The AI bubble was inflated based on the idea that we need bigger models that both are trained and run on bigger and even larger GPUs. A company came along that has undermined the narrative - ways both substantive and questionable - and now the market panicked that $200bn got wasted on AI capex
Reposted from
Seya
Can someone explain it to me like I'm stupid?
Comments
You did not answer that question as if they were stupid.
The costs of training and inference have collapsed, so we should see a thousand new models within months.
Training data availability hasn't been solved, nor have the IP issues, or the model contamination issues, or the task contamination issues...
All that's gone is the value of the IP in OpenAI and their business model.
They're fucked.
Training data contamination isn't really a concern -- these days they use models to create synthetic data.
https://simonwillison.net/2024/Jul/19/
The IP issues are also not real -- summarizing content with a computer is not copyright infringement.
Apple was ahead of everyone else on the on-device path. This might change that
Deepseek: Work smarter
Techbros: Oh shit, we wasted a lot of money.
Open Source: focus on efficiency so more people can run/contribute.
Also, no amount of computing power could ever have turned Super Auto-Complete into something it wasn't.
like, they didn't work even in their originating fiction. they shouldn't be the benchmark or the goal.
I’m now smirking uncontrollably
https://huggingface.co/deepseek-ai/DeepSeek-R1/tree/main
So nearly 1TB of RAM, which obviously does not exist for Macs.
So you can do some things with Macs, but it will always be inferior to special purpose hardware, which you can rent in the cloud.
More like the first castle to be built in the swamp.
It was never about building a useful tool for humanity.
They make graphics cards, but they're a trillion dollar company, and they don't have any way to descale to the profitable graphics card company they used to be that the shareholders will accept
Free and cheap to run was not on their radar.
Those got reversed in the 2010's and now the goal is the most, the value is a tactic that can be / is thrown away.
Keep doing what you’re doing. It makes a difference, sincerely.
Because I had no goddammed idea what any of this was all about. In this regard I be dumb
or perhaps more directly, like a book on bottom card dealing. Sure you can ban the book but everyone's already read it. If Deepseek is banned, there will be 1000s of Deepseeks on every college campus
I have no idea how much you could parallelize Deepseek training compared to OpenAI, but this could be pretty good news for hardware vendors and international cooperation.
Earnings for Microsoft on Jan 29 and Google feb 4
I guess the jobs they'll create will be about dismantling and recycling them...
Why why why do people believe that rich tech bros would do anything good for humanity...?
Microsoft and Google’s business service offerings have a level of lock in.
He seems not to care about climate much, except as an excuse to push nuclear.
Leads me to believe the cell, laptop, software markets are basically tapped out for growth.
I don’t think they can survive.
They have spent so much and promised so much ROI, they cannot afford to accommodate the market, so they will seek to control appearances.
If economic progress is about innovation & productivity (getting more from less), then the efficiency gains here should be lauded.
Unless of course it's not about efficiency but about protecting vested interests.
I wonder how long until Trumpasaurus Rex hits China with yuge tariffs to further punish Americans for him not understanding tariffs.
Not that it was a trustworthy investment to begin with.
Seeing that unravel is a small ray of light, I guess.
This just highlights that "AI" is just a money making effort and has nothing to do with any societal benefit. Par for the course with our new tech billionaires.
Or is that just wishful thinking?
Or it might fall out of favor entirely because it is no longer profitable to shove it into everything.
Is more careful training/labeling of inputs the reason?
Honestly, just looking for ideas. I'll take anything up to and including that cool thing I'm not supposed to talk about.
This company in China made basically the same sandwich with basic stuff from the grocery store, and then they posted the recipe for free on their blog
Who's with me in betting it was a whole lot more than $200 billion. Venture capitalism has a remarkable ability to shove it's entire head up it's collective ass and claim they're smelling roses.
Regardless, it didn't take a genius economist to understand that something as expensive yet useless as gen AI would drop so hard.
I really don't know what they thought would happen.
On an unrelated note Non-stop is an interesting book
https://youtu.be/x_qg6bjHBMU?si=EQLETDWPY1wnB2pg
Oh, how the tables have turned
Wait for the flood of reports saying it gives crap answers
Like, aren't the people who are managing the money in these markets supposed to be insightful?
As for insightful: If any of them had that capacity it would quickly overwhelmed by greed
FOMO FOMO FOMO
They're betting on a future so big they can afford to play fast an loose.
Same as Crypto/NFTs/Metaverses
like AI is seen as a highly limited thing because until last month only 3~6 companies could even produce the AI models that everybody else built on.
They are amazing and save me tons of time.
Most people have not had that experience. The typical perception of LLMs is slop images and garbage Google summaries, hence the belief by the public that the tech industry is going insane.
Efficiency tools dont dominate the market like this.
I saw someone brag in the news the other day that AI is so advanced it can now your grocery list. Not a huge selling point, yet one of the only concrete ones non-coders are being pitched. Neither brings stuff to my door for free
Businesses that had been looking to replace employees for cheap will advocate for the cheapest model to maximize profit and lobby congress for the right and senators want their bribe bucks
"Everything is fine.
FEED ME MORE MONEY."
NVIDIA has seen insane record breaking stock growth from showing their Cadillac priced outfitting of datacenters “specifically for AI.”
When you find out it was all a scam and your share is actually worth zero, then the million just disappears. But it only ever existed on paper. All i did was waste/steal your 10K.
Also could China just be lying about evading export controls?
The biggest lie perpetuated is more brute force will reach the next inflection point, when over tuning is already happening w/ more training leading to worse model outcomes.
I'm a former PMO and data analyst - the first person that should be automated - yet LLMs can't even produce most simple DAX and SQL for a slightly nuanced request. what a waste
The all too round venn diagram of worst possible rookie mistakes
Better cancel all those plans for new coal plants, bros.
The widow of King Richard II, Anne of Bohemia, married Thomas Holland after Richard's death. Holland was her second husband. They married in 1408, after Richard II died in 1399. Anne had been Richard II’s first wife, but she passed away in 1394, 5 years before Richard’s death.
Would be amusing if this pulls back US companies from their fair use maximalism
Join me in 30 years to hear how oh, I dunno, Nigeria got big by ripping "us" off. And they work for nothing
Can't speak to the quality of those local models as I don't really use them, but do we actually need new GPUs for this crap? No.
(please note that /s stands for sarcasm)
That’s just something made up to fear monger, kinda like the idea of immigrants stealing jobs or whatever, to promote fear.
People still need to edit, create, use AI even if there was a huge uptick of use by companies.
There may be have been trillions dumped into this hole.
Yes, you could try to tariff the trained model, but that only needs to be imported to the US once if they want to set up a US host for it.
https://bsky.app/profile/shorelined.bsky.social/post/3lgpwivms5s2w
I would rewrite it as:
US AI Bros: "for 600 billion, we can double your investment in a few years and just maybe change the world in the future" 🤩
CN AI Bros: "6 million, and we include a free ham sandwich right now." 🥸
🙅♂️
💊 They don't work unless you take em.
I'm beginning to see a pattern!