People in tech talk about the idea of a “10x programmer” — someone whose work is worth that of 10 others. I get the impression Musk etc think they can apply it all over the federal workforce but like… there’s no such thing as a 10x ATC navigational aid maintenance worker. Some jobs just need people.
Reposted from
Katie Mack
Abruptly firing people who work in air traffic control is like murdering your own soldiers in the middle of a war.
Even if you think things now aren’t working as efficiently as they should there’s no clear path to recovering from this; it’s just a really extremely foolish and dangerous thing to do.
Even if you think things now aren’t working as efficiently as they should there’s no clear path to recovering from this; it’s just a really extremely foolish and dangerous thing to do.
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“I am the special one whose superpowers are insufficiently praised.”
Even the best possible health care workers for example can only be one place at a time and treat so many people. Understaffed hospitals experience more deaths!
This is all about shrinking the size of government for ideology (and also to avoid paying higher taxes).
They really don't care what happens next.
But I also think there are ∞X productivity differences in software.
Complex software projects can totally go two ways:
Programmer A produces a non-working code-base that is a liability.
Programmer B produces a working code-base that is an asset.
∞X
Like "kilo grams added" would be a good metric for building an aeroplane.
The wrong lines of code can set a project back for years, or even kill it.
https://www.freecodecamp.org/news/we-fired-our-top-talent-best-decision-we-ever-made-4c0a99728fde/
This doesn't work in places where making mistakes along the way is unacceptable.
He did it by being given the best equipment and a team of people to do all the support work - less heroic single worker and more named individual in new production method.🤷♂️
I had a guy try to use his personal KPIs to justify the myth in this exact situation.
I just showed him his error introduction rate, and the complexity and churn measures on his code, and he stopped spouting it around me.
However, since it's on the topic, I would like to offer this: https://taylor.town/-10x
> +10x engineers may be mythical, but -10x engineers exist.
It's not so much that they see themselves as better at specific jobs, it's that they consider their lives to literally have orders of magnitude more value than ours.
While modern tech allows some jobs to be far more efficient than they ever were in the past, the number of musicians needed for a live performance of a Beethoven string quartet is currently the same as was needed in the 19th century.
Some jobs need N people. Full stop.
If 1 woman needs 9 months to deliver 1 child, how much time do 9 women need for 1 child?
Yes, you can scale down and get more efficient in some, even many ways. But not all of it even in Software.
Baumol's cost disease means that jobs with fixed manpower costs effectively go *up* in price while everything else gets more efficient.
Then again, 9mo+Baumol might explain 1st world birth-rates.
“An expert is a person who has exhausted the mistakes it’s possible to make in a given field” is some true ass shit.
Abandoning that shows complete lack of any experience on Musk or his team's behalf
If you look into the origins of the myth, it came from a single "study" which was just asking a handful of people at a single company what they thought.
I've worked with some amazing programmers over the last 30-years and I'd say there are really good programmers and really bad ones, but most fall in the middle.
And yet, there are still these idiots who are so clueless they haven’t learned this yet.
Aren’t humans tragic.
Generally this means someone with basic competence in the field furiously pushing burnout or a strong personality stealing others' work. Both are not sustainable, especially in research and long-term projects.
Guess which he chose.
But I like "code janitor" a lot.
That seems more like what's going on here.
The idea they'll replace a nuanced legacy codebase quickly with "modern" is bullshit: they're just gonna slap a UI on it and hack in their own autocratic impulses, like with Twitter.
Mostly wanted to give nuance to how this got to the intersection of modern buzzword-compliance, incompetence, and evil. Fools leading fools, with an agenda.
It's why he's brought in programmers and demanded access to computer systems; all of the data needs to be scraped and fed to the learning algorithm. Searching for fraud requires accountants.
A lot of government work is systems maintenance.
The whole meritocracy theology of silicon valley is a sham.
It's delusions of grandeur.
Leave them alone and they'll burn out or bolt.
I expect a lot of bolting.
It takes others 10 times more work to fix everything they did.
a 10x dev can produce 10x the value in the same amount of time.
Yes people like Elon will slave drive but these are different ideas. We need to pay 10x people better that but CS:666 is law
Most CFOs loves 1x devs they can pay 1/2x
Musk is tapping cowboy-developer arrogance to hide he's stripmining the government to line rich people's pockets (like hedge funds do).
It sucks we have to live through their doomed experiment.
Sigh.
These are the end times people of anything that you have known. Brace for impact!
They completely fail to comprehend even the most basic systems and how they actually operate. They want the world to function on their decision tree and obey their make believe rules.
B/c honestly I think these ppl are not only fine with poor ppl dying, they actively want them to die. It's their faux-noveau Eugenik mindset.
And "poor" means anyone owing less than 1 billion.
It takes a broken person with no boundaries to run with weirdo Thiel - they’re his recruits - and drug addled cartoon villain Musk and do this.
burnout/underpaid: works too many hours and aren’t really productive they just use more time
productivity vampire: their perceived productivity is at the expense of others (toxic behavior) and they leech off the other staff at a greater rate than they add value.
- 10x boy: blasted out "design docs" w/o rationale., just words that came to him. VERY prickly about reviews/pushback because he's so damn smart
- 2x junior dev: approves code w/o actually understanding it. Praised for "fast turnaround on code reviews"
There's a classic text in software development called _The Mythical Man Month_ by Fred Brooks. It's a very important text: in particular, it's the text from which the phrase "Adding resources to an already late project will only make it later" is taken.
He was wrong. There are no such programmers.
It should go without saying that Musk doesn't.
I'm summarising, obv, but ->
...and then make sure they surround them with a team of 1x employees who can cover their weaknesses. Speed isn't the only possible strength
Ask any software QA person about the 10x programmer if you want to see someone hulk out
*& they’re 80% guys.
There aren’t stock option or other bullshit carrots he can dangle here. People will just leave.
Management exploits them, puts them on a pedestal, and then when the person burns out from the pressure, nobody is left who knows what the hell they were working on.
10x is a stupid idea if you think about it.
When they finally fired him and looked at his code, it turned out it wasn't that efficient.
He wasn't a great developer and he was an even worse product manager.
https://osf.io/preprints/psyarxiv/tfjyw_v1
Tech workers solve problems, sometimes problems nobody has faced before. "Think faster!" does not work.
And there are many different skillsets needed.
"10x programmer" is a myth.
Or the metric to determine the “10x” is a meaningless thing that doesn’t map onto the real contribution of a person.
Or both
You know, like Elon.
Lack of standardized training like other engineering professions is to blame
I’ve also seen incredibly broad variation in university outputs. Some 4-yr graduates barely better than a 2-yr tech school. Some graduates with more confidence than knowledge.
The difference between a recent grad and someone with a few years under their belt is massive.
Even more so after 10+ years.
But their project value depended a LOT on personality, insecurities, etc. Some could raise the whole team. Others were just endless drama and conflict - negating their talent.
TL;DR: "most people are useless". The quiet part is ofc "...because of Mysterious Genetic Differences, and testosterone"
Or the 10x programmer pushed out all of the people that *could* pick up the slack.
But the big problem is that nearly everyone in tech thinks they're that 1 in 10,000.
Nothing at all like those that think they are a 10x developer.
More code is often not a good thing! If I am able to add functionality/fix bugs/introduce consistency with a net reduction in LOC I'm thrilled.
it is mostly thanks to bad management and work culture, with bosses not allocating time for teamwork, mentorship, training, therefore making the senior engineer irreplaceable.
eventually, the senior quits and stuff falls into shambles.
Like, 10% of human movement does 100% of the oxygenating. Why does anyone ever do anything other than breathe?
(BTW, I'm glad to see you back.)
https://bsky.app/profile/conways-law.bsky.social/post/3lgy77nejnc2g
Ironically the same folks who wanna devalue labor by writing code with LLMs
Short version: anyone who believes themself to be a 10x programmer definitely is not. anyone who seeks to hire them is an idiot techbro who is high on soylent and double-doses of adderall.
But tech today is vastly more complex with needs in many more disciplines. So stripping down ala Musk just leaves systems that are crap.
If you're eliminating code you're removing technical debt, simplifying systems, and reducing the number of opportunities for future bugs. Adding code does the reverse.
IME people who believe in 10x engineers are just management assholes who don’t understand process and quality control.
Like that guy who claimed to be the world’s fastest amputation doctor and had one operation with 300% mortality.
I will save myself the embarrassment and not admit that I originally thought she was saying she was from Alberta. Just imagine. 😱
"I'm afraid we lost the patient."
"And, the nurse."
"And, the anesthesiologist."
Apocryphal but the patient died and he was going so fast he cut the fingers off one of his assistants who also got gangrene and died, as well as terrifying an observer who also died of shock. (Robert Liston)
The real 10x engineers have done a lot of glue work and empowering others vs. being a 'star'
we live in the dumbest timeline
20% of the population has 80% of the wealth because wealth attracts more wealth.
I dont see how that applies to programming.
and since the manosphere/incel sphere overlaps with the techbro sphere a fair bit, that's how it's ended up there
it's not much different than creationists misrepresenting what evolution is
It sounds like the "manosphere" version of "The law of attraction."
Many examples have the feedback loop of diminishing returns. 20% of your effort might lead to 80% of the results because when you reach 80%, the low-hanging fruit is gone.
Developers with the highest impact on velocity achieve it by mentoring and accelerating their peers, not by churning out reams of C++ or JavaScript.
Prolific developers who don't do that tend to create arcane, hard to maintain systems (and are often difficult to work with).
Or even the next phase.
Or any other way the communication times can be cut, and it's ok for programmers to just make decisions themselves.
sound familiar?
The PURPOSE of the government is not to make money.
It is to serve the public.
Provide services and safety.
That's what it's there for.
If you "save" a few million and that results in even ONE full airliner crashing, you haven't saved anything.
If they move on fast enough they can outrun the bow wave of consequences.
But that's about managerial (lack of) skill, not programmer skill.
1) Can quickly write complex but hard-to-read code
2) Can design code structures easily understood and maintained by others
Type (1) gets a lot of attention, but (2) is more useful to large projects and IMO even harder to find.
A very good coder stares into space for 15 minutes, then writes 10 lines which definitely work.
"Making chalk mark, $1. Knowing where to make mark, $9999."
https://www.dailygrail.com/2025/02/the-bizarre-2014-petition-that-seems-to-have-predicted-america-in-2025/
Read The Mythical Man Month for more.
There's only so many ways to code something.
#2 is "move fast and break things". They don't care if removing a grant for forest divert happens during their DEI purge. #3 Incompetence is really just a side effect of #2.
They're be screaming their throats RAW if the shoe was on the other foot.
To Musk and Trump, we are simply computer-generated characters in a game they are playing. Hell they probably think of each other the same way.
Narcissism is an ugly business.
They'll probably reinstate white layoffs and then put hiring directives in place that eliminate DEI by simply hiring only white folks.
If DOGE corelates voter's party registration with the federal government's payroll, expect even 𝘮𝘰𝘳𝘦 targeted firings and layoffs but of 𝘸𝘩𝘪𝘵𝘦 Dem employees!
He can run 3 companies, so why can't 1 air traffic controller do 3 shifts?
https://bsky.app/profile/mark-ungrin.bsky.social/post/3lid6n6g7wk2g
Blame Curtis Yarvin (amongst others)
https://www.notesfromthecircus.com/p/the-plot-against-america
Way too many people have bought the false narrative that “private always does it better than public”
https://bsky.app/profile/joshtpm.bsky.social/post/3lidvbi23ps2f
However if your theory is you need loyal people running things you would want to have them lower to promote…..
Every movement has its energy at max when it takes power then becomes boring unexciting and routine.
In theory.
I’m not saying it will work but it’s got some logic you can see.
I am not kidding he is a straight up nazi
But, yes, essentially it's REPLACE DEMOCRACY by top-down governance akin to that of a business.
National state institutions must be destroyed to permit "humanity" to develop!!! 😨
And standards
And processes
Etc.
If you want to read more, here’s an article by the author of the book that popularized this claim going over the research he cited again after receiving criticism
I suspect Elon believes the opposite
It's really 10x processes and 10x early decision making.
It's demonstrably false. I've seen those folks try and write financial software in the past to predictable results.
However the balance is a challenge for all us in some capacity.
Shoot, even with that degree I would not have tried to write some of the software they did without expert consultancy.
"Work" can often be busy-making churn nonsense.
Agree that many people could do with more thought and planning and less action.
If an air traffic controller takes less breaks, reads and speaks faster, stops having bathroom breaks and drinks less coffee they could potentially end up doing 1.5 times the work.
If you have 3 controllers and two of them do that you can sack one and still have 3.
- Marketing Manager, $90k/year
- Marketing Assistant - $50k/year
- CRM, IT and Cybersecurity Coordinator - $75k/year
- Sessional Indigenous Studies Instructor
Yeah, it's fun watching them struggle.
I’m sure Musk believes in it tho, as he takes another tote of blow and swigs back the liquid ket while the tree frog sits patiently on the table waiting to be sniffed or rubbed on his eyeballs or whatever you are supposed to do with it.
- the cowboy will do whatever is needed, but you don't want cowboy code in a plane, for example
- a good programmer will code fast, safely, with quality... slower than others in the short term, but in the long term, no maintenance needed
- a large number of programmers who are normal people ("it's a job"). There's nothing wrong with that.
- a small number LOVE programming, and do that as a hobby in addition to as their day job. This has an effect on their skills
- a large number of normal people (and, again, there's nothing wrong with that)
- a few geniuses (as in "Holy CheatSheet of Python Code, that person's brain is on another level")
And most of the time, the need is to get $$$ ASAP.
Which means appearance of quality is more important than actual quality. So, your 10x programmer is usually a cowboy.
That's not a series of unlucky problems. It's just statistics: At one point, when cutting corners is your modus operandi, one of the thing that should (almost) never happen... happen.
You know who blinked with these news?
Work harder, fools, for your tech overlords.
It doesn't scale.
I think there are these 10x programmers but how many are available, how do you recognize and find them, and will they work for you, especially when these DOGE people let their own website open like a barn door and show how clueless they are.
He was a good person, but 0 people skills
So people persist in this thing where it “feels right” but it’s just dunning kreuger of specifics.
They’re a 10x lawyer as well? Oh? They’re not? Well you just got patent trolled so now you’re done.
This is WHY we work in teams.
But then there is another fallacy: that everyone should highly specialize.
The truth lies between these 2 idiotic poles.