... I'l go with.... He'll try to be an authoritarian but will instead be a chaos failson because, let's face it, prior performance predicts personal prospects. He'll fail just as badly at authoritarianism as he does in every other endeavour.
So... door number three, thank you.
Some people feel like he's not just a seemingly unstoppable and all-powerful authoritarian monster but also one that's brilliant while being as scary and as larger-than-life as any supernatural comic book/horror movie villain is. I know the next 4 years will be hard, but I'm tired of the doomerism.
Isn't it a myth though that authoritarian were ruthlessly efficient in running their governments? Haven't they always put incompetent toadies in positions of power?
In tension, but not mutually exclusive. Look at that tiny mustached Austrian failboat who sailed Germany into starting WWII and got about 12 million people altogether summarily murdered in the camps. It's never just about the individual on top.
My nightmare for Trump 2 was he found an army of Bill Barrs. Instead he's loading his administration with a bunch of drunks and conspiracy cranks. I'm honestly relieved.
I think they assume because he failed continually upward literally his whole life and escaped both conviction and actual consequences for things like sexual assault and defrauding everyone and running off with national intelligence and now holds the highest office in the land...
I totally get being afraid / overwhelmed / pessimistic, but it's a self-fulfilling prophecy too and we can't indulge too much of it. Especially in public where despair can be infectious. (Doesn't mean to pretend you're immune, but be disciplined about venting.) We have models for success.
Oh by no means am I giving up or giving in, but the line between "proposed" and "opposed" and "a done deal" are long but not NOT connected, too. My fear is not productive but that doesn't mean it doesn't exist. <3
I'm not saying both outcomes cancel one another out, either, I guess. This is the Fuck You Presidency, he's literally okay with chaos if it means he's on the news some more. He's a yawning chasm of need with no known bottom or limit.
none of those are mutually exclusive, authoritarians are super egocentric and put their own interest over anything else. just look at how Dubai is colapcing because the morons in charge just dont want to build with climate change into account.
To be honest, I’m as much afraid of unofficial actions against people I care about as I am of official stuff. Even without being president, Trump and his crew were able to make life pretty hellacious for the Haitians of Springfield Ohio. And I very much fear what Stephen Miller will do without any
I vote for “chaos failson”, possibly even more so than in his first term. There is a HUGE gap between what he blathers about wanting to do and what he will be able to do - especially if we get our stuff together and push back firmly and continuously.
With all due respect, I think the two can coexist: Putin’s regime is perhaps the best current example. Most (if not all) authoritarian governments are incompetent. Behind a few Potemkin infrastructure projects they have pervasive corruption and dysfunction.
I'm hoping the folks in civil service who remember the last time are going into full "quietly resist the tyranny" mode and will will follow the CIA handbook and push him toward failson.
lol he ain't gonna live that long, he looks and sounds like SHIT, he's sundowning before 4PM more and more and he's one tantrum from an aortic rupture.
I do like the word "failson". I also like that it creates a subclass of middle class - the self made middle class person that does not have family or money to insulate them from failure and live in terror (imposter syndrome) of failing.
Yeah probably the scariest thing is nazi governance being well run is kind of a myth too. Their death camps were supposed to be work camps originally, they totally fucked up an entire massive war and it’s impossible to tell how badly much of their plans. Still came out very bad. But yeah…
I’m hoping a chaos failson. Nothing about his cabinet seems competent. I dread the damage certain people will go through. I believe he will try to govern through marketing, none of it will be real. No real change to the better, just theatre provided for the far right.
I’m leaning more & more towards Mango Mao, total chaos Shartnado. Wonder when we all get told to gather our various home PCs all together to start collectively mining ‘the bitcoins’
1. Shore up his power and personal safety until he dies.
2. Cripple every regulatory agency that's ever affected his business.
3. Redress every old grievance.
He can do them with a mix - sending chaos to regulatory agencies that have regulated him like the EPA and SEC, and shore up his power base within DOJ and FBI. I don't think a couple of bad picks necessarily means he's going back to 2016 Failson Trump.
Trump is a wannabe old-fashioned tinpot dictator who is too lazy to actually tinpot. That requires a different effort than the hybrid regime of today's autocrats, for which he has hired people who will be busy stuffing their own pockets.
I regret to inform you that every single time I have done a deep dive/research into ANY authoritarian of note, he also turns out to be a chaos failson. There is always the laughable, the moronic, the incompetent, right there with the horrific, the nauseating, the terrifying.
Agree strongly with this. A lot of what Trump and his accomplices want to do will be unpopular and cost lots of political capital. This gang will be error prone. A few key fumbles and he’s vulnerable, but not if the opposition surrenders in advance.
Not really. Authoritarian =/= Totalitarian. In fact most authoritarians are defined by corruption and incompetence. Trump will fail to bring 90% of his agenda to life... but that 10% will still be devastating to untold millions.
Authoritarian monster would be the best chance to wake the MAGA cult as to the damage they’ve unleashed onto themselves.
But chaos fails on ensures the rest of us avoid the worst of it.
Tough call.
Is there a third option where they all just eat each other and we get everything that’s left?
Chaos failson with authoritarian tendencies ain't exactly great, as those of us old enough to remember 2020 are well aware. Just because Milley wouldn't let him tear-gas the protestors doesn't mean he didn't want to.
“People need to decide whether Hitler is going to be an authoritarian monster or a chaos failson because the two are actually in tension with each other”
I should add that I didn't mean that to be dooming. I don't think politics is over, at all. I think Trump probably wants to sow chaos and get away with shit, but I don't necessarily think he will.
The thing I’m the most worried about is “he uses the political response as an excuse to invoke the Insurrection Act.” And of course he’d need the bureaucracy to carry that out. So keeps me up at night is worrying how much he would need, and how much he would have.
Yeah, that's the part that has me worried. Katrina became a textbook example of government failure because Bush 43 appointed some dimwit to head FEMA. There's a gazillion tons of highly corrosive radioactive waste from the cold war in eastern WA, and some Trump appointee is in charge of maintenance.
It's not hard if your objective is to destroy or disrupt these institutions, instead of run them.
At the very least, Trump does not care much if these departments operate well or poorly. He only cares if the people running them are loyal to him above all else.
They don't care, because they don't believe the agencies do anything valuable. They've intertwined their egos and identities into this weird fan fiction universe they've built.
They'll be dead by the time they would have realized they're ruining generations of work.
People would not hire someone to run a major company with no experience. Shows how little people think of our federal agencies when they’re among the biggest and most complex orgs that exist
Depends. There's a staff, departments, field offices, contract staff (esp IT) who COULD be used if you had no interest in doing the job then they would.
To do the job, set strategy and goals, develop service implementation, get the right people, obsess over budget. I think that's a hard job.
But I, a complete and utter buffoon, think this incredibly intricate system, that I do not want to even attempt to comprehend, doesn’t look that hard, therefore it must be easy.
The main line of thinking at CMS is that as long as Oz doesn’t act like too much of a jerk they’ll just keep showing up and get through it, because there is no way to replace the technical expertise that keeps things functioning
I think a lot of people come into cabinet level jobs without much experience. But there are layers upon layers of career people below them who know how to make the places work.
Comments
We are about to see how horribly, horribly wrong they are about this.
Where's that law written. Haven't seen it.
authoritarian failson
chaos monster
There will be chaos at the DOJ and FBI and this chaos will lend itself well to autocracy.
If you look closely he appears to be the chaos failson. But if you stand back and take it all in he’s still also the authoritarian monster
Authoritarians tend to last a while, but are terribly corrupt and otherwise incompetent if too much is left to their decisions.
If they have others do little things and stay mostly out they may last longer.
They only seem super effective if you only look at the horrors they unleash.
I think it’s kinda like a CEO. Most are pretty shit but they make things look pretty to get their payout. Others have to clean up after.
https://www.newsweek.com/hitler-incompetent-lazy-nazi-government-clown-show-opinion-1408136
It’s not proof positive but there’s definitely evidence one person can be both.
https://www.newsweek.com/hitler-incompetent-lazy-nazi-government-clown-show-opinion-1408136
Without the internet it was easier to hide that stupidity behind a veneer of competence.
With the internet you hand a bunch of screaming morons a megaphone to broadcast their dumbest ideas.
Letting them shoot themselves in the foot.
Since they believe all the lies, "shooting themselves in the foot" doesn't happen. Proof: 2016 election & 2024 election.
Because these idiots can’t shut their damn mouths and don’t have decades of reputation as a celebrity built up.
Because sure, Trump wins elections. But in the MAGA movement only Trump wins.
Appointing out of their depth Chaos failsons is a tactic of the authoritarian monster goal.
(To be clear, I 100% agree that the dooming is silly and counterproductive.)
But this sure feels like more of the same Dictator Theater. We’ll see what happens after the inauguration
https://consoc.org.uk/executive-power-and-the-constitution-is-the-uk-government-getting-more-powerful/
I don't mean that in the sense of arguing about this specific issue, I mean that it is literally not capable of determining whether the stuff it outputs is true or false
the only thing ChatGPT "knows" is how likely a given word or set of words are to follow a different word or set of words
it's literally just fancy autocomplete
How many Republican candidates in 2010 paid a price for Bush trying to privatize social security? I’d say zero!
Republicans now claim to be anti-war!
Now, there may be a lot of churn in the actual people holding office, but Republican Party will not really be held to account.
Liberal Jews know going forward we have no allies & we're no longer willing to aid those who wish us ill, left or right.
He retold the story of blood libel, how everyone at one point believed Jews put Christian children's blood into Matzah Ball soup...
Because Jews could see plainly that this "fact" that everyone everywhere believed was utter bullshit. And it made Jews resilient to this kind of garbage.
Or who said "Nicky Halley Nicky Halley Nicky Halley" during a rally so . . . he'd know who his primary opponent was?
It will be a shit-show, and one whose chaos can be a campaign issue.
Probably felt like 400 minutes to the attendees.
But others are citing specific things we as individuals, or even as Dems, can't do anything about. And realistically, there are many.
less of a endorsement of trumps agency, more of an acknowledgment of the opposition's impotence
Knowing the nation is doomed and that there will be huge amounts of suffering and death isn’t exactly a fun headspace to be in. Ignoring our reality helps no one.
In the meantime I wish people would stop telling us how to feel
Remember, most bullies are cowards.
As a Canadian, this is my greatest fear. 🇨🇦
Although I have a little doubt in the Supreme Court’s willingness to provide cover for his lousy lawyers
Blunting those efforts will be important in themselves to slow other erosions.
it may be hopium but i think the fundamental incompetence and trump not actually caring about anything other than being the favorite boy who wins the popularity contest means the worst isn't going to happen. it'll be normal bad
I think when Trump goes it'll be a bloodbath to see who wants to be in charge. And they'll have nowhere near the power that Trump thinks he has.
But I'm just saying that these appointments are driven by his self interest more than a complex political objective.
Keep telling people about any Congressional SR or HR coming up for a vote that are complete trash.
My rep is going to know my name. He is going to get very interesting voice mails on these hateful votes.
Naturally we’re appalled; but a collision between Trump’s rocky ego and the hard place of reality is imminent.
He can say anything right now and get away with not explaining how, when, under what authority, on whose budget, and why it wasn’t done yesterday.
Birthright citizenship is a great example.
>how
SCOTUS throws away precedent and kills off the 14th by upholding his executive order on birthright
#MakeAmericaFairAgain
The nominations for the first category are meant to shock and appall us.
Those for the second category are meant to enrich der Fuhrer.
A lot of people are more afraid of Trump than they should be. They should be looking for vulnerabilities instead of quaking in fear.
Texas has been the incubator for the fascism project, and they’re ready to take it national. So far, they’ve run up against zero opposition at the federal level. Zero. Other countries have stopped it in its tracks.
Trump will have no checks and balances. The Supreme Court belongs to him.
Congress is his defensive tackle.
I find THAT incredibly annoying.
Stand firm.
I learned years ago that I prefer issue advocacy. You just always push. Sometimes easy push, sometimes hard push. But you just push.
Less Denethor, more Gandalf.
1) You don't just stop and disband after an election.
2) If you DO want to get involved in an election, you have a group of people ready to go.
please don’t scold us right now.
This scolding is very off-putting and unhelpful.
More accurately, they may ignore the truth of the world, but they see when things fail and blame it on someone. Arguably, the same people blamed it on Trump in 2020 and then Biden in 2024.
Do you think the threat of a GOP primary, with funding from one or all of the billionaires in the cabinet, is a risk to the traditional political calculations? Is the threat from the right or left more of a threat in the short term? And is politics the core focus?
The people literally do not care as long as their party wins. All they do is blame the other party for the bad things that literally have (R)’s signature on it
"Fun!!"
However, his party will accomplish a number of authoritarian and monstrous things, not least because of the chaos he spews.
I think the problem with this is, by now we cannot estimate what is really going to happen on Jan 20, when he steps into power.
Today, nobody can even say if his picks for the cabinet will last to this date.
Sure, stupids like Hegseth or Patel are unfit to serve, but will they be in power?
With all of this "elements of uncertainty" it is hard to predict if he's collapse or not, how great the damage will be, and how much time ...
Just my two cents from oversea Germany.
Best wishes Martin
when he tries to undermine the midterms the much more likely outcome than literal civil war is that he just undermines himself (some combo of publicly and privately), DOJ, or both.
There's no real reason why he can't be both.
it was near-impossible to successfully argue for the existential threat he is because he’s a flabby goof and therefore harmless. people could not reconcile that he is both a fascist nightmare and an entertainingly mean mr. magoo.
So... door number three, thank you.
I totally get being afraid / overwhelmed / pessimistic, but it's a self-fulfilling prophecy too and we can't indulge too much of it. Especially in public where despair can be infectious. (Doesn't mean to pretend you're immune, but be disciplined about venting.) We have models for success.
over and over and over and
WSJ line of reason was exactly both!
Trump is authoritarian monster, but because of his incompetence and chaos, it does not matter!
1. Shore up his power and personal safety until he dies.
2. Cripple every regulatory agency that's ever affected his business.
3. Redress every old grievance.
One hopes, anyway!
But chaos fails on ensures the rest of us avoid the worst of it.
Tough call.
Is there a third option where they all just eat each other and we get everything that’s left?
I think you're going to see a combo of the two with a little musk and project 2025 thrown in for flavor.
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His only goals are money, power, and fame. He wants what he wants no matter what, like a child.
Unfortunately, the people around him will move mountains to please his every whim. THAT'S what scares me.
I guess my immediate response is that you're thinking about this a lot more sensibly than he may be.
He doesn't want a repeat of the last time, when some people had even a small amount of backbone.
At the very least, Trump does not care much if these departments operate well or poorly. He only cares if the people running them are loyal to him above all else.
They'll be dead by the time they would have realized they're ruining generations of work.
To do the job, set strategy and goals, develop service implementation, get the right people, obsess over budget. I think that's a hard job.